Thursday, September 21, 2023

Current El Nino..2023.

Many queries are cropping up on the "El Nino" topic ...Firstly, what is El Nino?

Simply put..An over heating of a tongue of water off the South American Coast.

Caution: All El Nino years may not necessarily mean a weak Monsoon, as seen in the chart below 👇

ONI & El Nino: Characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

 La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

El Niño Advisory ...How is it shaping up ?

*El Niño conditions are observed.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño. 

*El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024).*

The Indian Summer Monsoon 2023 was partially affected by the current developing El Nino. 

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

1 comment:

sset said...

Says el- Nino may not be weak monsoon. What about Southern India - kerala ķarnataka andhra facing worst drought - not a single system in 2023 since biparjoy.
Monsoon has only favored gujarat Rajasthan Maharashtra many parts, central India with series of lows pressure systems leaving Southern India in drought.

19th May .. South West Monsoon season has commenced for India..👇 Monsoon moves into South Andaman Islands... Kerala Expected to get heavy P...