Sunday, August 13, 2023

Posted 13th August:

The Monsoon Axis is positioned North of its normal position. Stubbornly stuck since 10 days near the Himalayan foothills. 

This thus creates a "Break Monsoon " phase. Low rainfall hence is seen in Central India, which includes Maharashtra. 

This "Break Monsoon " is Normal in August,  and records show it can remain for as long as 21 days. However, we expect the Axis to move South by 19th.

This year, we estimate the condition, of lower rainfall in Maharashtra (and Mumbai) to remain till 19th August. 

Mumbai:  The season's rainfall today at Santacuz at 2348 mms (+667 mms), for this day. Colaba seasonal total 1785 mms ( +268 mms).

July had very good, excessive, rainfall breaking the Monthly all time record with 1768 mms,

August has gone dry. Actually it seems comparatively drier after getting surplus. So far in 13 days, August  Mumbai Scruz has got only 30 mms send Colaba 28 mms. (Normal for the whole month is 561 mms). The driest August on record was in 1972, when the month received 108 mms. 

But, we still have 17 days to reach the normal August quota of 561 mms. mms. 

Days have become warmer, reaching almost 32c, and nights are stuffy at 26/27c.

Next week, till 18th at least, Mumbai is not expected to see any recovery in the rainfall intensity. The week will get scanty and patchy showers.

Lakes and Dams:

We may see some drop in levels next week with consumption continuing and taking evaporation into consideration. But, with 50 days of Monsoon remaining, we have hopes.

The Lakes supplying water to Mumbai are The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported is  (82 %) of the total. 

Last year on 11th August 2022 was (94 %) of the total 

In the year 2021 on 11th August 2021 was  (81 %) of the total.


Rainfall for Northern States - Outlook till 16th August:

Continuing with our earlier "Lookout":

As the Monsoon trough will remain close to the Himalayan foothills for next 1-2 days, there is a chance of very heavy rainfall across the low and mid-ranges of Uttarakhand and heavy rainfall for parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu regions for next 24 hours. 

Parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR may also see moderate rain/thundershowers in patches during evening of 14th to night of 16th August. 


sset said...

Southern India serious drought
Worse than 2016-2017.
Bangalore hot at 35c
Tamilnadu heat wave. N.m

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology

Issued Tuesday 15 August 2023

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.

El Niño Alert continues – El Niño remains likely

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model forecasts suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during spring. A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia and can increase the drying influence of El Niño.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the western hemisphere and currently weak. Some climate models are forecasting a moderately strong MJO pulse over the Pacific Ocean in the coming week; this could assist development towards El Niño conditions.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral and is expected to remain neutral for the coming fortnight. A neutral SAM is associated with typical climate conditions for Australia.

The current status of the ENSO Outlook and other climate drivers does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across most of southern and eastern Australia from September to November. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecasts.

Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climates. Global sea surface temperatures were the highest on record for their respective months during April to July 2023, with July also being the equal-highest month on record (according to the ERA5 reanalysis). July 2023 was also the hottest month globally in terms of 2 metre air temperature.

Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction, by 10 to 20%, in cool season (April to October) rainfall in recent decades. This is due to a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

More information

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Next update expected by 29 August 2023

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