Posted 10th August:

As mentioned several times, the Monsoon Axis , creating a "Break Monsoon" condition in large regions of India , is persisting. 

Resulting in low rainfall and rising temperatures in NW India and Coastal A.P. and T.N.

Now, for the weekend 10th- 14th August, we see the Axis stubborn in its Northern location. 

Result: Low rainfall intensity continues in Central and Peninsula India, at least till 15th.

Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka will see very minimal rainfall.

Mumbai: This weekend will get very little rainfall, with maybe a short burst in small pockets. around 5-7mms.

With the Lakes at 82% (as on 10th), we feel its ok as yet. But beyond 15th, if it remains dry, we may have to consider the levels drop intensity due to consumption and evaporation.

Pune: Light rainfall this weekend

Marathwada: Very little rainfall expected till 14th. Drying conditions in the fields. May require some watering after weeds removal. 

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We find a new study on the El Nino and Indian Summer Monsoon connection..a study and report is available to Vagaries. Shall be summarized and put up on 10th Evening. 

Interesting reading for Meteorologists and everone interested.