Thursday, October 25, 2018

Posted Thursday Evening:

1. UAC has formed in the Gulf of Mannar. But not expected to activate the situation to the extent wanted. Maybe another few days wait for NEM till UAC forms in the Bay 

2. Some rain was experienced on Thursday South of Pune and in the Modak Sagar region. Pune saw drizzles.
This weekend, Friday/Saturday/Sunday, dry weather expected in the country barring some rains in the North East States. 

3. No change in day temperatures. Nights are expected to drop by 2/3c in North/North West /Central India and Interior Maharashtra..

This weekend will be dry...., Nasik & Pune can see 12/14c.  ( From today's 18c in Pune)
Mumbai : After seeing a Low of 20.4c on Wednesday morning, Mumbai temperature shot up to 37.5c on Wednesday and 36.8c on Thursday. (Santa Cruz).
Mumbai will have a clear dry weekend with days around 35/36c and nights between 20/22c.


sset said...

Third failed attempt for NEM (northeast monsoon) to start. Looks like complete failure of NEM 2018. Infact in few years NEM will be only in text books. Useless cyclones daye,thitle,luban have wrecked the formation. All rains are going to orissa,NE India, arabian sea into saudi leading to chronic drought in South east India. High time environment minister, PM Modi implement river linking. SE India 1 year of rain followed by 5 years of drought - worse than desert!

sset said...

After two ‘false alarms’, meteorologists still have no clue when the northeast monsoon will set in or why it is delayed. The India Meteorological Department hopes the rains will start by October-end as a low pressure may form over west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal around October 29. The onset of northeast monsoon has been delayed every year since 2015.
“But the low pressure has to first develop. Then it should be in the location we have predicted and move accordingly. Depending on these factors, we can expect rain around October 30 or November 1. If the rain sustains, we will declare the onset of the monsoon,” said S Balachandran, deputy director general, RMC, Chennai.
Independent meteorologists say a cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal may again disturb the easterly winds, which are critical for the arrival of monsoon. Easterly winds playing hide and seek is among reasons for the delay.
“It may disturb the flow pattern. Moisture required for the monsoon also has to develop,” said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at a private weather forecasting company. On Friday, the skies over the city were partly cloudy with the temperature between 31.2 deg C and 27 deg C. The RMC has predicted that the weather will not change for the next 48 hours, with generally cloudy skies. Maximum and Minimum temperatures are likely to be around 34 and 26 deg Celsius respectively.
While sustained rainfall in Kerala is the signature of the southwest monsoon, the weatherman looks for sustained rainfall all along coastal Tamil Nadu— in Chennai, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Vedaranyam, Pamban and Tuticorin— to predict the northeast monsoon. October 20 is the normal onset of the northeast monsoon with a deviation of five to seven days.
One of the reasons for the delay, according to Met officials, is the easterly winds. The northeasterly-easterly winds, one of the main requirements for the onset of the monsoon, began blowing from early October and so the IMD predicted the onset on October 7. But two weather systems— one each in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea— disturbed the flow pattern. When the easterlies recovered around October 13, meteorologists hoped a weather system would bring rain to coastal Tamil Nadu, a typical signature of the onset of the northeast monsoon.
Though factors such as winds, moisture, and withdrawal of the southwest monsoon were favourable, there was no weather system in the Bay that could bring the rains. A low pressure that was predicted over the Gulf of Thailand and was expected to move towards the Andaman sea too failed to bring rain.
“At present, the surface pressure is higher than normal over the TN region, when it has to be lower than normal for the arrival of the monsoon. The winds, however, are reasonably strong,” said former IMD official YEA Raj. “Parts of southern Tamil Nadu have been receiving rainfall for the last two days. We hope it will spread to other parts of the state in the next two days.”
Further, the delayed monsoon since 2015 has left weathermen puzzled. Raj said the reasons were not clear. The northeast monsoon is considered ‘delayed’ if it arrives a week after October 20. In 2017, the monsoon arrived on October 27, while in 2016 and 2015 it commenced on October 30 and 28, respectively.

sset said...

Chennai Waits With Bated Breath For Northeast Monsoon As Andhra Officials Cut Krishna Water Supply With Andhra Pradesh (AP) irrigation officials pulling the plug on the Krishna water supply to Poondi reservoir from the Kandaleru dam on Sunday (28 October), Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB) officials are now in distress, as reported by Deccan Chronicle. Reports say that Andhra Pradesh released Krishna water last month, with the Poondi reservoir so far having received 1.87 tmc of water from the Kandaleru reservoir. The once bone-dry Poondi reservoir has 805 mcft of water. “Going by the current scenario, the water storage at four lakes including Poondi and Chembarambakkam lakes stood at 1,798 million cubic feet (mcft) against a total capacity of 11,257 mcft. The Chennai city would have plunged into a water crisis, had Krishna water not been released,” said a PWD official on condition of anonymity, saying that AP officials assured of releasing water once the dam fills again. Meanwhile, the water officials in Chennai are awaiting anxiously the coming of the still elusive Northeast monsoon.With meteorological department unable to forecast properly, the CMWSSB is currently only drawing surface water for the drinking water supply. The officials, however, are hopeful of heavy rainfall due to the oncoming northeast monsoon.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...