Saturday, October 20, 2018

Posted 22nd October Morning:
The South West Monsoon has withdrawn from India. The UAC, previously off the west coast, has weakened and shifted South over the Lakshdweep/Maldives region.

Keeping hopes and eyes open for the Bay Low, to announce commencement of the NEM.

Almost dry weather over the country next few days.
Mumbai remains warm with east winds.

Posted 20th October:

South West Monsoon having withdrawn from all regions of the country except Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The SWM lingers on in this region due to an Upper Air Circulation off the Coastal regions. Likely to dissipate and withdraw the Monsoon by 22nd October. 
Keeping the views open for the NEM commencement.

Night temperatures likely to fall by 2/3c in NW India, Central India and Interior Mah.

Mumbai: Almost clear hazy days .Warm in the day and likely fall of night temperatures from Monday by 2/3c.

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Huge WAVE of chilling temperatures to sweep into UK from Canada

The Met Office has warned Britain is set to get “quite chilly” next week with the overall trend

until early November expected to be “colder than average.

Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin: “Our old friend the jet stream is on a fast-moving ribbon of air where that cold air plunging south.”

-The Met Office has warned Britain is set to get “quite chilly” next week with the overall trend until early November expected to be “colder than average.
Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin: “Our old friend the jet stream is on a fast-moving ribbon of air where that cold air plunging south.”
As high pressure establishes itself next week, Monday will be slightly below average.
According to the Met Office’s forecast for next week there will be a rural frost in central areas,
Later in the week is when the trend of more cold is likely to establish itself.
Other forecasters have even warned of severe snowfall at the end of the month with temperatures plummeting further.

 From "The Express" ...Home of The Daily and Sunday Express

3 comments:

sset said...

The phrase "Keeping the views open for the NEM commencement." is not looking good.

All systems are going either towards Orissa, NE states or Oman/Saudi. Entire south east India (Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh,south east interior Karnataka) is becoming desert. Geography has to re-written for new desert regions. Almost every year NE monsoon is either failing, or very weak or system goes somewhere else. Only 1 month left.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology

Issued 23 October 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole may be underway

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

ENSO Alert dial
Current status: El Niño ALERT
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway.

An El Niño and a positive IOD increase the likelihood of a dry and warm end to the year across most of Australia. They also raise the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, while there are typically fewer tropical cyclones in the Australian region.

The surface of the tropical Pacific has warmed over the past month due to weakening of the trade winds. Sub-surface waters also remain warmer than average, increasing the potential for further warming at the surface. However, atmospheric indicators in the tropical Pacific such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness and trade winds, are yet to indicate that the ocean and atmosphere have coupled and hence are reinforcing each other. A positive feedback between the ocean and atmosphere is what defines and sustains an El Niño event.

International climate models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, increasing the chance of coupling occurring in the coming months. Six of eight models predict that El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded in November.

The IOD index has exceeded the positive threshold (+0.4 °C) for five of the last six weeks. If these values persist for anther fortnight, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year. Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD event will decay during November. The IOD is linked with drier weather in southern and central Australia during spring, but typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.
More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au

Next update expected on 7 November 2018

Rash Brawler said...

The dew point has gone down to 11 - 22% relative humidity as per the Airport Metar at 12:00 noon today. The humidity levels have finally gone down over Mumbai. Hopefully we should see some reduction in temperatures in evening / night.

Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast:  Posted:   15 NOV 2018    Time :   11.00 am IST, 053000 UTC Position of "GAJA...