Monday, May 14, 2018

Posted 14th May Night"

Low pressure formed in the Arabian Sea will not have any effect on the Sub Continent Weather,
Somali Currents may strengthen to some extent.

As mentioned in Monsoon Watch -3 Part -2 (Additional), the estimated dates of arrival of Monsoon in India remains unchanged...

SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 20th.May (12/15th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 23rd May 2018.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 14th of June.

Vagaries would estimate the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2018 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 29th/30th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 2nd/4th June (1st June)...
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, As the Seasonal Low strengthens, Monsoon could "slide " up the coast to be in Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th/10th June (5th June).... NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.

Mumbai by 12th/14th June (9th June)..... Pre Monsoon thunder showers in Mumbai could start from around 4th/5th June 2018.


Abizer kachwala said...

Congratulations Rajesh sir,your forecast is now being featured in the DNA newspaper.This is the success of this blog which is highlighted here as Rajesh sir's forecast is considered to be the most accurate.
Here's the article:
Early onset of monsoon likely this year: India Meteorological Department, Skymet
Virat A SinghVirat A Singh | Updated: May 16, 2018, 05:55 AM IST

Picture for representation

Mumbaikars are eagerly waiting to know when the monsoons will arrive this year and bring some relief from the heat and humidity. The onset of monsoons was delayed by two days last year and 10 days in 2016.

As per officials from India Meteorological Department (IMD), normally, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala by June 1 and takes around 10 days to reach Mumbai, thereby making June 10 the probable date of monsoon arrival.

Both IMD and Skymet (a private weather forecasting agency) have recently predicted an early monsoon this year. While Skymet states on its portal that the south westerlies will hit Kerala by May 28, IMD has predicted May 25 as the date. Mumbai-based Vagaries of Weather (VoW), a group run by weather enthusiasts, predicts that monsoons will arrive in Kerala by June 2 or 4, which means it would reach Mumbai by June 12 or 14.

Refusing to comment on the predictions of Skymet and VoW, an IMD official said several factors affect the arrival of monsoon. "Our predictions are based on our weather models. However, depending on weather conditions, there can be changes in the onset of monsoon. So no one can give a fixed date until the last 15 days. Last year our prediction was on spot," he said.

Mahalaxmi-based Rajesh Kapadia, who has been in the field of weather forecasting for over 45 years now and also runs the VoW blog, said that as per their observations, southwest winds should hit Kerala by June 2/4, and basis the usual progress, it could slide up the coast to reach Goa by June 8 or 10. "Pre-monsoon thunder showers in Mumbai could start from around June 4 or 5 and monsoons will likely arrive in the city by June 12 to 14," he said. He added that this can be confirmed by next week depending on the presence of a system in Arabian sea.

"While we have been hearing of an usual onset of monsoons this year, all we can hope for is that it is on time and is not delayed too much, as the heat has been becoming unbearable," said Nitin Sawant an Andheri resident.

Interestingly, Skymet stated that there has been huge variation in the onset dates since 1971 and there has been only three occasions when monsoons arrived on June 1. These years were 1980, 2000, and 2013. "As per the records, the earliest arrival of monsoon was on May 18, 2004, while the latest arrival was on June 18, 1972. Out of the 47 years, there have been 20 years when the monsoons arrived on June 1 or before, and 10 times, monsoons arrived even before May 26," it stated.

Mumbai can witness some light rain around May 18 or 19 due to the presence of a cyclone in the west coast. However, the maximum temperature of Mumbai will remain around 34 to 35 degrees Celsius

Konkani Don said...

Raining in Chiplun

Dipesh said...

Hey there !
I'm a big fan of your site.
Have been following you guys for the last three years.
All of you guys are excellent.
One request though please let us know as to when you shall come out with more news, snippets and reports.
Thank you.
Best regards

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