Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Monsoon Watch -3... 2018 (Additional)...May 9th 2018.
Monsoon Arrival Dates Estimate.

The arrival date is calculated seeing today's position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress/developments. This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised later, when the puzzle pieces get better arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.

Arabian Sea Branch: The LWD parameter is not strong, and developed. Otherwise, There is not much improvement in some of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, now affected by the "getting organised" Somali current winds and the equatorial winds at the equator. They can recover provided the winds regroup fast.

On these calculations, Vagaries would estimate the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2018 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 29th/30th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 2nd/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, As the Seasonal Low strengthens, Monsoon could "slide " up the coast to be in Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th/10th June (5th June). NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.

 Mumbai by 12th/14th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thunder showers could start from around 4th/5th June 2018.

Bay Branch: A weak Western Disturbance  was active the Northern regions of the sub continent.Violent thunder Storms/Dust Storms ravaged through NW and North India due to inter action of WD and Eastern moist winds and of course the land heating.
North Temperatures have dropped in the last few days, considerably.(See Map below)Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the the pulses from the East in the Bay to resume for Low formations. 

SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 20th.May (12/15th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 23rd May 2018.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 14th of June.

We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date  (as is the usual practise in Vagaries' MWs).

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------End of MW-3 Part 2 (Additional)
Back to back Western Disturbances interacting with moist easterly winds and helped by high temperatures caused instability in the atmosphere in NW and North India. Resulting in violent thunderstorms/Dust storms.

Low temperatures recorded in North India ( reproduced from Navdeep Dahiya
DATED: 9 MAY 2018
Balachar: 17.1°c
Hosiyarpur: 17.4°c  Fatehgarhsahib: 18.2°c
Kapurthala: 18.2°c  Tarn taran: 18.6°c
Jalandhar: 19.0°c  Ludhiana: 19.3°c  Amritsar: 19.6°c
Moga: 19.9°c  Patiala: 20.1°c  Bhatinda: 20.5°c
Chandigarh: 20.0°c
Yamunanagar: 15.4°c
Ambala: 16.5°c
Kaithal: 16.6°c  Panchkula: 17.2°c  Karnal: 17.4°c
Kurukshetra: 17.4°c  Narayangarh: 18.0°  Sonipat: 18.2°c
Uchani: 18.5°c Panipat: 18.6°c Israna: 19.0°c
Fatehbad: 19.4°c Hisar: 20.1°c Rohtak: 20.7°c
Jhajjar: 21.0°c  Faridabad: 21.8°c  Gurgaon: 21.8°c
Pusa(iari): 19.0°c
Narela: 20.1°c  Mungeshpur: 20.4°c
LodhiRoad: 21.0°c  Jafarpur: 21.6°c  Safdarjung: 22.4°c
Muzzafarnagar: 17.4°c
Meerut: 18.6°c  Bareilly: 19.3°c
Hindon: 19.5°c  Bahraich: 20.6°c  Aligarh: 21.6°c
RAJASTHAN-  Siker: 20.0°c..Churu: 21.8°c
Data: IMD


Vinod Desai said...

Hoping for the best..
Meanwhile clouds have started appearing in mumbai sky.

Karan Kumbhar said...

IMD forecasts 25 may onset over Kerala.
While skymet forecasts 28 may.

But Rajesh sir's predictions have been more accurate so all faith here .

Abizer kachwala said...

Yes,Rajesh Sir's forecast has been accurate and the one to rely heavily has failed miserably to forecast monsoon onset dates and quantum ,with merely 2-3 forecasts turning true over past few years.IMD gave wrong forecast even for the heavy of 30th august in mumbai,where the next day turned up sunny ...exactly as per rajesh sir's prediction.

Konkani Don said...

Great post sir. The monsoon watch series post are useful for ordinary people like me to know detailed knowledge of what causes south west monsoon in India.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...