Thursday, February 18, 2010
Summer Nudge from South:
Current day temperatures have started showing a rising trend, especially from the southern most tip of the Indian sub-continent. As discussed earlier, the normal on set of summer, that is, the warming trend starts from the south, and pushing its way up north, through outt the month of March.
The highest of 37c, on 17th. was at Kurnool, in the south. The warming has actually started from the Thailand/Myanmar region, with Prome, in Myanmar being the hottest in Asia yesterday at 39c.
But, still, this warming is a bit early for the season. On the anomaly map of the maximum temperatures of the 17th. it is seen that the southern tip is above normal for this time, and the central region of the south is very much on the higher side of the normal.
Now, how can this upward warm trend be halted, at least for now? By pushing it back southwards, with the help of a W.D.
And, the good news is, that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu & Kashmir from February 23. NCEP forecasts this W.D as ‘active', like the recent W.D. which had brought heavy rains and snow over the western Himalayas and adjoining plains last week.
On an extended forecast, NCEP predicts rains for north-west India upto end of February, and maybe into first days of March.
Hence, we can expect a southward shift of lower day temperatures from 23rd, and even bring back the south to normal day temperatures.
The 925 hpa map (IMD) shows a confluence of winds over southern and adjoining east India. This explains the clouds, in a south-westerly belt from Orissa to Kerala thru Vidharbh and Karnataka, and light rains in the east-central region, and extending south-west into Vidharbh and interior Karnataka.
Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere continues to shiver, with snow now covering new and extended areas of Europe.
The coldest in the Northern Hemisphere yesterday was :Ojmjakon (Siberia) -55c, in N.America, Euraka Airport, -39c,in Europe, Suomussalmi (Sweden) -37c, in India coldest were Darbuk (Ladhak), at -34c and Keylong ( H.P.) at -5c , and in U.K.Tulloch Bridge at -15c.
Wow, thats cold all over !!