Friday, January 22, 2010


Himalayan Blunder on "so called" Climate Change"



Time and again, and in an exhaustive 4 part series last month, I have written the "improbilites" of the so called Global Warming, or Climate Change, or whatever they want to name it as. Quite a few reputable environmental scientists from around the world do not buy into the hysteria of global warming. The earth has a natural history of warming and cooling on which man has negligible impact. Climatic changes are more likely due to the sun’s energy output, variations in the earth’s rotation around the sun, volcanic activity and many other factors that we do not understand.


The association between CO2 levels and temperature is debatable. The famous CO2 hockey hook graph is arguably “created” from false data as revealed by the recent climate-gate scandal involving the revelation of global warming scientists destroying, hiding and altering data to support their man-created global warming argument.


My views against the GW theory has always been firm and, now has been further substantiated with fresh ammo. But, I urge readers to not blindly believe alarmists,or me. But, form your opinion by reading ahead.


The IPCC was set up precisely to ensure that world leaders had the best possible scientific advice on climate change.


Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report on the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming.
A central claim was that the world's glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.


The report in question is the second of four issued by the IPCC in 2007 on global warming. This 838-page document had chapters on each continent.
The paragraph starts, “Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world.”


*It says that if the Earth continues to warm, the “likelihood of them disappearing by the 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high".


*The paragraph says: “Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 square kilometers by the year 2035.”
(Cogley said there are only 33,000 square kilometers of glaciers in the Himalayas).
A table says that between 1845 and 1965, the Pindari Glacier shrank by 2,840 metres. Then comes a math mistake: It says that’s a rate of 135.2 metres a year, when it really is only 23.5 metres a year.


Now, the errors were in a half-page section of the Asia chapter.
The section got it wrong as to how fast the thousands of glaciers in the Himalayas are melting.
All the mistakes appear in a subsection that suggests glaciers in the Himalayas could melt away by the year 2035—hundreds of years earlier than the data actually indicates. The year 2350 apparently was transposed as 2035,” the Associated Press reported.


How did this happen?


A letter being published online later today in Science Magazine says the IPCC picked up the date from a report by the World Wildlife Fund, which has since corrected its error. WWF picked up the date from a quote in the popular science magazine, New Scientist.


But the final clue to the mystery may lie in an obscure study that discussed the global fate of glaciers in the year 2350. Flip around a few of those digits and....


This error translated a scare, and meant that in a mere 25 years, large parts of Asia would lose the rivers that sustain the farms and lives of half a billion people.


It's the latest news to hit the headlines and throws yet more negative light on the IPCC who are still feeling the effects of the Climategate emails that were leaked to the public last year. (Mentioned in my series on GW last month).


Like economics and the financial markets,Climate science is prone to many variables and fluctuations, and it is impossible to predict, with any degree of precision, what will result and when.


For instance, despite all the dire warnings about global warming, the last 10 years have been cooler than the year that went before—mostly because 1998 was a particularly hot year. Such facts make us cautius when making firm predictions as to when exactly the earth will have warmed by 2 degrees Celsius, or whether it will actually happen at all !


Even though this is a quite different issue from the hyped up GW hysteria that now stands exposed, on the issue of when the Himalayan glaciers will melt, it is worth keeping in mind that even bogus science becomes mainstream fact. Modus Operandi: They would find some "scientists" to back it up, be little any one else who claims otherwise, hammer it home, and eventually, it would become fact


In that sense, the world may now be ready for a more careful debate that focuses on reliable probabilities than on dubious certainties.


By the way, the good news is that there will still be glaciers in the Himalayas in 2035.


Good news for the Yeti. We should not be seeing be seeing TV images like in the polar bear, (where one is stranded on a chuck of ice because of global warming). Nor should we be subject to viewing an image of a Yeti family huddled around a cooler full of ice trying to stay cool in the unrelenting super-heated CO2 polluted atmosphere.


There's another old axiom: "the little boy that cried wolf"


Which will sink first? The climate change scam or the earth? My money is on climate change which has hull down to bridge level. The earth will not warm and will outlast our species.


We do not need to throw our money on solutions that won’t work. No one is absolutely sure a problem exists regarding global warming generally or whether we’re the ones causing the problem.


Its for the media to turn off the heat now, from this GW topic and "typo" errors.

kapadias@gmail.com



1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Reference to original work by Russian Scientist is mentioned in this link http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/12/01/global-warming-and-glacier-melt-down-debate-a-tempest-in-a-teapot/

Posted Monday 25th Night: Mumbai: Rain fury eased to some extent from Monday evening, Tuesday will see occasional showers with a few hea...