Thursday, November 05, 2009

Low in South Arabian Sea

Streamline map from IMD today indicates the initial formation of a low in the south Arabian Sea.

Now, many models show this moving northwards into the Arabian Sea, but, stopping short at 15N, off Goa. Finally, as I mentioned, it may fizzle out due to the passing of an upper air W.D. in the northern plains of the sub-continent.
The CMC and ECMWF both models confirm the system upto off the Goa coast around the 9th.
Moderate rains are likely in all the regions of the southern peninsula due to the "pull" from the north-east by the system. Heavy rains can start in kerala on the weekend.
Approaching W.D. can precipitate rains in the northern plains and snow in the hills on the weekend. Hence initial increase in night temperatures, but to fall next week

Mumbai: Skies getting partly cloudy from Saturday. Rise in night temperatures from the present 23c to 25c. As of now, light rain may be possible on Monday.

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