Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Thank God for small mercies !
We had earlier discussed the stubborn resistance in the monsoon halting its southward withdrawal progress, at the 20N line, that is north Maharashtra/M.P. border, holding on since 15th.september.

Well, all for a reason. Good, and bad. Southern states like Karnataka, Goa and A.P. had too much of the rains in the 1st week of October burst, causing flooding and loss of lives. But, also improving the water levels.

Maharashtra, had a good spell too, causing some damage and flooding.

But for Mumbai, the October rains were very very usefull, and with almost 175 mms of rain in the 1st week of the month. The lakes levels supplying water have increased, and 2 lakes have actually overflowed on the 5th.of October.

Now, for Mumbai, the rainy season is almost over with. An odd chance, say 20%, of a thundershower on Friday evening, at the most.
Drop in humidity in the next 2 days will be a welcome relief, but now i can imagine the days getting to 34-35c, by the end of this week.

Yes ! The monsoon should push down southwards now, from Thursday. The 200 hpa winds do indicate the same, as the winds are seein veering around the 20N line today.

Very limited rains could be expected in the south too next 7 days.

But, the promise of more systems from the Bay holds good. Most of the international models predict a low in the Bay around the 15/16th. Now, that, I repeat, would be the inauguration of the north-east monsoon. The T.N. coast and A.P. can expect commencement of rains from the 15/16th, or around that time, depending on the exact date of the formation of the low.

For the north, look out for drop in night temperatures from the 8th. itself. Those regions with night temperatures in the early 20s, will drop to 18/19c, and those regions in the late 20s, will go down by 3/4c, next few nights.

Monsoon Summary:
For 2009: The June to September rain deficit has been assessed at 23 % as the southwest monsoon figures were officially closed by IMD on 30th. September, making it the second worst monsoon in the last 37 years.
The deficit climbed up close to the 23.9 % recorded in recent memory (1972). The next worst is the 24.9 % recorded way back in 1918. And 1899 was -26%. Lowest ever was 1877 at -29%.
Some related facts about the wet spots of Maharashtra, Mahableshwar and Lonavala.
This year, M'shwar recieved 3811 mms of rain, (normal= 6200). Almost near the lowest ever of 3545mm in 1899.
Lonavala recieved 3476 (estimated normal= 4500).
All rain figures upto september, as previous year's figures relate to that period.

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