Sub-continent Weather:


1. Northern region will have some light rains and snow in the upper most northern areas. A W.D. is expected topass thru the region next few days. The W.D. will pass thru quickly and precipitate for a day or two. The nights have cooled down into the teens now. (Map). After the W.D. that is say after Divali, I expect a further drop in the night temperatures, and even the days will get a bit cooler.

2. As per the MSLP map, there is a trough leading into the bay. This will result in some rain in the north-east.


3. The southern - most peninsula will get light rain, more so in Kerala. Its the result of the remant moisture of the withdrawing monsoon.

4. A high has settled down in the central regions of India. Ensuring clear weather and cooler nights this week.






El-Nino Status:
The following UPDATE is prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 13 October 2009.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
•Niño 4 ~ 1.0ºC•Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC•Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC•Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.7)ºC

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.



Early winter in the European Alps :

"Austrian mountains have seen up to 45cm of snow as Arctic weather has swept through the country. The weather station at Rudolfshütte in Salzburg, which is at 2000 metres above sea level, had received the most snow - 45cm - on the night of Mon/Tues. High wind had accompanied the snow, with gusts of up to 150km/h reported on the Schneeberg in Lower Austria and gusts of more than 100km/h in many areas. Such high winds, the agency said, were recorded on average only once every 25 years. The snow in the mountains is a taste of things to come for some provincial capitals, which are expected to see their earliest snowfalls in history this week. Josef Haselhofer from ZAMG said yesterday the cold weather would probably result in the first snow cover in provincial capitals before 20 October in history and added Innsbruck, Salzburg and St. Pölten were likely to see snow. The record for early snow in provincial capitals was set in 2007, when snow remained on the ground in some of them from 20 to 24 October."


kapadias@gmail.com