Carrying on from my last posting,I had indicated the formation of a "high"in the North Pakistan/India region to begin.Well, the "high"is not establishing itself as required,in fact the contour maps indicate a "high" to have formed as on 27th.March.but just around North India,not extending into the west.This is because the temperatures are not conducive enough,not high enough ,to fasten the formation.In fact,the map shows the whole of N.India in "purple "shade,that is ,below normaland most of India in the green (normal) area.
As a result of the "High" not forming,the appraoching W.D. may yet again give some rain/snow in the Northern parts of Pakistan/India on 31st.March/1st.April,as it can push through a weak "high".
But,still,it may be too early to "push"the monsoon date ahead because of this develpoment,as with the passing of this W.D. the area may heat up fast again (which it will in all probabilities).Then the formation of the "high" can be fast ,and give way to the seasonal "Low" within a week or so.
The formation of the latest cyclone in the southern hemisphere today, is another parameter to be observed for the monsoon.These cyclones down below, if extended beyond 31st.March,tend to hold the ICTZ below the equator ,when, actually it should start its northward journey from around 10th.April. But still,we should watch the formation of cyclones down below once April begins.