Monsoon Development Slow but steady

 Posted 4th June Morning:

Brief analysis of present weather conditions: 

The UAC over the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka/Goa coast is resulting in Thundershowers in these regions and adjoining Ghats. This is expected to fizzle out in the next 2-3 days. 

The low pressure regions over the South Indian ocean are governing the wind flow of the Somali jet (850 hPa). This is resulting in weak westerlies over Kerala. As of June 3, the day started off warm in Kerala with thunderstorms formations being witnessed towards evening and night. The mentioned low pressure regions over the South Indian ocean are expected to drift away southeastward over the next 2-3 days. 

Vagaries expects the westerlies along the southern Arabian Sea off Kerala coast to strengthen gradually and extend till 600 hPa by the weekend. 

Situation is being monitored closely and once the defined criteria are met, we expect to announce SWM arrival over Kerala.

Another UAC to the east of Sri Lanka. may be affecting the wind pattern

Analysis contribution from Vagarian Shreyas  Dhavale

This is Vagaries' views and may not tally with other agencies. Please refer to official announcements from Govt. Establishments. 

Posted 3rd June 3 pm IST. 

Monsoon still shy of touching The Indian Mainland.. Kerala.

The persisting UAC off the South Maharashtra/ Karnataka coast had precipitated pre monsoon showers on 2nd in Konkan ( Ratnagiri 21 mms, Mumbai 10 mms, Harnai 13 mms), and in Interior Maharashtra ( Mahableshwar 51 mms)Aurangabad 31 mms, Parbhani 10 mms.) 

But the rains in Kerala was less on 2nd.

Thus preventing the Monsoon from further advance into Kerala on 3rd( The Upper winds are NW). 

Kerala at 3pm IST on Thursday.. Clouding -in -waiting off shore

Further advance after Kerala into Karnataka not before 7th.

Proper Monsoon still not setting in Marathwada before 13th June. 

 Posted 2nd June 2 pm

Monsoon skips 1st June date.. Not seen around!

Monsoon has again played truant and the necessary winds and parameters are disturbed, this time by an Low in the Arabian Sea off the

Karnataka/Maharashtra coast, and as it is embedded in the Stronger Northern portion of the off shore trough along West Coast.

Still, Kerala got some marginal rains as on 2nd Morning.

Now, this Low will fizzle out, moving away by 3rd June and allow the Monsoon winds to strengthen . And subsequently, re allot another date, 3rd/4th June to move into Kerala. (As a weaker current).

Monsoon will gather momentum along Karnataka /Goa coast and progress towards Goa by around 8th June.

Mumbai: The system off the Maharashtra Coast has brought the Pre Monsoon showers as mentioned in our earlier Mumbai Forecast. Mumbai will see some thunder showers on 2nd/3rd/4th June. 

Pre Monsoon rain showers will continue till the 11th, before that proper Monsoon is not expected.

Pune: Pre Monsoon Thunder showers will continue till 4th June.

Goa: Showers will continue in Goa till 7th/8th June...Expecting the Monsoon to advance around 8th/9th.

Kolkata: Not expecting Monsoon before 12th June.

Delhi and Haryana: Monsoon expected roughly between 24th/28th June.

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Tap on image

Wednesday early morning thunderstorm.. Target Mumbai

Pre Monsoon  Rain progress in Mumbai from UAC on Tuesday Evening

RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2021 TO 31-5-2021

 

Mumbai scruz... 48.2 mms in 12 hrs from 8.30 am on 31st....

Mumbai pre Monsoon showers on 31st May... Rainfall from 8.30 to 2.30.

Andheri (W) 40.3

Andheri (E) 36.3

Milan subway 24.1

Ram Mandir 21

Goregaon 18

Bhandup 15.2

Vikhroli 11.1

Ghatkopar 6.6

Bandra 4.6

Chembur 3

Kurla 1.5

Mulund 1.3

Posted 30th night

On seeing this UAC , Monsoon progress seems likely in 48 hrs

Posted 30th May 2021:

Weather for Aurangabad and Marathwada Farmers for 4 days from 30th May:

Pre Monsoon  Thunder Showers are expected in Aurangabad Region and Marathwada for the next 4 days. These are not the Monsoon , but only pre monsoon. Will benefit soil conditions for sowing. Sowing to be done after proper Monsoon is set..maybe around mid June.

---------------------------------------------------औरंगाबाद आणि मराठवाडा येथील 30 मे पासून 4 दिवस हवामान:

विवार, 30 मे 2021

30 मे 2021 रोजी पोस्ट केलेले:

औरंगाबाद आणि मराठवाडा येथील 30 मे पासून 4 दिवस हवामान:

औरंगाबाद विभाग आणि मराठवाड्यात पुढील चार दिवस पूर्व मान्सून थंडर सरी बरसण्याची शक्यता आहे. हे मान्सून नसून केवळ मान्सूनपूर्व असतात. पेरणीसाठी मातीच्या परिस्थितीचा फायदा होईल. योग्य पावसाळा तयार झाल्यावर पेरणी करा. जूनच्या मध्यभागी.

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With pre monsoon rainfall and lower and upper winds fulfilling the conditions slowly, a weak monsoon current is entering Kerala next 48 hrs...around 1st June.(Delayed by a few days due to non fulfilling parameters

Below  is the rainfall in Kerala as on 30th morning.