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On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

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By Mark Vogan

The low pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat Region has become less marked, and the pressure measures 1008 mb.

The UAC previously over south Kerala and neighbourhood now has has merged with the above system.

With this, as we witness the Arabian Sea systems now fizzling out, a marked decrease in rains in Mah and Gujarat.

But, a marked increase in rains is on the anvil. In the east. A low is expected to form by tomorrow, off the T.N. coast, and, as a result, the state's coast shall receive copious rainfall from tomorrow. Chennai is also in for some heavy rains from Thursday evening.

The low will ride on an easterly pulse, and travel west, across T.N. and precipitate rains over Kerala as well on Friday.

Mumbai weather page updated.

The 2 back to back lows from the Arabian Sea has resulted in heavy moisture incursion and clouding from the SW into Rajasthan, Gujarat and Central India causes day temperatures to drop. Lower by 10-12c below normal for the day.

yes sir ! Vagaries mumbai forecast results quite accurate, for Tuesday evening thunder showers and pre dawn rain on wednesday!

Some weather pics, cumulus thunder clouds build up, taken in Goa, on 18th. November/19th. November. Rest of the trip pics in Goa link on the right of this blog (for those interested).

From our Partner Blog: Severe cold coming to U.K..read on International page of Vagaries.

For the Northern regions of the sub-continent, its still "winter-in-waiting".

With no W.D. to bring in the winter snow and rains, the temperatures remain above nornmal.

A W.D. is in normal terms a cold front. Its cold air pushes the prevailing warm air over the region, causing condensation and cumulus cloud formations are seen as the W.D. (front) approaches a region. Soon due to quick cooling and fast cloud formations caused by the pushing upwards of the air, there are violent hailstorms and heavy snows in the Northern regions.

Then, in a typical W.D, the skies clear within 2 days, and the rear of the front is cold and dry.And these cold dry winds blow southwards towards central India.

But all that is yet to be seen in the North. Like I said, due to absence of the stronger cold dry northely winds,the current rains are "taking over"the western/central regions, and allowing the systems from the Arabian Sea to push in moisture into central and northern India.

The lowest temperatures in the extreme North are not typically "cold waves" like.

Leh touched -5c yesterday, which is 3c above its normal. Kargil was -3c yesterday and Srinagar has been around 2c for the past week. Much above what could be seen end November.Gulmarg ski resort was at a "warm" 2.1c and Pahalgam 's night was -1c. Qazigund and Kokernag recorded minimum of 1.5c and 2.9c.

However, the coldest place in India yesterday was Darbuk (Ladakh) at -18c.

Delhi around 14c is 4c above, and Jaipur at 15c is 5c above. Simla saw 9c, still 3c above normal.And Udaipur was 18c, being above by +8c.

Across the border too, the nights are not cool enough to call it a good winter. Islamabad 7c, Lahore 10c, Quetta 2c, Karachi 17c, Peshawar 8c are all above normal.

This temperature anomaly map shows most of the sub-continent in the above normal regions.

And. its because of this, absenve of W.D.s that the systems from the south are having a field day !

Whats happens next? A real good strong W.D, is needed to bring the winter back, but, do not see one in the next 4/5 days at least.

Meanwhile, as anticipated by vagaries, the low in the Arabian weakened to 1008 mb as on Tuesday late morning. It shows some clouding across south gujarat and north Mah. coast, and as mentioned in the blog yesterday, I expect it to fizzle out in the sea.

More on this later today.