7th February 2024...Day temperatures 

North India 👇

Maharashtra 👇

India👇

Northern Hemisphere 👇

Extended Outlook For Summer and Partly for Monsoon for Gujarat and Maharashtra.

At its Meeting on 4th February,  (Actual and Virtual) Vagaries' discussed the possible weather expected in Gujarat and Maharashtra State Regions this summer 2024.

There is much hype going on that 2024 could be the hottest year on record...now let us analyze the probability;

Note: After a certain agency announced that 2023 was the hottest year, Vagaries displayed a chart of several other agencies, which showed much variation to the statement.

1.Moderate El Nino effect in February/March/April: : An early summer is expected from late February thru April. Above normal temperatures expected in March and April. 

In March itself, or even late February, Interior Konkan may see the mercury touching 40c.

This excessive heating may see temperatures rising in April in excess of.41/42c in Vidharbh and parts of Madhya Maharashtra.

Above normal rise in Interior Saurashtra and South Gujarat Region in Mid March thru April.

2. The unusual heating may bring local Thunder showers in Mid March to Madhya Maharashtra(Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kohlapur).

As a Line of Wind dis-Continuity forms in Central Maharashtra, more ( Pre Monsoon) Thundershowers can be expected in Mid April in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.

Thundershowers may pop up in pockets in Saurashtra around April.

3. El Nino effect decreases, to become weak El Nino from May/June/July;  Probably we may see the extreme above normal summer easing, becoming milder from May.

May could be around Normal/above normal, Summer temperatures. As studies have shown that the entire summer suceeding a strong El Niño has generally, to some extent, a little above normal temperatures in most of India.

4. Decaying of El Nino and strengthening La Nina:   Maharashtra and Gujarat (Barring Kutch)..... Now this shows a good indication of a normal -Good Monsoon. As the El Nino decays, the South West Monsoon get normal to above normal from July.

The overall Northern Hemisphere Summer will not be severe from June -August, thus reducing chances of a record heat year.

This Long Term Estimate is based on the studies by Vagaries' study and not binding or should not be solely taken for commercial purposes. 

There may be variations in the outlook in the forthcoming Months.

 

Pune minimum temperature in January

Must Read World Weather Page for " Alaska..Severe Cold"

Variation of minimum temperature in Pune Shivajinagar in January month from 2022-2024. Data: IMD

Delhi Weather summary for January 2024

 Delhi Safdarjung 

Average maximum temperature: 17.9c (2.2c below normal)

Average minimum temperature: 6.5c (1c below normal)

Highest maximum temperature: 28c (28 Jan)

Days with maximum temperature above 20c: 5 days

Lowest minimum temperature: 3.3c (15 Jan)

Rain: Trace

Number of cold days: 5

Number of cold waves: 5

Data: IMD

Outlook for 3rd/4th weekend 

Mumbai:"Warmish" days expected over the weekend , 3rd/4th.  for Mumbai with daytime temperatures rising to 32°C-34°C range.

Nights may remain around 18°C.

But,...Days can again drop to around 30°C from Monday 5th , and nights again becoming cooler around 16-17°C.

Pune also getting cooler from Monday to around 9/10°c.

Bharuch can expect cooler weather from Monday for 2/days. 

Another active WD to affect northern regions from 3rd to 5th February. Rain/TS with chance of hail in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, west UP and rain/snow in Himalayas with moderate to heavy snowfall in high elevations.

Meanwhile,Pahalgam recorded a low of minus 11.9°C.

MeT officials said that It was the 3rd lowest temperature for Pahalgam in the last ten years after minus 12.6°C and minus 12.7°C recorded on 2nd and 9th February in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

 The all-time lowest minimum temperature for Pahalgam during February was minus 17.2°C in February 1984.

Fresh Snowfall Grips Kashmir Valley And Northern India | India Today News

Alaska Snow Record:👇

Anchorage has received a record-breaking 104.9 inches of snow as of Jan. 30, making it the earliest on record the city has seen 100 inches or more of snow after eclipsing that mark on the 29th.

In comparison, Anchorage typically sees 48.8 inches of snow on average by this point in the season, so it's currently running 56.1 inches above average.

And there’s a lot of winter left to go, providing more opportunities for the city to pick up additional snow accumulations.

Must Read World Weather Page for ""Does Extreme Cold Weather Signal A Warming Earth?" 

First rainy day of the year for Delhi

Last 24 hrs rain (ending on 1 Feb 8:30am)  in Delhi 

Safdarjung: 26.5mm

Palam: 20.1mm

Lodhi road: 24.6mm

Ridge: 23.4mm

Ayanagar: 7.5mm

Also with 26.5mm rain at Delhi Safdarjung, it is the highest 24hrs rain in February in Delhi after 2013.