With a warm October over, and above normal temperatures in the Indian sub continent,the trend continues in the first few days of November.The night temperatures are 3-5°c above the normal in most parts of north and central India.Due to the prevailing easterlies and absence of northly winds,the above normal tendency continues.Scattered rain in Goa.South Maharashtra,Marathwada and North Karnatak have added to the humidity in recent days.Pune and Mahableshwar had 10mm of rain yesterday,while centres in Goa and Aurangabad had about 2-10mms.

But like an extended summer here,we have an extended winter exactly below in the Southern Indian Ocean.In Australia, snow reportedly fell in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. In the Australian Capital Territory.Canberra was also expecting a flurry of snow on Sunday.The minimum temperature recorded in Canberra on Saturday night was a chilly -1°C (30°F), and a frost is also forecast for the city on Sunday night.
Also,residents in Bicheno, on Tasmania’s east coast, got up early to see the snow falling on Saturday, after reportedly not seeing a flake since 1972. With a chilly southwesterly wind, temperatures dipped to 2°C (36°F) overnight, compared to an average of 8-10°C (46-50°F) at this time of year.

Weather should change to normal very soon in both the hemispheres.

The deep depression mentioned,progressed to the status of a cyclone(Ogni),and crossed the Andhra coast on Monday.But it has not progressed or moved much inland,due to the domineering upper westerly trough which did not allow it to move inland.In fact the sytem has already weakened.But the rain belt has moved away northwards.
Except for the IMD,no major international weather models has acknowledged the cyclone or registered it.This is because it has developed too near the coast,in fact "half over water and half over land".Only the cyclones with the required speed and intensity over international waters are likely to get the attention.

But the sytem has rained heavily over coastal Andhra,with Machlipatanam getting 34cms.in a day.

Scattered rain was also recorded in intereior Andhra and interior Maharashtra today.

After pouring heavy rain over the Tamil Nadu coast,these rains will possibly move a little north.A deep depression that has formed off the Andhra Coast is likely to cross the coast of Andhra by Monday,and as a result bring heavy rain to Andhra,and later to interior Maharashtra.Areas of South Madhya Maharahtra and Marathwada will get some showers from Tuesday,and Mumbai also may see some rain in the next 48 hrs.

This will result in more sultry weather for Mumbai in the next 48 hrs.As a result,the night temperatures which had just started to drop in the Pune,Nasik,Aurangabad and M.P.region,will rise again,at least for a few days.

Another system seems to be forming in the S.Arabian Sea.It has to be observed,and the movement and development speed to be observed.

Both the above systems are formed as the ITCZ moves southwards seasonally.

Temperature wise,no sharp falls or abnormal temperatures recorded in the sub continent except for the severe heat in Mumbai,mentioned last week.The first below zero temperature of the season in the mid hills or plains(outside the higher reaches of Kashmir and H.P.),was -1.7°c at Kalpa(H.P.)recorded on 24th.October.

For those who had decided to go to the hills for the Divali vacations,it was certainly a good choice.Divali day,Sunday 22nd.October was certainly a very hot day in Mumbai.It was second only to Hyderabad(Pakistan),in the entire sub continent region.Hyderabad(Pakistan)was 37°c,and Mumbai(Santacruz),Ahmedabad and Baroda were 36°c on Sunday.

The delay in the setting in of the westerly sea breeze is the cause of the heat in Mumbai.The winds were expected to change with the westward movement of the ongoing W.D.Otherwise,with the W.D.now moving away,temperatures have fallen by about 2-3°c in the North of Pakistan and India,thus being normal to 1°c below normal.

ORIONID METEOR SHOWER: This weekend, a mild but pretty flurry of meteors will shoot out of the constellation Orion. The source is Halley's Comet. Although the comet itself is far away, ancient clouds of dust from the comet are nearby, and Earth is about to run through them. The best time to look is Saturday morning, Oct. 21st. Dozens of meteors might streak across the sky during the hours before sunrise. Dark skies are recommended!

If interested in more details,check at spaceweather.

With the monsoon gone, the winds have immedietly changed direction and are now, blowing from the north east, almost throughout the central parts of India.
The city of Mumbai has suddenly started heating up, taking the locals by surprise. This is due to the total absence of the westerly sea breeze which has kept the city cool for the last 5 months. Easterlies are now blowing over the city and thus keeping the temperatures high. This is expected to reverse in another 2 days,and temperatures are expected to fall in North India,Gujarat and North Maharashtra.In the picture above,notice the sudden rise in the temperature from 11th October,the day the rains stopped in Mumbai.
The South West Monsoon has been formally been announced as widhrawn from the sub continent as on 17th October. Overall, it was -1% for the country as a whole and excess in the central parts. Parts of the extreme south and North East were in the deficit.
I agree with Jim's blog of yesterday, that there are many factors that have a bearing on the final performance of the South West Monsoon. Starting with the temperatures of March in India to the sea temperatures off the coast of Sudan, a variety of parameters have been proved to have an effect on the rains. The building up of the heat low, and its timing have an important bearing on the time of arrival of the monsoon. Another far away factor, in fact the initial, is the cooling of the Southern Indian Ocean between Africa and Australia, to create the"high" there and shoot off the trade winds towards the equator. I think maybe we should leave this discussion for the next season.

The W.D. I mentioned yesterday is quite active in the higher reaches and the Northern areas. The Dhauladhar ranges in Kangra district, Rohtang Pass, Saptrishi ranges and other peaks in tribal Lahaul and Spiti district and Saach Pass in Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh had a spell of intermittent snowfall, creating cold wave conditions in the region.Dharamsala and its adjoining areas received intermittent rains accompanied by strong winds while Dhauladhar ranges overlooking the Kangra valley, had snowfall since yesterday, the met department said.
The Rohtang Pass (13,050 ft) had moderate snowfall for second day on Saturday and 10 cm of fresh snow had accumulated on the pass till this evening.Shimla and its surrounding areas were lashed by icy winds, making people shiver during the evening hours.(Report from T.O.I.).

Reports from Pakistan also speak of a heavy and violent dust storm in Lahore,with 100kmph. winds.