Vagaries of the Weather ©

Monsoon Watch – 3

📅 3rd May 2026

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🌧️ OVERALL STATUS

🟡 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE / NEAR NORMAL

Monsoon parameters progressing, but Bay activity and pressure gradient still insufficient.

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📊 PARAMETER ANALYSIS

1. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS

Active in South Arabian Sea branch

⚠️ Bay branch weak

🔴 INDICATOR: -VE

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2. SEASONAL LOW (THAR CORE HEAT)

Core pressure ~1000 mb

➡️ Needs ~994 mb in June

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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3. ENSO STATUS

• ENSO Neutral currently
• Neutral till June (~80%)
• El Niño likely May–July onward (~61%)

📉 RONI: -0.7{ El Niño: Characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping  3-month seasons.}

🟩 INDICATOR: NEUTRAL → EL NIÑO BY AUGUST

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4. BAY OF BENGAL ACTIVITY

No Low / Depression yet
✔️ SST favorable
❌ No trigger

🔴 INDICATOR: -VE

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5. ITCZ / LWD

Near Equator
LWD: Chattisgarh-Telangana-T.N.

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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6. JET STREAMS (200 hPa)

Weak SE winds south of 8°N

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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📋 PARAMETER SUMMARY 

PARAMETER	STATUS
Cross Equatorial Winds	🔴 -VE
Seasonal Low	🟩 NORMAL
ENSO	🟩 NEUTRAL
Bay Activity	🔴 -VE
ITCZ / LWD	🟩 NORMAL
Jet Streams	🟩 NORMAL
OVERALL	🟡 SLIGHT -VE / NORMAL

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🗓️ TENTATIVE MONSOON ONSET 

South Andamans → 🔴 19 MAY
Andaman Islands → 🔴 22 MAY
Maldives → 🔴 29–30 MAY
Sri Lanka → 🔴 30 MAY – 1 JUNE
Kerala / NE India → 🔴 3–5 JUNE
Coastal Karnataka → 🔴 7 JUNE
Goa → 🔴 8–9 JUNE
Mumbai & West Bengal → 🔴 12–14 JUNE

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🌦️ VAGARIES INSIGHT 

• Arabian branch strengthening
• Bay remains critical missing trigger
• Seasonal Low yet to deepen
• ENSO turning factor later

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🔴 NOTE

🔴 Observation-based forecast. Not for commercial use.
🔴 Conditions may change rapidly and are monitored continuously.

 

 1st May All India Weather Update:

World Ranking in Hottest Places 

World Ranking in Lowest Night Temperatures 

Meanwhile, Nights getting better marginally in North and Central India 

April Showers Break Records: Delhi Sees Wettest April in Over a Decade

Delhi Safdarjung recorded the wettest April at least since 2010

Yearwise April rainfall as follows (2010-2026)

 30th April :

 Hottest April Nights on record in Panjim:

29.2c :29/4/1995

29.0c: 26/4/1973

28.6c: 30/4/2026

28.5c: 24/4/2025

28.4c: 27/4/2026

28.3c: 28/4/2026

28.2c: 30/4/2015

28.1c: 28/4/2014

Warmest night any month: 29.8c: 24/5/2023

Courtesy Vag: Atul Naik (Margao)

29th Night Post :

A W.D. has saved and prevented a "Major" heat spell.. In North India.

Check the 29th Day Temperatures below.. 👇

And the anomalies ( Variation from the normal👇

[This was expected.. ( writer only mentioned what he had read earlier)] 👇

29th April Reality vs Rumour – Ground Truth

🌡️ Actual Day Temperatures (29th April)

Core heat belt (Central India / Vidarbha): 42°–45°C

North India plains: 34°–38°C

Northwest (Punjab/Haryana): ~36°C

Peninsular India: 34°–38°C

➡️ Conclusion:

Yes, hot — but typical late-April continental heat, not extreme or unprecedented.

📊 Temperature Anomaly (Departure from Normal)

Max Temperature Anomaly

North India: -2° to -8°C (below normal)

Central India: 0° to +2°C (near normal to slightly above)

East India: -3° to -6°C (below normal)

Min Temperature Anomaly

North India: -2°C (cooler nights)

Central India: +1° to +3°C (slightly warm nights)

➡️ Key Insight:

👉 The “hotbed regions are NOT above normal”

👉 In fact, North India is significantly cooler than normal

⚠️ The Rumour vs Reality

What was circulated

Entire India shown in deep red

Impression: Extreme / unbearable / crisis heat everywhere

Emotional messaging: “Pain in the air”, “no relief”, etc.

What data shows

Mixed pattern:

Cooling in North India

Normal heat in central belt

No widespread extreme anomaly

➡️ Scientific Reality:

This is not a pan-India heatwave scenario

This is seasonal variability with regional contrasts

🧠 Vagaries Insight

“Colour is not climate truth.”

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BTW... Mumbai at 22.30 on 29th (just for information) 

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29th April Morning Post

Oh No...The so called "Heat wave" is letting some forecasters go wrong

After our caution in Vagaries..overnight temperatures have stared dripping and into the "below Normal" zone especially in the "hotbed" Regions of North India ! ! 

See the North India cooling Nights below 👇

28th Post

 Dispelling "fake news" of impending 1) fatal heat waves to hit India, 

2) A"super El Nino"..

 A once in 150 years El Niñocoming this summer, 

3) Record temperature touching 55°c 

4) India is going to have an unlivable summer 

5) "This is only April, the hottest months are not yet here"... And more of these alarming and panic news circulating. 

>Like we said in the blog on 27th article, there is nothing so vastly unusual... 

> Some facts and actual early high temperatures in the past... Showing earliest 40°c in the past... And much earlier than this year.. (Ref : Vagaries Extreme Blog.) 

1953 . 28 -Feb Akola 40.0°c , Ahmedabad h28 Feb 40.6 °c, Baroda 28th Feb 40.6°

1963 -  23-Feb Bhubaneshwar 42.7c    

1973     28-Feb Ahmadabad, Baroda, Bharuch, Rajkot, Surat.Baroda 41.7c, Bharuch 42.8c

1974.     27th Feb Jalgaon 40°

1976      20- Feb Dohad 42.0c

1981      3-Mar Mumbai Scruz 40.0

• February: In exceptionally warm years, parts
•  of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana can hit 40°C by 
•  last week of February. For instance, in 2023,
•  several locations in Maharashtra and Gujarat recorded temperatures
•  close to or at 40°C as early as February 12-16.
• 
  
• Pune recorded it's earliest 40°on 20th March 2006.
• 
  
• New Delhi Palam on 23rd March 2004.
• In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the
• 
  
• same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April
• 2010, Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c,
• Simla to 28.2c
•  on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 
• On 19th April 2017, first ever 50 c
• temperature in April in
•  Asia has been recorded at Larkana (Sindh).
• 
  
• And so on and on... So what's different or unusual in heating this year in 2026 ??
• 
  
• > Super El Niño scare: Current State: ENSO Neutral

• Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

  Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

  Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

• So let us actually wait and watch. 

• 
  

• Conclusion : 1) Hyper blown up

•  contravertial situations 

• 2) Things and

•  Temperatures not going to extreme

•  unbelievably high 

• 3) We need to be alert

•  and cautious, not generating panic.