MONSOON REPORT 2025

 

31st July:

The South Asian Monsoon circulation to weaken leading to break in monsoon rains over large parts of Central and Peninsula India and South Asia in general during the first half of August 2025:

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About Monsoon Breaks:

"The longest consecutive break spell was 18July-3Aug in 1972, a deficient year. In July 2002, 24 days were break days."

As per the latest available forecasts from various global NWP modeling centers, the large scale South Asian monsoon circulation is forecast to weaken in the days to come that could favour setting up of break monsoon conditions over large parts of Central and Peninsular India during the first fortnight of August .

 During the past few days, monsoon rainfall was above normal over the central Indian core monsoon zone probably in association with a westward propagating wave that emanated out from the Western Pacific, a region that has been an active tropical convective center for the past several weeks due to favorable low frequency and other sub-seasonal near equatorial waves.

Very early forecasts for longer lead times i.e., second half of August suggest a possible revival of Monsoon rains with the convectively enhanced phase of MJO/BSISO visiting the Indian Ocean region following the upcoming break phase.

Report by Vag. Gokul 👆

Mumbai/Pune: Much decrease in rainfall from 1stAugust to 9th August ( Vagaries expects around 70 mms cumulative from 1st - 9th August for Mumbai. And 30- 35 mms for Pune.) 

Very little rainfall. Warmer and sunnier days.cooler nights at 20°c in Pune.

Interior Maharashtra will see similar decrease in rain intensity.

Tsunami waves from the 8.7 magnitude earthquake have begun slamming Russia

Buildings are already being swept away

Tsunami waves are also heading to Hawaii, expected to arrives within hours

https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1950360873215688784/video/1

India-NASA NISAR Launch on July 30th 

This will be India’s first satellite with dual-frequency Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), capable of scanning the planet in all weather, day and night.

NISAR will orbit 743 km above Earth and use advanced radar systems from both agencies to capture incredibly detailed data every 12 days — even detecting changes as small as 1 cm!

NISAR will help track and predict natural disasters like earthquakes, landslides, floods, and storms — potentially saving lives and resources.

It will also monitor soil moisture, forest changes, ice movement, and coastline shifts. Built with key parts from ISRO centres across India and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab in the US, this ₹1 lakh crore collaboration is a major leap for global science — and for India’s role in it.

Extract from weatherandradar.in

NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), the first joint satellite of ISRO and NASA will be launched by ISRO’s GSLV-F16 on July 30, 2025 at 1740 hrs IST from Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC SHAR). Sriharikota. - © ISRO

 Weather outlook from 26th to 31st July - Active phase of Monsoon to continue till month end:

Mumbai: Mumbai rains have increased over the last 3 days, as mentioned in our earlier post. Frequent passing showers of moderate to heavy intensity with few breaks in between are expected till about 29th July. Rains may decrease thereafter. Occasional gusty winds are possible. Cumulative rainfall from 26th till month end can be around 150-200 mm. 

Rain intensity likely to be heavier in interior Konkan region.

Pune: Light to moderate showers. Cool winds. Cumulative rainfall from 26th till 31st July to be around 25-40 mm, with most of it expected till 28th/29th July

Hill stations of Lonavala, Mahabaleshwar, Igatpuri will continue to receive heavy to very heavy rains for another 3-4 days till 28th/29th July

New low BB-7 has formed over the Bay of Bengal - the remnants of tropical storm Wipha from the west Pacific Ocean merging with the developing UAC over Bay. 

BB-7 is now a depression and tracking west across West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Under its influence and associated strong Somali Jet from the Arabian Sea, heavy rains expected across central India:

Vidarbha region: Heavy rainfall is expected on 26th July and moderate rain on 27th July.

Marathwada: Moderate rains on 26th July and light rains on 27th July.

 

The central and western parts of Madhya Pradesh, eastern parts of Gujarat can receive heavy rains from 26th till 28th July. Southern and eastern  Rajasthan can get moderate rains till 28th/29th July

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Maharashtra Ghats, mainly Pune/Satara districts lashed by very heavy rains. Some 24 hour readings till 7:45 am on 26th July, below (in mm):

Jor :310

Patharpunj 259

Mahabaleshwar 258

Davdi 221

Navaja 194

Bhimashankar 174

Khandala 171

Dajipur 154

Koynanagar 143

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20 years ago this day...probably once in a lifetime event of #Mumbai mega floods!! 

Such massive rainfall in 24-hour period in Mumbai MMR region concentrated over the suburbs!

26th July 2005...from Vagaries' archives.

A day no Mumbaikar can forget.

Ghats on 25th ..Ghats near Pune

 25th July 

Some 24 hour rainfall for Maharashtra Ghats ending 8 am today:

Davdi 123 mm

Kumbheri 123 mm

Khandala 156 mm (till 7:45)

Jor 175 mm

Pratapgad 158 mm

Mahabaleshwar 140 mm (till 8:30)

Navaja 151 mm

Koynanagar 83 mm

Dajipur 90 mm

Kumbhi Dam 90

 22nd Night:

The Trough off the West Coast is expected to remain active , supported by An Upper Air Circulation off the East Coast Off A.P.

All along West Coast, good Rains expected:

23rd/ 24th:

Mumbai: Cloudy day with Frequent Heavy showers, interspersed with some bright periods.

25th/26th: Rains intensity and frequency to increase. 

Pune: 23rd - 25th: Cloudy with moderate showers.

Ghats expected to get heavy rains.

Pune 12 UTC Rainfall(mm) dt. 22.07.2025

KURVANDE 40.0

BHOR 21.5, KOREGAON PARK 16.5

CHINCHWAD 2.5, TALEGAON 1.5

RAJGURUNAGAR 0.5, NIMGIRI 0.5

PASHAN 0.2, SHIVAJINAGAR 0.1

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Panji: Moderate to heavy rains.

 22nd July

The sudden burst of rains  (Not predicated by Vagaries) was due to an abnormal formation of an Upper Air Vortex. 

This can form in a trough, in this case the West coast trough. 

But this does not weaken the trough ,as the west coast got its normal rainfall. In fact the trough will now gain strength.

Vortex enhanced the Rainfall in Mumbai, particularly in North Mumbai as the vortex was Localised to a restricted area.

( Picture below is a reprehensive picture of the Massive 2005 rainfall which was on a scale 9x bigger)

Rainfall yesterday at Scruz was 115 mms and today 107 mms..

Colaba saw 8 mms and 40 mms respectively.

Today Alibag got 90 mms, Panji 73 mms, Harnai 60 mms and Ratnagiri 39 mms.

 21st July:

Mumbai rainfall in last 12hrs (6.45am to 6.45pm on 21-7-25)

Santacruz 130mm

Vile Parle 98mm

Vikhroli 69.5mm

Bandra 58mm

Ram Mandir 54mm

Thane 43.2mm

Borivali PWS 22.6mm

Colaba 8.5mm

Monsoon recovers 

 Intense 3 hour rain Spell in North /Central Mumbai on Monday M

Rainfall upto 8.30 am..115 mms Santacruz....8.30 -11.30 : 72 mms

11 mms Colaba

20th July:

On quires about the "Dry July'' (driest ever) in Mumbai, let us get some figures clear...

Till 20th July:👇

Colaba:     143 mms.....Normal for July Month  = 769 mms:  

Driest July ever = 104 mms (2002)

Santacruz: 285 mms... Normal for July Month = 920 mms:   

Driest July ever = 78 mms (1979)

Pune :         57 mms...  Normal for July Month = 190 mms   

Driest July ever = 31 mms (1918)

So, the Climate change and all the talks are clear here now !

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Mumbai: Few showers next 2 days, (around 10-15 mms average/day)with moderate increase in rainfall frequency from Wednesday 23rd for a couple of days. Maybe around 25-35 mms/day.

Pune: Few light showers in some areas. Not much change seen during the week.

Goa: Moderately heavy rains, 30-45 mms/day during the week.

Sambhajinagar: Next week light rains or showers around 5-10 mms/day.

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BB-6

has almost fizzled out to a Low Pressure, but not before it poured 113 mms of rains (24hrs) in Porbundar.

 19th July 

Monsoon depression BB-6 over Rajasthan region now, bringing good rains across Rajasthan & Kutch region of Gujarat.

Wind convergence seen over central and north Kerala region - can give heavy rains over next 1-2 days.

Monsoon westerlies over AS & BoB seen strengthening next week

Next 3-4 days:

Himalayan regions of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Nepal likely to get heavy rains - Avoid travel!

Lower ranges/foothills and adjoining plains across Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh can also receive heavy rains/thundershowers.

By Vag.Shreyas Dhavale

18th July 

Rainfall in cms

 16th July 

The Monsoon Progress till Date:

MUMBAI

Colaba Rainfall: 733 mms : -220 mms 

Santacruz Rainfall: 796 mms: -198 mms

Chennai: 201 mms : + 76 mms

Chennai A.P: 55 mms : - 93 mms

Bengaluru : 103 mms: -33 mms

Bengaluru A.P.: 96 mms:-23 mms 

Ahmedabad: 349 mms: +104 ,mms

Rainfall 0f 15th

Heavy rains expected in East Rajasthan and Jharkhand.

Mumbai

After getting the 2 day Monday/Tuesday rainfall, city will see a decrease in rainfall next 5 days from Wednesday 16th.

Warm sunny days now with few passing showers next 5 days ..with hardly 5/10 mms per day.

 

 The Northern Magnetic Pole Shift

On Weather Knowledge blog-59

Posted 13th July

Mumbai Special 

Mumbai, on Monday 14th, will see increased rain frequency and intensity.  After almost no rain last few days, city will see some occasional showers on Monday. 

Due to a weak circulation off the coast, Mumbai will get some rain only for 36 hrs. Expectations are around 25- 35 mms.

Pune will also see the effect of the development on Monday with some increasing rain frequency. Expectations are 10-15 mms.

 Weather Knowledge Blog Updated with No.58---Cross Winds in Mesosphere

12th July 

A Meteorological Note on the Synoptic Situation by Vag. Gokul.

Moist Equatorial Waves at play over the Equatorial Indian Ocean:

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As the equatorial region is convectively active, peninsular India could be temporarily under a relatively drier spell.

Recent satellite based images/analyses and NWP model based real time analyses suggests that transient moist equatorial waves are at play in the equatorial Indian Ocean. An eastward propagating Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave(CCKW) is seen over the central equatorial Indian Ocean near Maldives that is associated with enhanced atmospheric deep convective clouds. The wave is embedded in a deep Baroclinic large scale environment. The wave is also seen associated with deeper moist column, intense upward motion, high theta-e at mid tropospheric levels, enhanced upper level divergence etc. Also in the vicinity is a mid tropospheric circulation, which could be a high frequency Rossby wave response to the heating. Latest forecasts suggest that this CCKW could interfere with the large enhanced convective envelope over the Maritime Continent. 

 

Sea Ice Data Cut-off: Climate Alarmists Panic, But Is It Really a Crisis?

Interesting article on Author's Page of this blog

10th July Post

Medium term Outlook (Not frequent in Vagaries)

The South Asian Monsoon circulation to weaken gradually towards the end of July and beginning of August 2025

The monsoon rainfall over major parts of India and South Asia in general have been above normal since the middle of June and gradually the large scale Monsoon Trough got established towards the end of June. 

 In the coming weeks, as per the latest available extended range NWP model forecasts, the monsoon rains will be moderately active until the end of July with large regional variability in rainfall pattern over India.

Note Excerpts from Vag. Gokul.

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Mumbai:

Friday 11th/Saturday 12th/Sunday13th: Some passing showers in parts of city intercepted with some sunshine. 7- 10 mms per day.

Monday 14th & Tuesday 15th : Marginal increase in rainfall frequency = 20-30 mms per day.

16th onwards decrease in rains.

Pune: Weekend >Partly Cloudy and no meaningful rains..hardly upto 7 mms per day in parts of city.

Almost a semi dry spell till 16th at least.

Goa: Moderate rains on Friday/Saturday/Sunday ..but substantial increase on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th with 150 cumulative in these 2 days.

Sambhajinagar : Very negligible Rainfall till 16th at least.

Bharuch: Very little rain this weekend..Some increased rainfall on Monday for a day.

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Medikeri , Bengaluru and Hassan in South Interior Karnataka are facing a very dry and acute Monsoon, as seen from the table below.