31st July:

The South Asian Monsoon circulation to weaken leading to break in monsoon rains over large parts of Central and Peninsula India and South Asia in general during the first half of August 2025:

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About Monsoon Breaks:

"The longest consecutive break spell was 18July-3Aug in 1972, a deficient year. In July 2002, 24 days were break days."

As per the latest available forecasts from various global NWP modeling centers, the large scale South Asian monsoon circulation is forecast to weaken in the days to come that could favour setting up of break monsoon conditions over large parts of Central and Peninsular India during the first fortnight of August .

 During the past few days, monsoon rainfall was above normal over the central Indian core monsoon zone probably in association with a westward propagating wave that emanated out from the Western Pacific, a region that has been an active tropical convective center for the past several weeks due to favorable low frequency and other sub-seasonal near equatorial waves.

Very early forecasts for longer lead times i.e., second half of August suggest a possible revival of Monsoon rains with the convectively enhanced phase of MJO/BSISO visiting the Indian Ocean region following the upcoming break phase.

Report by Vag. Gokul 👆

Mumbai/Pune: Much decrease in rainfall from 1stAugust to 9th August ( Vagaries expects around 70 mms cumulative from 1st - 9th August for Mumbai. And 30- 35 mms for Pune.) 

Very little rainfall. Warmer and sunnier days.cooler nights at 20°c in Pune.

Interior Maharashtra will see similar decrease in rain intensity.