Sunday, April 08, 2018

Monsoon Watch-1, Vagaries' annual Monsoon Chase and follow up, will be published on 10th April ( 11 pm IST)....on Due date !


NilaY Wankawala said...

Much awaited series SWM 2018 to begin soon....premier only on vagaries of weather

NilaY Wankawala said...


Issued 10 April 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation influence on the climate remains weak

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most models predict a neutral ENSO pattern will persist through the southern autumn and winter.

Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year. Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range. In the atmosphere, cloud and pressure patterns remain weakly La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.

Climate models indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, two of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences a wetter than average winter-spring.

Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence, current model outlooks of these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 24 April 2018

Ron said...

Eagerly awaited

Rajesh Kumar said...

Most awaited forecast

Salim Ramani , Jabalpur said...

Your knowledge to the subject is excellent ,your detailed yet simple explanation about the weather is very commendable ,I wish this time also your observations will be awesome .

Thanks & Regards

Salim Ramani

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