Monsoon Watch-1, Vagaries' annual Monsoon Chase and follow up, will be published on 10th April ( 11 pm IST)....on Due date !
vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Sunday, April 08, 2018
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30th March Weather 👇 Weather outlook till Friday 31st March - As we calculated in mid March after the Heat spell, remaining days of March ...
The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat...
Much awaited series SWM 2018 to begin soon....premier only on vagaries of weather
CREDIT : AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY
Issued 10 April 2018
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation influence on the climate remains weak
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most models predict a neutral ENSO pattern will persist through the southern autumn and winter.
Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year. Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range. In the atmosphere, cloud and pressure patterns remain weakly La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.
Climate models indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, two of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences a wetter than average winter-spring.
Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence, current model outlooks of these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution.
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Next update expected on 24 April 2018
Most awaited forecast
Your knowledge to the subject is excellent ,your detailed yet simple explanation about the weather is very commendable ,I wish this time also your observations will be awesome .
Thanks & Regards
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