Friday, April 24, 2015

A Lot of Debating is going on due to the variations in the IMD forecast of 93% (+- 5%) of the SWM and around 102% forecasted by a Private Weather Agency. Now, that is a substantial variation in estimates.
The IMD viewpoint is taking into consideration the impending El Nino, which may lower the intensity of the Monsoon. They have not considered the IOD (rightly i feel).
But, an above average Monsoon this year given by the Private Agency contradicts the IMD estimate even in spatial distributions. 

Vagaries will, as usual, give the arrival dates by end of April in MW-3. 
Vagaries, while considering the quantum rainfall for the Monsoon, considers parameters pertaining to April readings also. Some parameters are taken from the April observations. So, it would be incorrect to give a forecast for the Monsoon quantum of rains before April. We even consider and decipher the end April and early May rainfall patterns for Southern India/Kerala.

According to the usual practice, Vagaries will announce the rainfall quantum ( for the entire sub continent) in MW-4 and MW-5 around 10th/12th May.



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Stunning Pictures of 2 Recent Volcanin Eruptions and Volcanic Lightening.See Space News Page....

Lightening Occurs in Volcanic Plumes and Gas.. But why? Vagarians, Please give your Answers to this query >>>>

2 comments:

salil said...

According to Wikipedia its also called as Dirty Thunderstorm & explanation for lightning is given as follows :

A study in the journal Science indicated that electrical charges are generated when rock fragments, ash, and ice particles in a volcanic plume collide and produce static charges, just as ice particles collide in regular thunderstorms.

As the plume started going downwind, it seemed to have a life of its own and produced some 300 more or less normal [lightning bolts] ... The implication is that it has produced more charge than it started with. Otherwise [the plume] couldn't continue to make lightning.

—Martin Uman, co-director of the University of Florida Lightning Research program

Volcanic eruptions also release large amounts of water, which may help fuel these thunderstorms.

Abhijit said...

Yesterday after clear sunny for whole day. Heavy Rain lashed Bangalore around midnight. 36mm rainfall recorded ending 8.30am today. Actually all 36mm has recorded in 1hr(i.e between 11pm to 12am last night)