Carrying on from last blog's Monsoon Watch-13, call it a "false start" or a weakening, the monsoon is now at its weakest ebb today (29th.). But I would not worry much*, as it was anticipated to happen, with the W.D. "low aloft" taking hold of the northern regions of India. Surely this is only for a couple of days, and again I feel the monsoon current will start creeping up north along the west coast after the 30th. of May.
Initially, the coastal regions of Karnataka will get the rains, and the first pre monsoon showers wetting the Konkan region after the 1st. of June. Pre monsoon showers can be expected in Mumbai from Tuesday night, continuing almost daily, with increasing intensity, till the actual monsoon. Monsoon can set in Mumbai by the 7th./8th. June.
*I maintain, the parameters are conducive for the advance, and except for the lone W.D., there is nothing negative to cause concern of advancing flow of the monsoon current.
But, till the 10th. of June, I feel the interiors of the states of Maharashtra and Karnatak will be devoid of any real meaningfull rains. The monsoon may penetrate inland after the second week of June, as there is no real system predicted in the Arabian Sea till then. Also, a low is anticipated in the bay by the first week of June , and its effect inland, by the second week only.
Resultantly, a heat wave, in patches, with temperatures in the 45-47c range, can be expected in Rajasthan, Delhi, M.P., Chattisgarh and Vidharbh in the first 10 days of June. Minimum night temperatures can be as high as 32-34c .
Across the border, it has touched 50.4c in Sibbi and 50c in Turbat in the last 2 days.