Monday, April 06, 2009

Monsoon Watch-2

Central regions of India, as seen in the map, continues to heat up, with above normal day temperatures continuing to hold sway. Highs of 42c are seen in the Nagpur/Akola areas, and the outer region of 38c to 40 c is getting enlerged to cover a larger area. Across the international border, days have started touching the 42c mark, and this could herald the formation of the seasonal low in the area (mentioned in the previous blog), by the middle of this month. Thus, a requisite pre monsoon requirment could well start on schedule. As on today, though, the pressure in the region is hovering around 1008 mb. with a cordened area of 1006mb.

Streamline map shows the line of wind dis-continuity gaining prominence. Again, a good indication of a formation of a trough, required for the larger monsoon trough to get embedded into.

The sst around the Indian peninsula is also above normal. Hence, the "pre requirments" for the set up of the month of April is on stream and on schedule.

Now, shifting down south into the southern hemisphere, a "high" is required in the South Indian Ocean, which will act as a "power house" of the Indian Monsoon. From this "high'', south-east trade winds will get generated, and cross the equator to become the south-west, and rush towards the west coast of India.

For the ''high" to form, the south Indian Ocean has to now cool down, after a long summer season. The sst map show the sea temperatures in the region as just about "below normal''. And, as a result, the formation of cyclones in the southern hemisphere has now ceased. If the trend continues, a preliminary "high" can form in the next 10 days.

Cooling of the seas down, in the next 15 days, also will give the required northward momentum to the ICTZ.

All parameters on schedule as of now, I see no reason for a delayed south-west monsoon.

Meanwhile, I would like to elaborate and mention the abnormal heat Banglore is facing. After a few days of 35c, which is also hot for the place, the city today(Monday) touched 37c! Thats 4c above the normal. The temperature map above shows the" 37c line" coming right down towards Banglore. Now, thats just a degree away from the all time April high of 38.3c, way back in 1931.The highest ever to be recorded in Banglore was the 38.9c , also in 1931, on May22nd.

Please do not mention "global warming" in Banglore. In 1931 too, it was 38.9c !

A diagram illustration of the last 30 days, of this year, in Banglore, shows how the city has heated up in the period . The "red" areas (hot! above normal), are popping up throughout, but is constant after the 26th. of March.

I do not see any big relief for the city till Friday, 10th. Temperatures may drop after that, and , as a trough develops in the southern peninsula, showers could be expected in Banglore only on Sunday/Monday.

No comments:

Posted Thursday Afternoon 22nd August: The Monsoon Situation as on 21st August: All India +2%.  State wise and District wise; ...