Thursday, April 02, 2009

Monsoon Watch:-1
The hottest spots in Asia today were Surat and Akola at 43c, Nagpur and Baroda at 42c and Aurangabad at 40c ( several stations recorded 40c in India though).

Now, all this, and the heat wave in Mumbai yesterday, when the mercury touched an unbelieveable 41.6c at Santa Cruz, (+8c), is due to the W.D. This is passing in the form of a low "aloft". Creating strong, warm northerlies to flow southwards, this system , and the other one due by the 4th. , may maintain the above normal heat wave in central India for another couple of days. The image of todays maximum temperature shows the patch of land heating up abnormally in the central regions.

Now, this should be a plus point in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the pre monsoon weather requirments, the seasonal low , required start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. The seasonal low, over the Arabia thru India stretch ,normally starts forming in the Barmer and adjoining regions in the second week of April. As yet, the MSL is around 1010mb in the region. (The ultimate low, in June when ready, should be 994mb.)

The current heatwave can facilitate a quicker formation the low. In fact, a line of dis-continuity in southern Maharashtra now existing should make it happen early.

The other factor for the monsoon, the sea temperatures, are as yet favourable for this time of the year. The 2 images shown of 2008 and 2009, the current year show waters on both sides of the Indian peninsula above normally heated, as compared to last year, when the Arabian Sea was still to heat up.

Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirment is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necassary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.

In fact, as a result of the sea temperatures anomolly mentioned above, a few international forecast models show the brewing up of a low from the bay in the 2nd. week of April.

All this is favourable as yet for a timely monsoon.

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