Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Monsoon Watch-18
The weather in the northern regions of the sub continent continues to play spoilsport. The series of W.D's since the last 15 days, has effectively cooled down the region(as discussed in MW17), and to some extent, the" low" temperatures continue till today. The temperature deviation map of 26th. is not "healthy" for the advance of the monsoon. A large portion of the north is still below normal, with some regions in the Punjab region far too low for comfort. The latest IMD sea level pressure chart too is devoid of a proper monsoon low (of around 994mb), but shows a small region of 1000mb. Even on the 27th. the highest temperature in Pakistan was 47c at Nawabshah and 44c at Jaisalmer and Nagpur in India.
As per the IMD, the monsoon should advance into Kerala by the 30th., (see MW8, 25th. April).

My estimate is monsoon should advance by that date, and progress into Karnataka in a day or two, but as a weak current. Sufficient pressure gradient may take upto a week to develop and pull the monsoon further north. Hence, situation continues to project the further advance of the monsoon beyond Karnataka into Maharashtra after the 6th./7th. June.
Is there a faint indication of a ridge forming in the Arabian Sea ? Shall have to wait for a day and see, but I hope it does not.





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