Monday, May 19, 2008

Monsoon Watch-15
Sub-continent Region: The entire northern region has now started heating up, to almost heat wave conditions.(That is temperatures of 6c above normal).

The graph shows the temperatures of Delhi and Nagpur during the last 30 days. The "red" portion is above normal only by about 3c. Subsequently, the temperatures dropped after the first week of May. The average temperature for both cities during the period under mention is only 0.4c higher than normal.
Technically, it would be the first "heat wave" of the season, presuming the temperatures now rise in the coming days. Today, 18th. Sibbi, Pakistan recorded the first 50c of this year. Anyway, it should not be a problem for a rise in temperatures now, with no major W.D. in the offing. This will spell well for the heat low over the Pakistan/India region, now at 998mb.
Bay Region: As mentioned in the MW 14, the bay sst still remains below normal. Hence no international forecast model is predicting a further progress of the monsoon rains northwards from the current limit in the next 5/6 days.

Arabian Sea: The sst there too is still maintaining itself at the normal level. Alongwith, the cross equatorial flow in the Arabian Sea is keeping pace as required for this time, and is now established fairly well. COLA and FNMOC predict a burst of rains coming towards the Kerala coast from the 20th. -24th. Subsequently the forecast indicates a fair amount of rain over Kerala/Coastal Karnatak from th 24th.

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Posted Wednesday evening : BB 8 tracks over M. P. Bringing good rainfall.  East MP 5-16 vms, West M. P up to 12 cms and a good 4-16 cms ...