23rd Night Post:.. Arabian and Bay Systems outlook below.
Mumbai region may see a slight drop of 1-2°C to (34/36°) in the day and to (22/23°) at night temperatures 27th onwards from the current values.
As the Arabian Sea low dissipates and the Bay low intensifies by Sunday, weather over Maharashtra will remain dry.
First Cyclone Watch for 2026 over the North Indian Ocean!
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been active since last few days over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2-3). Two lows had formed earlier, one in the Arabian Sea (moved towards Somalia), one in the Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast and a weak tropical cyclone (named Agueda) in the southern Indian Ocean.
The earlier two lows have now dissipated, but two new low pressure areas have formed, one over the southeastern Arabian Sea off Keralam coast and the other over central Bay of Bengal.
Although as of present, the clouds appear little more dense over the Arabian Sea and the sea surface temperatures are favourable for intensification, higher vertical wind shear is likely preventing this low from developing further. This low could eventually move east and dissipate while crossing Keralam coast by 25th October, bringing moderate-heavy rains for southern peninsula, mainly Keralam, and Western Ghats.
On the other hand, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favourable for the further development and intensification of the Bay of Bengal low pressure area into a depression, deep depression and thereafter into a tropical cyclone over next 48 hours.
This will be the first cyclone over north Indian Ocean for 2026 and as per the nomenclature, it will be called "Arnab".
Guidance from various weather models suggest the Bay low to intensify into a strong cyclone and move towards central-north coastal Andhra Pradesh by 27th/28th October. The east coast from central AP upto south Odisha could experience impacts from this developing system, with gusty winds and heavy rains. Storm surge is possible for north coastal AP and south Odisha coasts.
There could be some change in the expected track of this cyclone, will be updated in subsequent posts.
