Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Friday, October 29, 2021

Posted 29th Night:

Low Pressure system heralding the NEM along the T.N. coast and A.P. coast will move inland. NEM expected to remain active in T.N, from 30th for next 4 days.

Strong Easterly wind flow at the upper level ( 1500 metres above sea Level) will bring in much moisture into interior Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from the 1st of November.

Increasing cloudiness and possibility of light/moderate rain/Thundershowers in parts of South Madhya Maharashtra  & Southern Marathwada region from 31st October to 3rd November. 

No rain expected in Aurangabad.

South Konkan, Goa and Western Ghats will be getting getting some rain 1st -3rd November.

South Konkan Rice fields , undergoing removal now, need to be protected.

Mumbai: after some "lesser humidity " experience, Mumbai  may witness increasing humidity from Sunday. some clouds shading the sky on weekend and Monday. Temperature range, warm,  between 33c - 24c. Real feel  35c.

Pune: Partly cloudy from Sunday ...and rise in night temperatures from Sunday. Light to moderate rain expected (Thunder) from 1st -3rd November. 

Goa: Expect light to moderate rains from 31st October - 3rd November.

31 ऑक्टोबर ते 3 नोव्हेंबर या कालावधीत दक्षिण मध्य महाराष्ट्र आणि दक्षिण मराठवाडा विभागाच्या काही भागात ढगाळ वातावरण आणि हलका/मध्यम पाऊस/ मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता.

औरंगाबादमध्ये पावसाचा अंदाज नाही.

दक्षिण कोकण, गोवा आणि पश्चिम घाटात १ ते ३ नोव्हेंबरपर्यंत थोडा पाऊस पडेल.

दक्षिण कोकण भातशेती, आता काढली जात आहेत, संरक्षित करणे आवश्यक आहे.

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Courtesy Shri Hosalikar

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Monday, October 25, 2021

25th October... SWM Withdraws.. & NEM sets in.

(Estimated earlier  in Vagaries on 14th) 

See (below) complete withdrawal dates from country in last 46 years. Mark the date trend in last 10 years. (IMD) 




Significant Rainfall amount recorded (from 0830 hours IST of yesterday to 0830 hours IST of 25th)(in cm): 

Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal: Madurai-11, 

Pudukkottai-10, Tiruppur, Toothukudi-8 each, Kodaikanal-4 each;

Interior Karnataka: Kodagu-8, Shivamoga, Mysuru, Dharwad, Mandya-7, Hassan-3; 

Kerala: Palakkad-6


Low Pressure now likely to develop in South Bay more and move towards T. N. Coast by 27th.

Effective rainfall will move inland into Karnataka and Southern Madhya Mah. ( Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara) around  1st week November.  

Chennai:

Heavy  rainfall is expected between 29th and 30th October. Will extend into early November. 

Localised flooding, thunderstorm and gale winds is likely, with the monsoon making a good onset. 


Sunday, October 24, 2021

 Posted sunday 24th October

No rain expected in Marathwada till month end. 

Except for little rain in South Konkan on 24th, 

No rain elsewhere in Maharashtra State till October end. 

Cooler night temperatures. 

रविवार 24 ऑक्टोबर रोजी पोस्ट केले

मराठवाड्यात महिनाअखेरीपर्यंत पावसाची अपेक्षा नाही.

24 रोजी दक्षिण कोकणात थोडा पाऊस वगळता,

ऑक्टोबर अखेरपर्यंत महाराष्ट्रात इतरत्र पाऊस नाही. 
रात्रीचे थंड तापमान.

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Posted 23rd October:

The Western Disturbance mentioned in previous post (21st) ... Active today



First Snowfall in Pahalgam.. ❄🌨⋯





Hail in Jammu.. 

Thursday, October 21, 2021

 Posted 21st October

A Western Disturbance is  to affect  North India starting October 22. This system will have an effect over the hilly regions as well as the plains of North India. 🌧 ⛆

The WD will precipitate snow in the higher reaches.  Showers will in Himachal Pradesh whereas rains will be not as heavy over Uttarakhand. Thereafter, Uttarakhand will also come under the effect of the system and see some rain and snow in the higher regions.

Not severe, but may hamper restoration efforts. 

The WD will also result in some rains and thundershowers over the plains including North Rajasthan, Punjab, parts of Haryana.

Delhi may see cloudy skies with  some light rainfall around October 24. 

Rains may  occur in Amritsar & Chandigarh. 

From October 25, weather will clear up and temperatures will start to see a dip in the hills and the plains of North West India. 

The "wintery" Feel will commence.

Vagaries has mentioned Partial South West Monsoon withdrawal on 14th October (In Post). Complete withdrawal now by 24th...and Commencement of NEM from 24th/25th October.

Wind chart today ➡

wind chart forecast 25th..see NE winds along TN/A.P. coast



FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2026

X-axis represents years with monsoon rainfall, lowest of 697.4mm in 1972 (extreme left) to the highest of 1124.2 mm in 1917 (extreme right)....