Formation of BB in 8 and it's possible effect

New low BB-8 forming over Bay of Bengal off north AP coast. Likely to move west-northwest. 

This LPA clouding and rains could be more in interiors it seems as of now...leeward areas can benefit the most. Westerlies rains from Arabian Sea due to offshore trough may not be that great over Konkan and Ghats (means per day approx 50 mm coast, 100 mm Ghats, not double centuries). 

Interiors could see low max temperatures with moderate/heavy rains mainly next 2 days.

 Convergence and clouding will increase in its western sector.

Rains likely to increase over Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra from today.

Eastern Gujarat and upto Ahmedabad/Suredranagar could see good rains during 14th-16th August 

Mumbai: Next 3 days occasional showers with a couple of heavy falls. Rainfall increasing from the weekend.

Pune city light rains. Cumulative around 20-30 mms till Saturday. Eastern parts of Pune district may receive slightly more rain.

Weekend rainfall expected to be more frequent.

Jalgaon: Moderate showers on Thursday & Friday cumulative around 50-55 mms.

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Mumbai Colaba has received 1015mm rain so far in this season, which is a whopping -33.1% below normal.

Attached graph shows the rainfall variation in Mumbai Colaba so far this monsoon (green line). Blue line is climatology normal.

Source: IMD 

But we have 503 mms of May Rainfall to add...

Posting..12th August ...3.30 pm IST

Hurricanes, Cyclones and deep Weather Systems in the North Hemisphere as on 12th Afternoon IST

10th Night Post: 

Continuing from the 8th post, a Low pressure  BB 8, will form in the Bay around 16th/17th. Now, this system is expected to strengthen and move inland across Central India and move into M.P. Gujarat and Interior Maharshtra. 

Then move across Kutch into Sindh Region of Pakistan, bringing substantial rains all along upto Sindh.

Resultantly will boost up the lagging August Rainfall ( due to break in Monsoon).

Today, the Monsoon Axis is here 👇

On the BB 8 tracking West, the Monsoon Axis on 18th will be here 👇

Markedly strengthening the West Coast Off Shore Trough.

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Mumbai :

In a lighter vein, we observe, that the average Mumbaikar is rarely satisfied...when it rains we hear "too much rain" is it wettest ever ? A short 8 day dry spell in August and we hear " where are the Mumbai rains"?...whatever, the current weather will be getting wetter soon !

11th/12th/13th/14th/15th: Moderate occasional showers in different parts of city ( not widespread). Could amount to about 5 - 15 mms /day. ( An isolated heavy fall on 14th/15th possible in Northern Suburbs).

16th/17th /18th: Marked Increase in rainfall, with several heavy falls and gusty winds. Resumption of typical Monsoon conditions. ( Scenario will be updated on 15th seeing the Vagaries of the system 😑).

Pune: Light showers in city with a few localised heavy falls. Substantial increase in rains on 16th/17th weekend.

Krishna Janmashtami will always see rains 😄. { as SSET comments}

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Sambhajinagar and Marathwada will get light rains this week, but increase and heavy rainfall on 16th and 17th. Benefiting the standing crops and water position in Dams.

As on 3rd August, 11 major irrigation projects in Marathwada, including the Jayakwadi dam, were showing improved 68% live storage due to the latest showers. Corresponding level last year this date was 18%.

Gujarat: Increase and heavy rains next week end . Surat and Bharuch expected to get heavy rains.

This 8 day estimate may be revised if necessary before 15th.

 9th August 

Shravan Purnima, an auspicious day marking the end of the holy Shravan month, will be celebrated on Saturday, August 9.

Moderate monsoon conditions may affect travel and outdoor gatherings across northern and patts of central India.

Yesterday's Rainfall amounts

 Saturday/Sunday intermittent rain showers in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and parts of north India.

Mumbai is witnessing a monsoon break, with no significant rainfall in August. 

August has started dry, recording only 17 & 52 mms on city and suburbs respectively of rain in August so far.

This is strikingly low for August, typically the second rainiest month with a normal of 585.2 mm.

Main Monsoon events like the off-shore trough and Bay of Bengal systems are missing. Thus keeping rains in scarce form.

Chances of more rains are possible  as a cyclonic circulation is expected over the Northwest Bay by 11–12 August, possibly leading to a low-pressure system.

Rain may return by 15th  August. Until then, warm and sultry weather continues. 

9th - 15th :Few passing showers with warm sultry day and stuffy nights.Increase in rains after 15th.Temperatures between 31° and 25°c.

A lot being mentioned about the devastating floods in Uttarakhand. 

And being said is " A Cloud Burst"

What is defined as a "Cloud Burst" ?

Read in Weather Knowledge Blog...Page 5 ..no 49

 4th August Post:

Forecasts show a Surprise La Niña Return ahead of Winter 2025/2026, bringing seasonal Weather impacts

By AuthorAndrej Flis

• Current Status:

  ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remaining near average. 

La Niña Effect on India 

1.La Nina can influence the formation and intensity of cyclones in the Bay. 

2.Colder Winters:

 La Niña often brings colder-than-normal winters to northern India, with increased western disturbances and stronger westerly winds, Potentially leading to frost and cold waves.

 

Posted onWe are currently in a neutral phase, coming out of a weak La Niña from the last Winter. But while the oceans are currently calm, the latest forecasts show something stirring for the Fall and Winter seasons.

Latest forecasts show a surprising return of La Niña, expected to emerge during the Fall season as a weak to moderate event. Early predictions already show a possible impact on seasonal weather patterns, especially during Winter 2025/2026.

This is a surprising shift, considering most forecasts earlier this year showed a neutral phase, with even some signs of an El Niño. But the atmosphere seems to play a different weather game.

The cold ENSO phase is called La Niña, and the warm phase is El Niño. Besides the temperatures, one of the main differences between the phases is the pressure patterns they develop, seen below as high (H) and low (L) pressure zones in the Pacific.

During a La Niña, the pressure is higher over the region, creating stable conditions and fewer storms over the equatorial Pacific. These pressure changes translate into global circulation over time, affecting seasonal weather over both Hemispheres.