Summarised MW 2
Monsoon Watch – 2 (2025)
Status as on 21st April
1. Cross Equatorial Winds – 🟡 Normal
Western Sector (Arabian Sea):
- SE winds forming off East African coast
- Disorganized above 7°S — needs improvement
Eastern Sector (Bay of Bengal):
- No strong westerlies hitting Sumatra
- Disrupting low at 5°S (80–90E)
Color Cue:
🟡 Yellow – Partially organized; fair progress but still patchy
2. Seasonal Low Formation – 🔴 Negative
Land Heating:
- Mild heatwave in Central India
- Max: 47°C (Nawabshah), 46°C (Rajasthan)
- Nights cooler than earlier record years
Core Low Pressure:
- Now at 1004 mb (improved from MW-1)
- Needs to reach 994 mb by June
LWD (Line of Wind Discontinuity):
- Not yet formed
- Sparse pre-monsoon thundershowers
Color Cue:
🔴 Red – Below expectation; progress too slow
3. ENSO Status – 🟢 Neutral
Current SST Trends:
- Central Pacific: Near/below normal
- Eastern Pacific: Slightly above normal
Forecast:
- ENSO-Neutral likely through summer 2025
- No El Niño or La Niña imminent
Color Cue:
🟢 Green – Stable; no interference expected from ENSO
4. Bay of Bengal Activity – 🔴 Negative
Pre-Monsoon Low:
- 1 weak low formed (post-MW1)
Other Signals:
- Warm sea temperatures (positive)
- MJO still weak — not supporting cyclogenesis
Color Cue:
🔴 Red – Bay branch still dormant; needs rapid pickup
5. ITCZ Position – 🟡 Normal
Current Position:
- Just south of equator (~5°S)
- Should cross equator by early May
Color Cue:
🟡 Yellow – On track, but still a waiting game
Overall Summary Table
Final Verdict:
4 out of 5 parameters are not favorable
Limited improvement since MW-1
Monsoon evolution is sluggish; needs momentum in next 10–15 days
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