Saturday, July 15, 2006

SW Monsoon as yet

Well, as these are my first jottings, I want to just analyse the monsoon performance in India so far. As on 12th July, overall the monsoon is deficient by 10%. But I will just analyse it area wise to make it simpler. Rainfall is excess in Gujarat and west Maharastra, and deficient in M.P, Chattisgarh, north A.P and the North East. And normal elsewhere.

Now, checking on Mumbai, the rain is almost 25% excess. But the rain has not been uniform and has actually fallen in two major spurts, one from 28th June till 6th July and the earlier spell from 20th June to 25th. There is a dry spell now, which will hopefully be broken by tomorrow, if the "low" over the Bay crosses the coast.

Interior peninsular rain is normal, but the prolonged dry spell since 6th July till today, is unfavourable for farming and soil moisture. More Depressions from the Bay are now needed to enhance soil moisture, and we have got only two so far against the normal of 2/3 in June and at least 3 in July.

More observations after following the next development. It is Nature, we have to just see and observe, she knows best !

Thanks, Rajesh.

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