Weather outlook for October first week: Strong Western Disturbance for Western and Central Himalayas, twin low pressures and Monsoon persisting

Chances of moderate-heavy rain in low to mid elevations and moderate-heavy snow in high elevations of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nepal during 4th to 7th October. Rains/thunderstorms for the northern plains.

Red alert for Himalayas!

Possible cause: Jet Stream Dynamics...reasoning given below:

• A very strong dip in the Polar Jet Stream over Europe will cause it to split, with southern part merging with the subtropical westerly jet stream near Mediterranean/west Asia region with a powerful midlatitude storm at the surface over the Mediterranean Sea and a very strong trough aloft.

    Trough in the subtropical westerly Jet Stream over the eastern Mediterranean on 3rd October (note: Map does not depict the actual boundaries of all the countries)

• The upper level trough over the Mediterranean is likely to get further amplified by the merging of Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda into the Jet Stream across the Atlantic (energy propagating downstream from the region of peak winds, downstream amplification of trough).

• The energy from this trough over eastern Mediterranean will propagate east and cause another strong trough to develop downstream (further east of the parent trough) over the Western Himalayas from 4th/5th October onwards.

IMD GFS model forecast of 200 hPa winds for 6th October.

ECMWF model forecast for the same (note: Map does not depict the actual boundaries of all the countries)

• This WD trough as it deepens, can interact with the newly formed monsoon deep depression BB-15 and cause heavy rains for central and eastern Nepal, Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Bhutan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during 4th/5th October.

850 hPa winds showing BB-14 off Saurashtra coast (depression) and BB-15 off the AP coast (deep depression).

• The WD trough will become strong enough to dip south up to the northern Arabian Sea by 5th/6th, pulling in strong moist southwesterly winds till the western Himalayas, bringing unseasonably heavy rain/snow.

• There is already good moisture over western states from SW winds because of the depression BB-14 off the Saurashtra coast. BB-14 could intensify into a deep depression and will continue to push SW winds into Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Due to this, rains/thunderstorms also expected across Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh from 5th to 7th October.

SW Monsoon withdrawal will be delayed due to the additional moisture push from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal due to the WD and monsoon depressions BB-14 and BB-15.

However, after the WD moves away eastwards, winds are expected to quickly reverse with a ridge establishing over Rajasthan and dry northerlies expected across north, west and central India.

A quick exit of monsoon could happen from entire Gujarat and many parts of Maharashtra around 13th/14th October...more details on monsoon withdrawal in subsequent days.

Final Rainfall Topper in mm for the SWM 2025 (122 days from June 1 to Sep 30)

On Pradeep's Page

Final Rainfall Topper in mm for the SWM 2025 (122 days from June 1 to Sep 30)

Some fun facts. Cherrapunji recorded 4355 mm rainfall for the monsoon season which is the lowest ever beating the previous record of 4969 mm in the year 1884. Chinnakallar in Tamil Nadu recorded 4355 mm which equal the Cherrapunji numbers.

Tamini 9380 is by far the wettest place in India and might be the wettest place in world in this period.

The driest place in this monsoon many parts of Tiruppur, Ramanthapuram and Thoothukudi districts in Tamil Nadu with not a drop of rain falling in the entire 122 days. All the driest places are from Tamil Nadu. Certain regions of Thoothukudi, Nellai, Ramanathapuram, Dindigul, Coimbatore and Tiruppur are dry regions in SWM.

All India Toppers
------------------
1. Tamini, Maharashtra - 9380
2. Hulikal, Karnataka - 7903
3. Patherpunj, Maharashtra - 7633
4. Masthikatte, Karnataka – 7551
5. Shirgaon, Maharashtra - 7459
6. Mani, Karnataka - 7277
7. Dawadi, Maharashtra - 7164
8. Amboli, Maharashtra - 7058
9. Agumbe, Karnataka – 6861

10. Dongerwadi, Maharashtra - 6747

Maharashtra
------------
1. Tamini - 9380

2. Patherpunj - 7633
3. Shirgaon - 7459
4. Dawadi - 7164

5. Amboli - 7058

6. Dongerwadi - 6747

7. Dajipur - 6637

8. Walwan - 6590

9. Paragon - 6590

10. Ambona - 6562

Karnataka

-------------
1. Hulikal, Shivamogga - 7903

2. Masthikatte, Shivamogga - 7551
3. Mani, Shivamogga - 7277
4. Agumbe, Shivamogga – 6861
5. Castle Rock, Uttar Kannada - 6692
6. Surlabbi, Kodagu - 6686
7. Chakra, Shivamogga - 6627
8. Yadur, Shivamogga - 6504
9. Nilkund, Uttar Kannada - 6504
10. Savehaklu, Shivamogga - 6434

Kerala
---------
1. Kakkyam Dam, Kozhikode – 5692
2. Painavu, Idukki – 4396
3. Pulingome, Kannur - 4395
4. Payyavoor, Kannur – 4216
5. Kottiyoor, Kannur – 4089
6. Kakki Dam, Pathanamthitta - 3987
7.  Kulamavu, Idukki - 3765 
8. Alakkode, Kannur – 3733
9. Peruvannamuzhi, Kozhikode – 3550
10. Paika, Kasargode - 3545

Goa
------
1. Dharbondara – 4114
2. Sanguem – 4096
3. Valpoi - 3983
4. Quepem – 3847
5. Ponda – 3286

Tamil Nadu
-------
1. Chinnakallar – 4355
2. Avalanche – 3443
3. Valparai PTO – 3058
4. Nelliyam - 2592
5. Pandalur - 2433

West Bengal 
---------
1. Buxaduar - 3020
2. Alipurduar - 2678
3. Banarhat - 2423
4. Maynagiri - 2255
5. Malbazzar - 2222

Meghalaya
------------
1. Mawsynram - 5356
2. RKM Cherrapunji - 4561
3. Cherrapunji – 4355

Uttrakhand
---------
1. Sama – 4528
2. Loharkhet – 4040

Gujarat
------------
1. Kaprada – 3890
2. Umerpada – 3179
3. Khergam - 2998 
4. Dharampur - 2862
5. Dolvan – 2793

Andaman & Nicobar Islands
------------
1. Long Island - 2554
2. Port Blair - 2331
3. Mayabunder - 2151
4. Hutbay - 1581
5. Car Nicobar - 1275

Top Metro Cities
-------------
1. Mumbai Airport - 3112
2. Mumbai City – 2263
3. Kolkata - 1659
4. Ahmedabad – 953
5. Hyderabad - 881
6. Pune Airport - 950
7. Pune City – 849
8. Chennai City – 686
9. Delhi City – 640
10. Delhi Airport -598
11. Bengaluru City – 548
12. Bengaluru Airport - 537
13. Chennai Airport - 364

Driest places in entire SWM (All from Tamil Nadu)
---------------------
1. Rameshwaram, Ramanathapuram - 0

1. Thangachimadam, Ramanathapuram - 0

1. Madathukulam, Tiruppur - 0

1. Nallathangal Odai Reservoir, Tiruppur - 0

1. Keelarasadi, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Kulasekarapattinam, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Maniyachi, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Tiruchendur, Thoothukudi - 0

1. Vedanatham, Thoothukudi - 0

2. Pallamorkulam, Ramanathapuram - 1

3. Pamban IMD, Ramanathapuram – 1.3

3. Srivaikuntapuram, Thoothukudi - 1.3

4. Thoothukudi IMD - 1.8

5. Kakkor, Ramanthapuram - 2.4

6. Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 3.2

7. Dharapuram, Tiruppur - 4

8. Kayalpattinam, Thoothukudi - 4

9. Vaippar, Thoothukudi - 5

10. Vallikonam, Ramanathapuram - 8.2

Thanks to Ranjith Gowda for the Karnataka Toppers and Ashwin from Coimbatore for Driest Places in India.

FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2025

The monsoon distribution from 1901 till date is given below;

This year's monsoon total rainfall (preliminary) matches the 2013 figure of 937.2 mm.

X-axis represents years with monsoon rainfall, highest of 1124.2mm in 1917 (extreme right) to the lowest of 697.4 mm in 1972 (extreme left).

   The following chart shows the monsoon rainfall from 2014 to 2025;

Key observations:

From 2014 to 2018, actual rainfall remained below baseline, reaching a –14% deviation in 2015.

In 2019–2020, actual rainfall exceeded baseline by 9–10%, peaking at +10% in 2019.

2021 saw a slight shortfall (–1%), followed by positive deviations in 2022 (+6%) and 2024 (+8%).

The 11-year span highlights variability, with clear swings between wetter and drier years relative to baseline.

       

 Finally the full report with all the details;

Mahabaleshwar Monsoon 2025

Mahabaleshwar got 6197.5mm rain this monsoon. 

No. of days with 100mm+ rain = 16 days

No. pf days with 200mm+ rain = 4 days

No. of days with 300mm+ rain = 1 day

The attached graph shows daily rain variation in Mahabaleshwar from 1 June-30 September. Data: IMD

Seasonal readings from Private Weather Stations of Vagarians

Badlapur: Abbhijit, Borivali: Nilay, Deonar, Ronnie, thane: Shriraj, Club: Willingdon

 29th Post:

Well Marked Low moving West and may strengthen.

👇

Effect in Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra In cms👇

 28th Night Post: (Mumbai /Pune outlook below) 

BB 14 brought rain and cooler days for Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra on 28th

And rainfall in 12 hrs 8.30 am - 8.30 pm :

Colaba : 93 mms

Scruz: 55 mms

Nasik : 50 mms

Dahanu: 87 mms

System now over Gujarat;

Heavy rains now in Gujarat.Low chances that System may strengthen to Depression.

As the system moves away from Maharshtra, we will see rainfall decreasing in Maharashtra from Monday 29th till 3rd October. ( Another Low may be brewing up by then).

Outlook for 29th Monday - 3rd October Friday.

Mumbai > Decreasing rainfall next week. Periods of warm sunshine and few passing showers.

Pune> Next week will be almost dry with light rains in patches. Cooler nights during next week around 19c.

Chances of rainfall increasing for 1)Mumbai as 2) Pune and 3) Maharashtra from 3rd/4th October ....Monsoon persisting.

Sambhajinagar: Drier week, best chance to remove and harvest the Jowar and Maize crops now.

 Mumbai Gujarat Updated on blog at 10.30

*Top 10 Rainfall places in Mumbai (BMC) in last 6hrs. (8.30am to 2.30pm on 28-9-25)*

Byculla Fire station 79mm

Colaba Fire Station 78mm

Chincholi Fire Station 71mm

Frosberry reservoir 70mm

Borivali Fire station 67mm

Malvani Fire Station 65mm

MCGM head office 64mm

Mulund Check Naka 63mm

Bandra Fire Station 63mm

Kandivali Fire Station 62mm

28th Morning Post

Mumbai outlook for Sunday 28th 

As the Low Pressure moves West from North Maharashtra, we can expect a convergence leading to rain bands formation over North Konkan.

Mumbai will get intermittent heavy showers throughout Sunday till night.

Gusty winds at times.

Day rains may be around 120 -150 mms.

Vulnerable areas flooding possible. 

-------------

 Saurashtra  ( Junagadh), Gujarat region ( Baroda,  Bharuch,  Surat) to expect full intensity of system.

Mumbai outlook for Sunday 28th:

Rain from late Saturday night to Sunday night can lead to localized flash flooding in some vulnerable.

Frequent/ occasional moderate-heavy rain expected, occasional thunder. Overall between in-100 mm average rainfall expected. Localized areas could get a little heavier rainfall..

Rainfall may extend into Monday. 

Max temp on 27th, (cooler days): Pune 25.3°,Ahilyangr 25.3°,Colaba 26.8°, Scruz 27.6°.

26th Morning

Dry air trying to intrude...but halted by BB-14 low moving in from Bay and monsoon westerlies strengthening from the Arabian Sea

With the system BB 14 moving in westwards, though lagging in intensity, Vagaries will maintain its Maharashtra  wet weekend outlook.

Vagaries' Orange Alert for Mumbai/Pune for Sunday 28th/Monday 30th.

Mumbai,: After a few days, Mumbai will get rains commencing from Saturday 27th.  Heavy rains on Sunday 28th and Monday 29th. Cumulative on Sunday/Monday could be between 100 - 150 mms. Very heavy falls in some areas.

 Heavy rain expected in Thane, Raigad and Palghar districts

Pune: Clear skies going with rains on Saturday 27th. Sunday 28th and Monday29th will be quite heavy. Cool days.

{Will get good rains on 28th/29th...but all areas may not get uniform...North Konkan from Raigad to Palghar belt including Mumbai/Thane have good chance of rain...but live tracking being done}

Mumbai/Pune Monsoon will persist till least 8th October or beyond.

Sambhajinagar: Moderate heavy showers on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Expected Cumulative rains around 50-60 mms.

Goa: Moderate to heavy rains from Saturday 27th/28th/29th

South West Monsoon will withdraw from Rajasthan, Punjab, J&K, H.P, Western Haryana and Kutch by 24th...

Heavy Rains from BB 14 Low Pressure:

In Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada from 27th to 30th. Monsoon will persist till 5th October at least.

Mumbai: 24th/25th/26th: Occasional showers with average rainfall between 25-40 mms /day.

27th/28th/29th: torrential and heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds. Rainfall between 150-200 mms cumulative.

Pune: 24/25/26: Few showers and scattered rains. 27th/28th heavy thundershowers. 

Cumulative 3 day rains may exceed 100 mms.

Sambhajinagar: Heavy thundershowers on 26th/27th/28th with gusty winds. 

Farmers need to protect their standing crops from gusty winds and flooded fields due to saturated soils

.संभाजीनगर: २६/२७/२८ रोजी जोरदार वाऱ्यासह मुसळधार पाऊस.

शेतकऱ्यांनी त्यांच्या उभ्या पिकांचे सोसाट्याच्या वाऱ्यांपासून आणि संतृप्त मातीमुळे पाण्याखाली जाणाऱ्या शेतांपासून संरक्षण करणे आवश्यक आहे.

Jalgaon: Moderate to heavy rains on 28th/29th/30th with upto 20-40 mms/day.

 

 

 22nd Morning Post: 

South West Monsoon Withdrawal from West Rajasthan maintained.

We expect further withdrawal to   👉 cover extreme West Punjab by 24th.

With the BB-14 advancing into Eastern parts, Rains are expected to occur into Delhi NCR and West U.P.

So,Vagaries holds back further withdrawal till this weekend.

The current scenario and development for next 6 days shows the Low BB 14 strengthening and moving inland from the Bay.

Rains and thundershowers an be expected 0n 23rd/24th into Odisha, East M.P. And Chattisgarh. 

Long term Forecast for Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South Gujrat Region: 

Heavy thundershowers to occur in these regions from 27th weekend till 30th September.

Mumbai, Pune, Sambhajinagar, Surat and Bharuch to possibly get a very wet weekend. Estimates for the weekend cumulative rainfall ; Mumbai 200-250 mms, Pune 100 mms, Surat 100-150 mms.

Marathwada farmers to take full precautions to ( tall) standing crops against heavy rains and gusty winds on the weekend 26th to 29th.

२६ ते २९ तारखेच्या आठवड्याच्या शेवटी मुसळधार पाऊस आणि सोसाट्याच्या वाऱ्यांपासून मराठवाड्यातील शेतकऱ्यांनी (उंच) उभ्या पिकांची पूर्ण खबरदारी घ्यावी.

This will be reviewed and clarified on 24th afternoon for surety.

 Thanks to all Co Author's, Vagarians and Followers.

 Weather Knowledge Blog 63 updated

20th September Post:

A  low pressure area likely to emerge off Myanmar- Bangladesh coasts around 25th September, 2025.

Navratri Outlook  👉

 Rainfall and thundershowers in :

Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on 25th & 26th September.

South Gujarat Region heavy showers on 27th/28th/29th.

19th September: Maharashtra Rainfall:

Rains In Konkan:

Savarde-arg (dist Ratnagiri) 15, Chiplun (dist Ratnagiri) 9, Mahad (dist Raigad) 7, Sudhagad Pali (dist Raigad) 7, Murud (dist Raigad) 6, Guhagarh (dist Ratnagiri) 6, Malvan (dist Sindhudurg) 6, Matheran (dist Raigad) 6, Wakwali_agri (dist Ratnagiri) 6, 

Rains in Madhya Maharashra:

Pune City - Imd Obsy (dist Pune) 10, Gaganbawada (dist Kolhapur) 6, Khandala Bavda (dist Satara) 6

Rains In Marathwada: 

Washi (dist Dharashiv) 22, Aundha Nagnath (dist Hingoli) 8, Bhum (dist Dharashiv) 6, Ausa (dist Latur) 6

*Pune Rainfall Recorded (in mm) (from 0830 hours IST of 18.09.2025 to 0830 hours IST of 19.09.2025):*        

                                                                                    PASHAN 140.6

SHIVAJINAGAR 97.4

KURVANDE 68.5

LAVALE 54.5

CHINCHWAD 44.0

HADAPSAR 37.5

MALIN 29.0

MAGARAPATTA 29.0

HAVELI 20.5

DUDULGAON 20.5

RAJGURUNAGAR 7.5

DAPODI 6.0

BARAMATI 5.8

NIMGIRI 4.5

DAUND 1.5

TALEGAON 1.0

-----------------------------------------------------------

On 18th, Local convection type cloud formations around Pune Region ...For Pune, Vagaries( and all) go out of bounds 

Heavy Rains lashed parts of Pune 

15 UTC Rainfall(mm) dt. 18.09.2025

Zomato: 

Bopkhel: 103mm

Aundh: 89.2mm

Pimple saudagar: 84.8mm

Sus: 73.6mm 

Baner: 52.6mm

Bavdhan: 33mm

Yerwada: 30.4mm

Sadashiv peth: 33.8mm

Lesser rain in these areas till 5.30 pm👇

HADAPSAR 14.0

LAVALE 6.5

RAJGURUNAGAR 1.5

MAGARAPATTA 1.0

[987.8mm so far is the annual rain for pune shivajinagar since 1jan till 18sep 830pm

[ September rain till 8:30pm for pune shivajinagar is 197.4mm

[Yearwise september rain

2013: 221.7mm

2014: 128.5mm

2015: 173.7mm

2016: 58.5mm

2017: 151.7mm

2018: 30.3mm

2019: 287.7mm

2020: 198mm

2021: 83.6mm

2022: 232mm

2023: 165.7mm

2024: 207.8mm

2025 : 197.4mm (till 8:30pm of 18sep)

This is only the 2nd time since 2014 (1st after 2019) that in September 2 days has recorded 50mm+ rain in pune shivajinagar

In 2019: 3 days were 50mm+

Compiled by Vagarian Vineet Kumar 

 Uttarakhand Excessive Rainfall this Month:

On 18th:

Last week

Month

17th September this year ,2025, the Monsoon All India rainfall has reached the Monsoon annual normal,which is 869 mms on date...(Likely to be about 920 mm this year by 30th September) 

Monsoon rainfall from 2016

[In last 10 years Monsoon Rainfall: 

4 years had more than 900 mm...2019,2020,2022,2024

 Lowest was in 2018 @802.7 mm

Highest in 2019 @971.7 mm, 

Average of last 9 years 888.9 mm] 

India has seen significant variation in rainfall over the last 120 years, with peak monsoon rainfall recorded in 1917..1124 mm and the driest is 1972..697 mm since records began in 1901. 

While some regions show increasing rainfall trends, others face increasing deficits, with the IMD providing long-term averages and seasonal data for detailed analysis of rainfall patterns. 

Key Highlights from the Last 120 Years

• Highest Monsoon Rainfall: 

  The year 1917 recorded the highest monsoon rainfall in the 1901-2020 period. 
• Driest August in 2023: 

  August 2023 was the driest August since 1901, with a 36% rainfall deficit compared to the normal rainfall of 255 mm. 
• Regional Trends:

  • Some areas, like Konkan & Goa, have experienced significant increasing trends in annual and southwest monsoon rainfall over the last 120 years. 
  • Other regions have seen significant rainfall deficits. 
• Data Sources: 

  The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
• 
  
• Compiled by Vag GSBagga 

 16th September;...afternoon Post

Mumbai:

September 16th: Thick cloud cover in  the day with few showers in spots. Night also with spotty showers. !0-15 mms

September17th-19th: Decreasing rains with Partly cloudy with sunny periods. some passing showers with gusty winds (10-15 kmph); about 7-12 mms per day.

No Alerts.

Pune: 

September16th : cloudy with moderate showers in parts of city.

September 17th-20th: partly cloudy with light drizzles in some spots .

No Alerts.

Sambhajinagar: 

16th - 20th: Cloudy skies with few passing showers of moderate intensit by afternoon/evening.

standing crops will need protection from winds next week after 24th.

15th September 

Mumbai rains reduce post noon on Monday. 

8.30 am  to 8.30 pm

Colaba : 24.7 mm. 

Temp Max 25.8° ( -4.8°). 

Scruz : 29.6 mm.

Temp Max 25.7° ( -5.1°)

Borivali ( Mumbai): 72 mms 

Pune: 4.4 mm 

Temp Max 25.7° ( - 3.8°).

Ahilyanagar: 31.6 mm. 

Temp Max 23.4° (-6.2°).  Min also 23.4°

 15th Morning: Continuing.

Pune rains today 

Heavy Rains in South Mumbai..North Mumbai lesser impact