24th April..2025

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Summarised MW 2

Monsoon Watch – 2 (2025)

Status as on 21st April

---

1. Cross Equatorial Winds – 🟡 Normal

Western Sector (Arabian Sea):

• SE winds forming off East African coast
• Disorganized above 7°S — needs improvement

Eastern Sector (Bay of Bengal):

• No strong westerlies hitting Sumatra
• Disrupting low at 5°S (80–90E)

Color Cue:
🟡 Yellow – Partially organized; fair progress but still patchy

---

2. Seasonal Low Formation – 🔴 Negative

Land Heating:

• Mild heatwave in Central India
• Max: 47°C (Nawabshah), 46°C (Rajasthan)
• Nights cooler than earlier record years

Core Low Pressure:

• Now at 1004 mb (improved from MW-1)
• Needs to reach 994 mb by June

LWD (Line of Wind Discontinuity):

• Not yet formed
• Sparse pre-monsoon thundershowers

Color Cue:
🔴 Red – Below expectation; progress too slow

---

3. ENSO Status – 🟢 Neutral

Current SST Trends:

• Central Pacific: Near/below normal
• Eastern Pacific: Slightly above normal

Forecast:

• ENSO-Neutral likely through summer 2025
• No El Niño or La Niña imminent

Color Cue:
🟢 Green – Stable; no interference expected from ENSO

---

4. Bay of Bengal Activity – 🔴 Negative

Pre-Monsoon Low:

• 1 weak low formed (post-MW1)

Other Signals:

• Warm sea temperatures (positive)
• MJO still weak — not supporting cyclogenesis

Color Cue:
🔴 Red – Bay branch still dormant; needs rapid pickup

---

5. ITCZ Position – 🟡 Normal

Current Position:

• Just south of equator (~5°S)
• Should cross equator by early May

Color Cue:
🟡 Yellow – On track, but still a waiting game

---

Overall Summary Table

---

Final Verdict:

4 out of 5 parameters are not favorable
Limited improvement since MW-1
Monsoon evolution is sluggish; needs momentum in next 10–15 days

---

Monsoon Watch - 2...2025 ....21st April
Further Analysis of the parameters discussed in MW-1... 

Position as on 21st April :
1.Cross Equatorial Winds:
Let me explain, that the winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. i) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and ii) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 

Normal April Winds

Current Winds

During Monsoon Watch -1 , the cross equatorial flow was not at all organised.

i) The cross equatorial wind flow, has yet to organise  up in the Western sector Southern Hemisphere. Winds, are now setting in the required SE direction off the East African Coast. Winds from South East direction as required, are just below the Trough along the 7S line. Above 7S, the winds are Westerlies. The Northwards movement of the ITCZ will surely hasten and strengthen the winds.

ii) In the eastern sector, in the Bay Branch, the Cross equatorial winds are not organised Westwards towards the Sumatra Coast.  "Low" at  5S  below the Equator between 80E and 90E are keeping the cross flow winds dis organised. The winds hitting Sumatra coast are not Westerly (as required), and also need to gather strength soon.

And that is exactly where the start should be for the SWM to arrive at the Andamans. 

We prefer the Bay Branch to be better organised, as the SW Monsoon is normally expected there in less than a month.

Indicator: Normal

Mascarene high pressure zones in the South Indian Ocean. Main High reading now 1022 mb and another two at 1024 mb has been observed between Madagascar and Australia.

The "Power House" of the Monsoon winds is slightly behind schedule, for this time of the season. But it is expected to strengthen fast with no tropical storms around. Hence would hasten the Cross Equatorial Wind flow.

Indicator : -ve

2. Seasonal Low: 
 Mild Heat wave conditions are currently observed only in the Central Regions of Sub Continent. 

(By Heat waves, we mean temperatures over 5-7c above normal..not the normal heat.)

The core low formation region(Thar desert/Sindh) has heated up normally this summer . The highest in the region of Thar /Sindh has been around 46c, and Rajasthan, India touched 46c. 

Max Temperature departure Anomaly since MW -1
Map of North India borders not correct

(Highest in 2025 is 47c in Nawabshah on 7th April.)

Nights are cooler than last few years, and Barmer saw an Isolated 31.5c on 8th April 2025
See the 14 days Min temperature anomaly

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

{Previous Performances :

In 2017, Barmer had approached 46 c and recorded min temp above 30 c. April heat records had tumbled at many locations in the subcontinent. On 19th April 2017, first ever 50 c temperature in April in Asia has been recorded at Larkana (Sindh).

Temperatures of more than 45 c had already been recorded in many states of India . Even at Srinagar (Kashmir),Shimla (Himachal) temperatures  approached around 29 c in April 2017 . Delhi AP was 44.9 c on 20th April 2017.

In 2017,  Most of India was in the 4-7c above normal range and pockets shooting to 15 c above normal ...

Earlier than normal,the night temperatures had also crossed the 30c mark ! Barmer in Rajasthan recorded 30.4c as minimum on 15th April ,Kurnool (Andhra) saw a low of 31 c on 19th morning and Jhansi (UP) saw a low of 31.6 c on 21st morning.

Jaipur,Kota,Bundi,Alwar,Bikaner,Churu,Pilani (Rajasthan), Cuddapah(Andhra) saw lows of/above 30 c on 21st April 2017 morning.

Comparison with previous years shows the difference this year. In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 

But, in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, till date, temperatures were  yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent . 

2015...Into the 3rd. week of April , we had seen 48c in Pakistan on 19th April in Larkana,and 46.5c in Moen Jo Daro. In India had just topped 44.6c in Barmer on 19th April.

2016....touched 46c in Bankura on 16th April...and was constantly hot in Eastern region with almost daily ,a place touching 46c.. Bhubaneshwar and Titlagarh in India and Dadu in Pakistan had touched 46c. Several large regions in Vidharbh, Telengana and MP were in the 44/43c range.}
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The seasonal Low, as a result of nominal heating, is shaping up " Progressively". It has shown progress after MW 1 when it was 1008 mb.
Strengthening of the seasonal low over NW India is required, and a weak Core formation at 1004 mb is seen .

MSLP Chart

As mentioned, it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

{Previous:
2018: The lowest pressure, in the core (Thar Desert) region was at 1006 mb.( 2017 was  998/1000 mb). (In 2011/2014 was 1006 mb, 2010/2012 was at 1002 mb. 2015/2016 it was at 1000-1002 mb).} 

The Line of Wind Discontinuity, which brings Pre Monsoon Thunder showers across the Peninsula, is not forming .LWD should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 

This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April.

Currently Pre Monsoon Thunder Showers are missing

  ( Some activity seen in patches along Coastal A.P. and Odisha…..after  MW 1 release.)

In reality, this LWD ( full formed) remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ICTZ moves towards the Sub Continent.
Indicator: -ve

3. ENSO: 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean and are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

 ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025. 

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
 

Indicator: heading towards Neutral

4. The Bay has hosted 1 pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. The high pressure region in the Bay, at sea level, no longer prevails. 

A strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation.

Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay. Currently , the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula are above normal normal.

°C

0

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

24

27

30

35

We prefer the Bay parameters to show progress faster , as the SW Monsoon is expected there in less than a month…

Indicator: -ve

5. To bring the existing SE winds above the equator (as SW), the ITCZ should move northwards. Around 1st. of May, this should cross the equator. The ITCZ should now come back to its Northward position, as the effective "Lows" created by the Rossby Wave are reducing. 
ITCZ is just south of the equator (1 s).
Indicator: Normal

So, overall, we can summarise as:
Parameter:    1) -ve   2) -ve  3) Neutral  4) -ve   5) Normal.

Summary : Four parameters  -ve as of today . Parameters have not improved much compared to MW 1 .

We will put up the estimated date of arrival for Andamans and Kerala in the MW-3.

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 
Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 

Next MW- 3 up on 1st May with Dates of Monsoon Arrival.

Monsoon Watch - 2 Posting on 2ist April 

Outlook Posting 19th Night

High Pressure in Arabia Sea brings Strong winds along North Maharashtra .

Today's Day top 10.           👉

 and the Outlook👇

 19th Morning Post

Western Disturbance Active in J&K

Beginning of Lows Formation and details of Season in 2024... 

Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal

Cyclone Remal

After four months of inactivity, on 21 May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) began monitoring a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal. Later that day, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) would also begin tracking the system, noting that it was likely to become a monsoon depression. The next day, the IMD noted that a low-pressure area had formed adjacent to the cyclonic circulation. Late on 23 May, the IMD upgraded the system into a well-marked low, stating that it was rapidly coalescing. The next day, the IMD stated that the depression formed in the Bay of Bengal, designating it as BOB 01. Subsequently, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA), noting the depression's broad circulation center and its improving rainbands. The next day, BOB 01 intensified into a deep depression. The JTWC would recognize the system as a cyclone, designating it as 01B. 

Soon after, the depression intensified into a cyclonic storm, causing the IMD to name it Remal. On 26 May, Remal intensified into a severe cyclonic storm with 3-minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph). Due to favourable conditions, including high sea surface temperatures over northern Bay of Bengal and low wind shear, Remal intensified further with wind speeds reaching 110 km/h. It made landfall over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal on the night of 26 May. Landfall process was completed by the morning of 27 May and it had weakened into a cyclonic storm.

Weather Knowledge  Blog Updated with No.57

 Clouds Hover Over the Alaska Peninsula

16th Night Post:

Overall 5 days Outlook ....High Pressure In Arabian Sea causes Strong Winds in NW India and Strong N/NE winds around North Konkan ( Mumbai) and Gujarat.

2/3 degrees above Normal Day time Temperatures expected:👇

Sambhajinagar👇

City Format and Concept From Foreca Site

 Now...Another part of the World sees cold wave 

'Cherry blossoms and snow at the same time': Seoul sees first mid-April snow since 1907

Published: 13 Apr. 2025, 17:42

People walk along the cherry blossom road in Yeongdeungpo District, western Seoul, on April 13. [JOONGANG ILBO]

 
Spring took a strange turn in Seoul on Saturday when the first mid-April snow since 1907 fell on the city, turning a day of cherry blossoms into one of icy roads. 
 
The weather turned sharply, as daytime temperatures above 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) turned to cold, strong winds, hail and icy roads within hours starting Saturday night.

The temperature in Seoul dropped to 1.1 degrees Celsius on Sunday, with strong winds contributing to a wind chill of minus 2.4 degrees Celsius. 
 
Social media users posted photos and videos overnight of cherry blossoms covered in snow. 
 
“It feels strange to see cherry blossoms and snow at the same time,” one user wrote.

Songwol-dong of Jongno District, central Seoul, saw accumulated snow of up to 0.6 centimeters (0.24 inches) between Saturday night and Sunday morning, marking the second-largest snowfall recorded in April after the 2.3 centimeters logged on April 6, 1931. 
 
Suwon, Gyeonggi, also saw its first mid-April snow on Saturday since the city's weather observations began there in 1964.

-------------------------

What Spring? Snow Blankets the Northeast.

Two to five inches of snow fell over an area stretching from Albany, N.Y., to Maine overnight Friday into Saturday morning, forecasters said.

Residents across a broad stretch of the Northeast woke up on Saturday to snow blanketing backyards and frosting trees, just as the pastel colors of Easter promised that spring was near.

An area stretching from around Albany, N.Y., to Maine experienced moderate snowfall, mostly from two to five inches, overnight Friday into Saturday morning

 

 10 Hotspots in India on 13th 

 12th April

No record breaking heat is expected in entire India in next 10 days

 10th April 

Summer weather update

Westerly winds from Arabian Sea expected to strengthen for next 3-4 days. Increased humidity for Mumbai region till the weekend...with some increasing clouds mainly during evenings and early morning hours⛅

Max temperature around 33°C, min around 26°C

Heatwave for Thane district (currently 41°C-43°C) may reduce.

Localized showers/thundery development possible for Ghats.

Pune: Day temperature may drop below 40°C and remain around 38°C. Some clouding towards the evening, with a small chance of light showers/thundershowers mainly on 11th-12th. Nights getting a bit pleasant with min around 21°C

 
Monsoon Watch - 1... 2025...8th April 2019

These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries. 

The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.
And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments. 

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting its share of 2025 monsoon rains !

This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.

 Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS DATE.

It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.

Initially, in the first few parts, of this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date. 
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet. 

There are 2 parts to this article:
A)-This is the Ideal Conditions  During SWM Onset in Early June. 

and 

B)below indicates the actual situation of the parameters situation today (8th April).

A)
Very very briefly, let  us first understand, that the "power house" of our SWM is actually based far away in the southern Hemisphere. The main "generating factory" is the Mascarene Highs, between SE of the Madagascar coast and Australia. The SWM is born down South, 4000 kms from the Indian Mainland !
The proper formation of these "High" regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper South East winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular to South West in the Northern Hemisphere. 
And the formation of the "Tibetan High" is another factor. An anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. During the formation stages, there will be thunderstorm activity in the SE parts of Tibet during the months of April and May.

To generate a powerful SW wind, the cross equatorial flow must be strong and gusty. SW winds (ultimately upto 600 mb levels) then are capable of riding on the warmer Arabian Sea waters (Arabian Sea Branch of SWM) and bring cloud masses towards the West Coast of India. 

In the Bay, similar SW winds are generated (Bay branch of SWM), but from SE winds below the equator, just below Sri Lanka.

And to attract the SW winds, again, we need a good proper "seasonal low" to develop in the Sub-Continent. This seasonal low, normally should start forming around Barmer, Rajasthan, by mid April, and at its peak stretch upto Arabia. 

Seasonal low at its peak, in early June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008/1010 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards along the coast and inland.

B)

In this initial stage, we will observe the basic root and foundation, the initial 4 parameters only, and the initial seed of the monsoon. From these parameters, later a few more develop.
1. Cross Equatorial Winds from Southern Hemisphere.
2. Seasonal Low over India/Pakistan.
3. ENSO Status.
4. Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay.

Position today:
1. Cross Equatorial Winds:
The Mascarene Highs are the main "Power House" of the South -West Monsoons. This generates the South -East winds, which after gaining strength, cross the equator and become south west. For a proper High to form in the South Indian Ocean, the cyclone season (Low pressures) should completely die down from that region.

As on date today, the Mascarene Highs is SET TO FORM in the required region.

But things are STARTING TO GET organised  below the Equator.( Wind Chart Below)

Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 
Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has started from below the equator. Weak SW flow below Sri Lanka (in the Southern Hemisphere) can be see, though a bit dis-organised. High pressure in the Arabian Sea has reversed the flow in the Sea.

ITCZ:This Seasonal trough passes from the South  Arabian Sea to Andaman sea after the withdrawal of SWM in Oct. Shifts further south in Dec. Moves North during SWM

Now BELOW the equator.

Today, the winds  North of the Equator revolve round a High in the Arabian Sea (normal).
As the Monsoon strikes the Andaman Sea by mid May, developing wind currents ( Westerly) are required to be observed initially near the Eastern side of the Southern Indian Ocean, and this is weakly forming as of today, Southerly flows are striking Sumatra. Winds are from the East in the Southern Andaman Sea.
Indicator: Normal

2. Seasonal Low: Now, this year, the heating in the sub continent has started ( similar to 2019) from March end , with  Heat Waves in Gujarat, Central India and parts of NW India.. The above normal heating in many parts continues in April.  
On an average, March has registered normal temperature (average day and night) in North, and above normal in Central ad South.

The above normal heating in many parts continues in April. The first 45c 0f this year occurred on 6th April at Barmer & Jaisalmer. 

Last year the first 45c was on 20th April in Bundi, Rajasthan

Below normal rainfall...25 mms received against the normal required of 35.5 mms (-30%)..

These are a points in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the important pre monsoon weather requirement, the seasonal low.

In June, the seasonal low, which stretches to Arabia from India, normally starts forming in the Barmer and adjoining regions in the second week of April. 
Today, the MSL is around 1002/1004 mb in the North Rajasthan/Sindh region. There is a isobar of 1002/1004 mb covering almost the entire Indian region. In the "core seed" area, it is 1000 mb.👇  

The current (Weak) Line of Wind Discontinuity should stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. 

Indicator: +ve

3. ENSO is on way to a El Nino Stage. 
La Niña conditions are present.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean and are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

 Tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with La Niña. 

ENSO-neutral is favored to develop in the next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere summer (62% chance in June-August 2025)

SOI is rising, and is now at +13.2 ....30 days ago It was 7.7. 
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. The last 3 overlapping seasons show towards establishment of a neutral event. ONI latest is -0.4... Just marginal, could get higher in the coming months...But at this stage, it cannot be surely mentioned, that an El Nino stage could fully develop by June, the onset time of our South West Monsoon.( 0.5 - -0.5 is neutral. Above 0.5 is El Nino, and below -0.5 is La Nina).

Indicator: Heading towards ENSO NEUTRAL

4. Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirement is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necessary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.
Progress this year is NORMAL, as the Bay shows a weak Low today.

No forecast of any stronger low as of now. (in 2009,a low formed by the 12th. of April, and later it intensified into cyclone "Bijli", 2010 had no low till 3rd week of april).
Today, we have East winds. The required SW winds may not yet form at least for the next 3/4 days, as a High is likely to form later this week off Odisha Coast.

Indicator: +ve

Summary for arrival Date: Parameter 1). Normal.  Parameter 2). +ve,  Parameter 3). Towards El Neutral, Parameter 4). +ve.
Summary: Tilted towards the normal, as of 8th April. Parameters analysed as of now show normal progress for Monsoon Advance on time.


New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 27th April. There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.
MW-2 on 22nd.April.

http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2012/03/importance-of-monsoon-forecast-for.html....March 19th 2012
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/04/normal-monsoon-forecast-indian-ocean.html