8th June.... Overall SWM Deficiency is - 25%

We see Monsoon progress stalled at Mumbai since 26th May. 

Moved upto Mumbai by 26th May, not as a technical Monsoon current, but temporary advance helped by the Low Pressure AS 1.

Later on 3rd June, aided by W/SW winds upto 700 depth, we got a "feeble" advance of monsoon upto Mumbai.

Now with the system having fizzled out after 29th May, there is no supporting system to revive the Monsoon. Hence, we expected the break and decrease in rainfall all along. {Due to moisture incursion, however there were sporadic sharp spells in Maharashtra,}

No meaningfully revival is seen along the West Coast, as the off shore trough remains dormant  or absent.

Till Friday, 13th June no proper Monsoon Rains , the June types, will be possible along Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka coast, interior Maharashtra and N.I. Karnataka and Gujarat.

Belgavi, Solapur and Adjoining towns will get regular " pop up" thundershowers.

Bangaluru can get the local thundershowers on a few days in the week.

Mumbai: The coming week remains without the Typical " Mumbai Monsoon " rains. Showers in parts of city, not widespread possible.

No meaningfully revival of proper Monsoon rains till Friday 13th June.

Pune: Partly cloudy. with some showers in the parts of city. Properly revival of rains from 12th June only.

Mahabaleshwar rainfall increasing substantially after Friday 13th.

Bharuch : Almost dry, with no meaningfully rains till this weekend, heating up the Weather. Heat upto 42-in 43c expected in Ahmedabad.

We are concentrating on the staggering Monsoon, but the coming week, 9th onwards, can see a major Heat spell in Rajasthan ( > in 45c) and Delhi Punjab around 42-44c. The lows May not go below 30c!

This is in liueof the missed heat waves in May.😉😉

 Vagaries' Views:

IMD AWS  page is not available for public, IMD Rapid Satellite section is also is not available.  When other agencies like ECMWF are fully to open data to foster research IMD has opted to make data inaccessible. What could be the thought process behind these decisions.

It's very important to get real time data  for public during emergencies. Keeping this information confidential/inaccessible makes it illogical! And there was no point of developing this website with this data at all if you can't keep it open for all

What IMD has said earlier:

"Mrityunjay Mohapatra (IMD DG) is spearheading a major expansion of AWS and ARG stations through the WINDS program. This plan will boost station numbers from a few thousand to over 200,000 across India, aiming to deliver timely localised weather data directly to farmers and the general public. The enhanced network is expected to fill existing data gaps and significantly improve forecast accuracy."

 AWS and ARG data now not accessible to general public and farmers

These AWS ARG are only source of weather data for farmers. Why does IMD restrict it to access? 

We don't think the National Institution like IMD needs to worry about private weather enthusiasts or be threatened by them. In fact all private meteorologists take data from IMD stations !

Met department must think twice on this decision.

6th June Evening

Outlook for Weekend 7th-9th 

Mumbai: 2-3 Moderate showers daily. Day warm at 33c and stuffy warm  at 25c. Expect around 30-45 mms cumulative rainfall in 3 days. Distributed in the parts of city. 

Pune: Rainfall with some heavy falls...Moderate to heavy thunder Showers in various parts of city. Days better at 31/32c and nights at 22c. Cumulative rainfall for 3 days around 30-35 mms distributed in city.

Sambhajinagar: Some increase in rainfall from 7th to 9th. Sharp showers can help to start the sowing now, as fields are ready.

Mahabaleshwar: Cool foggy days with occasional rains. Cumulative rains could be around 50-70 mms.

Bharuch/Valsad: A thunder shower on Saturday, Lesser rains on Sunday/Monday.

मुंबई: दररोज २-३ मध्यम स्वरूपाचे सरी. दिवस ३३ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर आणि २५ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर उष्णतेची शक्यता.

शहराच्या काही भागात ३०-४५ मिमी पर्यंत ३ दिवसांत एकत्रित पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता.

पुणे: काही ठिकाणी जोरदार पाऊस... शहराच्या विविध भागात मध्यम ते जोरदार मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडेल.

दिवस ३१/३२ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर आणि रात्री २२ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर चांगला राहतो. शहरात ३०-३५ मिमी पर्यंत ३ दिवस एकत्रित पाऊस पडेल.

संभाजीनगर: ७ ते ९ तारखेपर्यंत पावसात काही वाढ. शेत तयार असल्याने आता पेरणी सुरू करण्यास जोरदार सरी मदत करू शकतात.

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Weather forecast from Tuesday 3rd June to Sunday 8th June -

 "Temporary Monsoon" on a break as mentioned !

Ridge along West Coast causing a lull;

Break monsoon conditions to prevail till at least 9th June. During this period, thundershowers may be possible in interior regions of peninsular India such as south Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, interior Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Mumbai:

Monsoon may gain strength from 7th/8th June

 *Hot and humid days with max around 33C and min around 27C. 

*Partly cloudy skies with some passing showers in some parts of city on 3rd and 4th. 

*Days and nights can get warmer and uncomfortable from 5th June onwards as westerly winds to weaken. 

*Some localized thunderstorms likely from 6th to 8th - higher chances for eastern townships in Thane, Raigad districts and along Western Ghats . 

Pune: *Partly cloudy and warmer days with max around 33-34C on 3rd and 4th June. 

*Few light showers likely. Days may get warmer from 5th June onwards, with chances of thunderstorms from 5th to 8th June.  

Ch. Sambhajinagar: Warmer days with good sunshine. Max temperatures around 35-36C. Chance of rain/thunderstorms in few regions of the district from 4th to 8th June.

छ. संभाजीनगर: चांगला सूर्यप्रकाशासह उष्ण दिवस. कमाल तापमान सुमारे ३५-३६ अंश सेल्सिअस. ४ ते ८ जून दरम्यान जिल्ह्यातील काही भागात मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडण्याची शक

 

 May 2025 ....Excessive rains: Mar/Apr/May...Pre Monsoon season

As on 1st May showed :-16% 

 & As on 31st May :+42%

Heavy Record rainfall totals of May 2025

Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms   (ATR)

Mumbai Scruz,:387 mms

Pune : 240 mms (ATR)

Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( Normal=67 mms)

Matheran : 551 mms (ATR)

Guhagarh: 707 mms

Mormugao : 700 mms

Panjim: 637 mms ( Normal=65 mms)

Dabolim : 680 mms

Mapusa: 693 mms

----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms--

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

Kakkayam Dam, Kerala 1420

Bhagamandala, Karnataka 1270.1 mm

Talakaveri - 1676.8 mm

Kottigehara - 1141.2mm

Hulikal - 1006mm

Courtesy Pradeep John 👆

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Konkan Rainfall 

Courtesy Abhijit Modak 👇👆

Courtesy Abhijit Modak 

RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2025 to 31-5-2025

 

31st May:

Weather wise, an event full May for Maharashtra...specially for Mumbai and Pune.

1. 26th May, An earliest ever Monsoon setting date for Mumbai. The previous earliest was May to 29th in 1956, , . 

However, this year, we announced a " temporary advance". Now, this has never been termed before anytime. Looking at the initial surge , due to the meandering Low pressure system ( AS 1) over Maharashtra, we coined this term " temporary " as we saw very heavy rainfalls in Mumbai and Interior Maharashtra (Pune Region). 

(all records and figures in previous posts).

Showing a image of our 26th blog post :👇

Rainfall Total of May 2025 (with normal in Brackets)👇

Mumbai:

Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms ( 16mms). ...Record for May beating 218 mms in 1918.

Heaviest 27th 24 hrs fall of 162 mms on 27th May broke the previous May Record of 128 mms in 2000.

Mumbai Scruz: 378 mms ( 18 mms)....Scruz record of 388 mms in 2000 hold good ! 

Mumbai Avg. May month Average Max in 2025 is 33.5c...Day/Night Average 30.0c...Normal Average is 30.5c

------------------------------------------------------------

2. Pune:

One of the coolest May on record for Mumbai & Pune....With coldest May Day ever for Pune at 24.8c on 27th...

2025 May Month Max Avg  is 33.2c Normal is 37.3c

Overall day/Night Avg: 25.9c...

May Rains Total:👇

Pune: 240.2 mms ( 30 mms) Record for May beating 182 mm in 1933

Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( 67 mms)

Matheran : 551 mms

Guhagarh: 707 mms

Mormugao : 700 mms

Panjim: 637 mms ( 65 mms)

Dabolim : 680 mms

Mapusa: 693 mms

----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And sure enough, the rains have drastically reduced after 29th.

The days got warmer..as the Monsoon current weakened..

 30th May

Depression BB 2 Location

Well Done IITM..and Prof Mukhopadhyay and his team !

How India’s cutting-edge weather forecast system was built from a lab in Pune

------------------------------------------------------------------------

29th May:

The Depression, BB-2, has crossed into the West Bengal Coast. Will track N/NE.

 

Very heavy rains now will occur in Bangladesh and NE States.

The Axis will move Northwards, As a result>

 30th May - 4th June: 

Mumbai, Pune , Marathwada and Gujarat will see little rainfall. Few Passing showers for Mumbai. 

Hotter days and nights.

Opportunity for completing any pending civil work and water proofing👇

----------------------

Current Winds as on 27th with Monsoon Axis:

..From 29th to 7th June.Rains almost to negligible in Mumbai, Pune, Interior Maharashtra, Sambhajinagar and Bharuch.

Axis and winds expected to shift Northwards ..creating a somewhat hiatus in rains 

 The southwest monsoon made its earliest entry into India this year, hitting Kerala on 24th May and rapidly advancing (temporarily) to Mumbai by 26th May, its earliest arrival.

Fueled by a depression over the Arabian Sea, the monsoon brought record-breaking rainfall to Mumbai.

Colaba recorded 472 mm, surpassing the previous May record from 1918 (280 mms), while Santacruz reported 347 mm.

While rainfall will now reduce, intermittent showers and overcast skies are expected.

A trough off the Konkan coast may keep rains active, but the worst seems to be over for now.

Cool Summer Days in Maharashtra ...27th May..Coldest May Day ever in Pune at 24.8°c 

**Mumbai (CLB) 27th Morning 24 hrs rain: 161.9 mms

May total: 456.5 mms. (Departure from Normal: +446.7 mms)...Previous May Month record 280 mms in 1918.

**Mumbai (SCZ) 27th Morning 24 hrs Rain:  144.2 mms

May Total: 342.0 mms (Departure from Normal +329.6 mms)... Previous May Month record 388 mms in 2000.

**Pune may total as yet on 27th:218 mms... Previous  may record 182 mms in 1933

26TH MAY

MONSOON ENTERS INTO MUMBAI AND PUNE AS A "TEMPORARY" CURRENT.

WE TERM "TEMPORARY" AS EVEN AS RAINFALL IS HEAVY, IT IS NOT STABILISED AS PER CRITERIAS. HENCE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SCALING DOWN IN RAIN INTENESITY FROM 29TH MAY, FOR A WEEK/10 DAYS.

This could well be the earliest Monsoon Date arrival In Mumbai and Pune. 

Previous dearly dates , as per Vagaries' extreme Blog

May 2025 total till date 5.30 pm :  Colaba 435 mms, Santacruz 272 mms
Wettest May ever: Colaba 280 mms ( 1918) , Sanatcruz: 388 mms (2000)

Heaviest 24 hrs fall in May: Colaba 128 mms (2006), This year new record of 144 mms till 5.30 in 9 hrs.

 Santacruz: 191 mms (2000)

26th May ...2025...

Heavy rains lash Central and South Mumbai on 25th Night into 26th Morning....

Rainfall ended 8.30 am Colaba IMD 135 mms, and 105 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am Monday.

 SantaCruz 33 mm and 55 mms from 8.30 to 11.30 am 

Rainfall in last 12 hrs ended 12 noon 26th>.

Vagaries 97 mms

Monsoon Advancing as a Temporary current into Konkan and Mumbai>>.Temporary as we expect a sort of "Lull" or weak rains from 29th over Mumbai>Currently the AS 1 system is playing around Coastal Maharashtra..pulling up a temporary current.

Mumbai: Slowing down and decrease in rains from Tuesday 27th evening...

 25th Night

Monsoon advances further into Karnataka...due to proper Westerlies and 200 jet streams alignment. 

Mumbai may have a not so vigorous onset probably early if westerlies align...but may only be some showers and not a heavy rain type oonset

Outlook for 

26th/27/28/29: Some occasional showers with thunder. 

May be slight reduction in rainfall after 29th.

Monsoon dates for Mumbai 

From Vagaries Extreme Blog 👇

 

 25th May

24 hrs Mumbai rain

Malabar hill 58 mms

Nana chowk & Frosberr53 mm

Haji Ali 52 mms

Worli 51 mms

Vagaries 52 mms

Dadar 48 mms

Nariman Point 42 mms

IMD Colaba 35 mms ( 159 mms total)

IMD Santacruz 27 mm ( 164 mms total)

The irrational movement of the Low continues...its at 1000 hpa.

Its touring Maharashtra now

This is the earliest SW Monsoon Onset over Kerala since 2009 and the second earliest in this 21st century

This is probably the only Arabian Sea depression (Monsoon Onset Vortex) forming during the Monsoon Onset phase in the last 42 years to have tracked east directly into Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra

(Analysis by Vagarian Shreyas.)

 23rd May:

We had mentioned in the previous blog ,that, this system is tricky and we need to update again

Previous blog 👇

...it has tricked us all...every agency world wide !!

AS 1, low pressure,  seems to be crossing into South Konkan, and not gaining more strength. ( Liking for the Alphonso mangoes 🥭).

Vagaries of the Weather!

That's how it is guys!

Following up more.

AS 1 system brought cold days on 23rd in Maharashtra   and All Time May Day Low records set on 23rd May 

Coldest May Day:👇 

Sambhajinagar. 23rd .Max 26.8°c (-12.7c) ...Previous Low record 28.6 in 2016

Mahabaleshwar : 23rd Max 19.2c ( -10.3c) ...Previous low on 22nd May 2025 20.2c !

Kolhapur : 23rd Max 24.8c ( -10.0c)...

Previous record  25.0c in 2010.

---------------------------------------------------------

Second Coldest May on record👇

Pune: 23rd  Max 26.6c ( -10.0c) ...

Holding Record 25.8c in 2000

Satara: 23rd Max 23.2c....

Holding Record 20.1c in 2005

 23rd Night Post:

As per Vagaries, South West Monsoon Advances into Kerala as a feeble current:

As 1 off the South Konkan Coast, is expected to " push into the coast " very marginally. Will track almost along coast till Gujarat Coast , when it may strengthen a bit.

Moderate showers for Mumbai and Pune on 24th/25th.

By 25th night, the system AS 1 could be parellel to Mumbai, when there may be some squally weather and more rainfall.