Deaths from Extreme Weather are Rapidly Declining...

 

Deaths from Extreme Weather are Rapidly Declining...

See Climatology Data Page on Vagaries.

10th November  Minimum temperatures:

Futher gradual drop in temp today:

Min on 10-11-25

Jalgaon 9.5

Nasik 10.8°c

#Amboli 11°

#Lonavala 11.6

Sambhajinagar 11.8

#Mahabaleshwar 12.3

#Nagothane 14.4

#Badlapur 14.8

#Karjat 15

#Matheran 15.4

#Dapoli 15.6

#Awalegaon 15.8

#Manor 16.6

#Sawarde 16.7

#Kalyan & #Panvel 16.8

#Virar & #Kudal 17

#Kosbad 17.4

#Uttan 17.5

#Thane & #NaviMumbai 17.7

#Vengurla 17.8

#Dahanu 18.2

#Mumbai SCZ 19

#Ratnagiri 19

Mumbai W.S.CLUB 20.8

Mumbai Colaba 22

Chandgad, Kolhapur: 10.1°C

 Rahimatpur, Satara: 11.1°C

Pashan, Pune IMD: 12.9°C

Delhi safdarjung: 10.4c, lowest of season

Srinagar: -0.1c, 1st below 0c temperature of season

Meerut: 10.5c, lowest of season

Jewar airport Noida AWS: 11.8c

Compiled by Vagarian Team: Abhijit Modak, AbhishekApte, Pavan,Vineetkumar.

9th November 6.30pm IST temperatures 

V/S

9th November:

Scz IMD 19.6°c. First sub 20°c of season

Colaba 22.4°c

W.S.Club 21.0°c

Badlapur 16.5c

Pune.14.3°c

Ahilyanagar: 12.5°C

Sambhajinagar 12.8°c

Mahabaleshwar 12.8°c

Jalgaon 10.5°c

Jeur 10°c

Lohegaon , Pune Imd 17.6c

Pashan, Pune IMD: 14°C

New Delhi Safdarjung 11.6°c

Indore: 7c, this is lowest minimum temperature recorded there in November since 1975:

Jabalpur: 9.8c, 6.4c below normal

Rewa: 9.9c, 5.3c below normal

Sagar: 11.5c, 6c below normal

Ujjain:10.5c, 4.3c below normal

8th Evening Humidity Drop..

8th Morning..Rains gone, temperatures dropping!

Jalgaon: 10.8c

Nashik: 13.4c

Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar: 14.2c

Ahilyanagar: 14.6c

Mahabaleshwar 13.2c

Mumbai Colaba 23.5c, Scruz 21.2

W.S.Club 22.0c

Pune: 15.9c..Pune Shivajinagar: 15.9c, lowest temperature of season till date.

Indore 7.6° C

Delhi Safdarjung: 11c, 3c below normal & lowest temperature of the season till date.

Jewar airport, Noida: 11.9c

Bhatinda 7.2c

 

A historic, December-like cold wave is forecast to impact the eastern US

See World Weather News Page

The Weekend Outlook:( 7th/8th/9th/10th).

Day/Night Temperature Range.

Dry Sunny Weather in Maharashtra and Gujarat.🌞

Mumbai:🌞

7th:  31°- 21°

8th/9th: 31°- 20°

10th: 31° - 19°

Pune: 🌞

7th/8th: 29°- 17°

9th/10th: 29°- 15°

Mahabaleshwar: 🌞

7th/8th/9th: 25°- 13°

Lonavala: 

7th/8th/9th: 27°- 15°

New Delhi:🌞

7th/8th: 27°- 13°

9th/10th: 25°- 11°

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Hottest in India on 6th: 

Madurai: 37.4°

 4th November .....Night Post

We have ( in all probility) seen the end of the prolonged rainy season for Mumbai and Interior Maharshtra...(by 5th as posted on 2nd Nov)

Mumbai/Pune: Drier weather from 5th, and night temperatures can drop by 3/4°C from this weekend.😁

But not before sprinkling light rains in parts of Mumbai on 4th...See Chart👇  

Annual in 2025 as on date:  2978 mms (117") in Colaba and 3597 mms ( 141") in Santacruz,Pune 1174 mms (46") and in Panaji 3682 mms (144") and Ratnagiri saw 4218 mms (166")...Figures of 2025 till date.

Mumbai Rainfall map of 4th ...Green marks indicate upto 5 mms of rainfall 

Colaba IMD measured 4 mms.

The credit for the change of winds and end to rains goes to this Western disturbance👆

NW Winds along Konkan 

-----------------------

Snowfall Started from W.D.

3rd November details of Extreme Temperatures 

India: 

Hottest Day: Madurai: 37.6°c

Coldest Day : Leh 12.4°c

Coldest Night: Nubra( Ladakh): -1.6°c

Warmest Night : Nellore 28.2°c

Maharashtra:

Hottest: Amravati 34.2°c

Coldest: Mahabaleshwar:16.9°c

World Extremes 

 2nd November Image 👇

Mumbai: Unseasonal rains have extended into November, and constant support from a weak system has made this rainy season an extended one.

Due to prevailing SW winds, (Above Image) {and West Coast} Likely to get moderate rainfall upto 5th/6th November..

Rains will also continue in Madhya Maharastra  (Pune|Jalgaon), Marathwada (Aurangabad) till 5th\6th.November.

Rainfall as on 2nd Morning:

Kokan & Goa:Savarde-arg (dist Ratnagiri) 10, Ratnagiri - Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 8, Sawantwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 7, Sangameshwar Devrukh (dist Ratnagiri) 6, Chiplun (dist Ratnagiri) 6, Lanja (dist Ratnagiri) 5, Guhagarh (dist Ratnagiri) 4, Rameshwar_agri (dist Sindhudurg) 3, Harnai Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 3, Vaibhavwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 3, Devgad (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Wakwali_agri (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Dapoli_agri (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Kudal (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Ponda (dist North Goa) 2, Dodamarg (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Mandangad (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Rajapur (dist Ratnagiri) 2, Malvan (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Roha (dist Raigad) 2, Mulde - Aws (dist Sindhudurg) 2, Sudhagad Pali (dist Raigad) 2, 

Madhya Maharastra:Dahigaon - Fmo (dist Jalgaon) 9, Pachora (dist Jalgaon) 6, Gaganbawada (dist Kolhapur) 4, Yaval (dist Jalgaon) 3, Mahabaleshwar- Imd Obsy (dist Satara) 3, Jamkhed (dist Ahilyanagar) 3, Jamner (dist Jalgaon) 3, Akkalkuwa (dist Nandurbar) 2, 

Marathwada: Gangakhed (dist Parbhani) 1, Mantha (dist Jalna) 1, Khultabad (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar) 1, Soegaon (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar) 1, Gangapur (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar)

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Upcoming WD, although not that strong in terms of widespread rain/snow, will still bring decent precipitation to J&K, Ladakh and HP...parts of Punjab and higher ranges of Uttarakhand can also get rain/snow

Cold air behind this WD, will signal winter onset for Northern regions

Punjab/NCR min can go down below 13°C after 5th and maybe in single digits in open areas after 7th November.

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Negative IOD" refers to a negative phase of the {Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)}, a climate pattern where the western Indian Ocean is cooler than average and the eastern Indian Ocean is warmer than average.

This -Ve iod also partially explains why Arabian Sea system not able to intensify to cyclone

IOD also can significantly impact winter temps across maharaahtra and needs detailed research.

Dr.Vineet Kumar

 31st October:

October 2025 Month's Rainfall:

Place /Oct25 /Normal  /

*Record   /2025 Annual (In mms) 

CLB.      168.    082.        

*507(1917).    2934

SCZ.       076.    091.       

*377(1998).    3566

PUNE     067.   105.       

 *440(1892).   1174

R'GIRI    260.    124.       

*439(1938).   4078

MWAR.  235.    140.       

*956(1938).   6925

Abd         104.    077       

*415(1990).    0919

PNJI.       459.    146.      

*391(2006).    3647

 30th October Night:

AS - 5: Our Vagarian Gaurav Raninga points out that this could possibly be the longest surviving (in days over Sea), if it enters its 11th day on 31st October.

We have the original post forecast as on 19th October 

Finally  after several permutations,  AS 5, tracks on a predicted path..  Current location 👇

Mumbai: Moderate to light showers to persist in Mumbai till 2nd November. 

Pune/Sambhajinagar: Light Rains till 31st October.Nights getting cooler at 17°c.

Heavy rains expected from 31st October to 3rd November in Saurashtra and Gujarat Region including Bharuch. N

-----------------------------------------------------------

[ Old systems: 

Vagarian Shitij informs:In 1894 also a depression stayed for 10 days in Arabian sea (from 17th Oct to 26th Oct)

Recently,Depression - Cyclone, show 2021 cyclone as surviving for 7 days 

Original Vagaries post of 14th May] 2021.

 29th Night Post:

Night Position Of the Two systems:

Outlook: AS 5 likely to recurve from above position and proceed N/NE (red line). Likely to weaken from Depression to Well Marked Low, (around 1003 mb).

Rainfall likely in North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat Region, South Coastal Gujarat and Southern parts of Saurashtra till 2nd November.

Heavier rainfall in Gujarat Region (Baroda, Bharuch expect around 80 mms on 31st Oct and 1st Nov) expected later on 31st/1st.

Remanants of MONTHA pouring deluge rains in Telengana.( See Rainfall amounts below) Rainfall to move into Vidharbh and Marathwada. 

Mumbai: After a dry day on Wednessday 29th, Rains expected in the night and as the system moves N/NE, Mumbai can expect moderate rainfall to continue 30th Oct to 2nd Nov. Moderate to rather heavy rainfall in patches.

Days warm around 33/34°c. 

Pune: Expected light rains or drizzles for 2 more days, 30th/31st. Expected to clear after 1st with nights getting cooler.(around 17/18°c.

MONTHA remnant pouring deluge rains in Telengana...👇

 29th October...2.30 pm ..Locations 

 

8th Night Post:

AS-5 Position...almost stationary

Rainfall from AS 5 on 28th

Mumbai Malabar Hill 15 mms

Colaba 14 mms ,DWard 14 mms

Cyclone MONTHA

27th October 

1.Cyclonic Storm Montha over the Bay   Bay is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday, 28 October.

Landfall is currently indicated between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, during the evening or night.

Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 90–100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph.

2. Depression over East Central Arabian Sea

The Depression over the East Central Arabian Sea moved north-northeastwards at about 20 kmph during the past 6 hours and lay centered  near Latitude 16.1°N and Longitude 66.8°E.

Depression Rainfall today 27th in Gujarat 

 Mumbai Received 5 Calendar Months of Rainy Season in 2025 (till date)...26th May - 26th Oct.

                     

Colaba: mms

May: 503

June-Sept: 2263

October:     142 

Total: 2908 mms, 115"

----------------------------------

Scruz: mms

May: 378

June-sept: 3112

October: 63 

Total; 3553 mms, 140"                       

 Unseasonal Showers came as we waited ...26th October 

Mumbai #Mumbai #MMR #Rain till 11pm on 7-5-25

#Virar 70 mm

#MiraRd 65

#Palghar 60

#Dahisar 58

#Thane 51

#Koparkhairane 45

#Airoli 42

#Badlapur 38

#Manor 35

#SCZ 29

#Vashi, #NaviMumbai 39 mm

#Mulund 36

#Powai 35

#Diva 34

#Versova 32

#Bhandup & #Digha 32

#Malvani 28

#Matheran 27

#Vandre & #Shiv 25

#Palava 23

#MalabarHill & #Chembur 22

#CSMT & #Colaba 21

#Panvel & #Alibaug 16

#Ulhasnagar 13

#Ambernath 11

compiled by Vag Abhijit 

And Gujarat...too much !

27th Morning 👇👇

Mumbai rain in mms from 6am - 6pm Sunday 26th

Memon Wada 35

MCGM 30

Goregaon, Malad,VileParle 21

Borivali 23

WSC 28 

Vasai 20

----—---—-----------------------------------------------

26th October...Afternoon Post.

2 depressions seen on either side of Indian Peninsula.

Arabian Sea system causing rains and cloudiness in the outer circle shown.

System was estimated in Vagaries to persist and bring rain till October 30th.

Mumbai/Pune:

Persisting ( till 30th October) evening thunder showers in parts of city in the evenings.

We mention " parts" as being unseasonal, the showers' distribution will be patchy and in localized areas. 

Mumbai will be hot with stuffy nights. Range 35°-25°.

Pune will be in the 31°- 20° range.

So no indications of Major " winter" temperature drops in October. 

Gujarat: Saurashtra  and South Gujarat will get moderate to fairly heavy rain from 26th - 30th. There will be patches of 50- 80 mms / day on some days in Saurashtra. 

Bharuch: Rains,  moderately heavy till 29th October. 

Saturday Evening 

 

 

 24th Post 

Back to back lows forming.

BB-16 formed off TN coast, moved inland and now dissipated. 

New low BB-17 forming in south BoB...will intensify

AS-5 system is now a depression in Arabian Sea and moving NNE. Likely to bring rains/TS across west coast.

Pune Rainfall  🌨 🌨

DATE 23-10-2025

Time: 22:00 PM 

Ambegaon Katraj, Pune = 16 mm

Khadakwasla = 18.4 mm

Warje, Pune = 17 mm

Garware, Deccan Pune = 17 mm 

Aashay Measurements Pvt Limited

          Weather Division

 22nd Night:

The Depression in the Arabian Sea (See maps) is going into a phase of increasing " Total Precipitable Water" region.

Now expected to strengthen and move North/NW.

Rainfall and Thunder storm activity to hence continue along the West Coast and parts of Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Kokan, Interior Madhya Maharashtra,and Marathwada.

Maharashtra : Kokan, Madhya Maharashtra will get Thundershowers on almost daily afternoon basis till 30th October. 

Marathwada will get afternoon Thundershowers on daily basis from 23rd - 26th October.

Mumbai & Pune : Again, even after Diwali, Rains will persist till October end.

Almost on daily basis, city will see thundery developments towards late afternoon/evening till 30th October. Parts, many areas, will get the Thundershowers of varying intensity. 

We can expect particularly heavier and increase rains on 24th/25th October. Mumbai and Outer townships will see heavier showers.

Sambhajinagar: Light to moderate Afternoon/ Evening thunderstorms till 26th October. 

Extreme care for the cover of harvested crop. 

Jalgaon : Light to moderate thundershowers till 30th. Particularly heavy rains on 25th. 

Gujarat : As the Depression moves N/NW, we can expect rainfall to commence in South Gujarat and Souther Coast of Saurashtra on 25th - 27th.

Light to moderate rains in Bharuch, Surat and Valsad. ( 15-35 mms on 25th/26th).

Diwali Rains in Mumbai on 21st..

*Top rainfall amounts in Mumbai BMC*

Goregaon: 24.4 mm

Vikroli West: 22 mm

S Ward Office Bhandup: 21.32 mm

Kala Killa Mun. Sch Dharavi: 21 mm

Mithagar Mun. School, Mulund: 20 mm

Pratiksha Nagar Mun. School, Sion: 19 mm

Compiled by Vag Tejas

Konkan including MMR Rainfall till 11.30 pm from Thunderstorm on Laxmi Pujan day today on 21-10-25

Badlapur 118 mm

Dolwahal 55

Ambernath 51

Ulhasnagar 48

Kalyan 42

Pawane 39

Nerul 35

Bhatsa 34

Belapur 31

Mahape & Suryamal 29

Panvel & Ambivli 28

Deonar & Airoli 25

Goregaon & Shelavali 24

Vashi 23

Vikhroli 22

Suksale 21

Khandala 20

Savarkhand 18

Powai 16

Marol 15

Dombivli 14

Dadar, Bhandup & Mulund 11

Thane & #lMumbra 10

Manor 8

Mumbai SCZ 7

WSC 4  

Compiled by Vag Abhijit.