Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Vagaries analysis indicate withdrawal of SWM completely from Sindh, Kutch, Central Rajasthan and Punjab.
Very clearly depicted in the current OLR image.
Totally indicative of withdrawal conditions from these regions, the withdrawal stage is all set to cover rest of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Northern Gujarat in the next 2 days. A fast forming La-Nina may/can push for a speedy SWM retreat.
Due to the adverse conditions, we cannot expect any rains in this week in the above regions which have seen/will see SWM retreat soon.
Days have started heating up in the Rajasthan region, with 36c as the highest, but will rise more.Delhi is expected to touch 36c soon.
Across the border, Sibbi in sindh was 39c. Karachi is still maintaining its day at 33c.
See some rainfall again increasing nominally from Thursday for Kathmandu, as BB-8 advances North.
In the eastern front, BB-7 is gone and BB-8 has formed South of Kolkatta. At 1000 mb, its moderate at this stage, and would soon track NNE into W.Bengal by the 22nd/23rd. By 24th, it could move into Bangladesh. The anti cyclone and "dry" resistence pushes it Northwards.
Anyway, we can expect heavy precipitation in W.Bengal, Sikkim and parts of Jharkhand on Wednesday. Kolkata will again get good rainfall next 2 days.
Thundershowers are expected in Maharashtra this week. A formative easterly trough can bring some rains to coastal A.P./ T.N. on Wednesday/Thursday. Chennai could see some showers. Do not see any meanigful rains in interior Karnataka this week.
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October 5th.. Dussehra wishes to all Vagaries Readers It now seems we may have to neglect the weak BB 14 and concentrate on this new Low....