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Thursday, April 29, 2021

 LWD.. Thursday 29th evening



Posted 29th Afternoon:

The LWD persists today from N.I. Karnatak thru to Kerala...So thunder showers will continue from 29th-4th May...Pre Monsoon showers.

As the LWD stretches into Interior Mah, we see thunder showers with hail again in Madhya Mah and Vidharbh from 30th..gradually increasing from 1st May....Pre Monsoon Showers.

*Real feel of any temperature in their forecast means how the temperature will feel to your body. Basically, temperatures that thermometers record and the that our body feels can be different under wind/humidity/cloud conditions etc.

Mumbai: Hot, Sultry, pre monsoon weather...Real Feel* Temperature* around 39c. 

Pune: Warm for 2 days, around 36/37c, with Real Feel* at 38c. But thunder showers again from 30th..and increasing from 1st -4th May. Pre Monsoon showers. Cool during rains.

Mahableshwar: Thunder showers likely in afternoon/night from 30th-4th May. Day temperature around 32c but nights around 18/19c.

Surat: Warm days , 37c. Light rains expected on 2nd May.

Bharuch: Hot, with warm winds. 41c...Some rains expected on 2nd May.

New Delhi: Hot, at 42c with warm winds. Thunder shower expected only on 3rd/4th May.

Jabalpur: Temperatures around 41c, next 3 days..Some rains expected on 2nd/3rd May.

From 1st May - 4th May, we see thundershowers into South Chattisgarh, adjoining M.P, and Odisha...with gusty winds.


Monsoon Arrival seems early at Kerala...seems..

More in next Monsoon Watch about arrival date on 2nd May.

.

Monday, April 26, 2021

 


Thunder clouds seen on 26th evening in South Maharashtra and adjoining areas



Sunday, April 25, 2021

Posted 25th April Afternoon:

(Next 4 days estimate worked with Vagarian Shreyas)

Rains again expected in Interior Maharashtra and  Interior Karnatak.

The Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD) stretching from north interior Karnataka till southern peninsular India upto Kerala - Tamil Nadu border continues to bring scattered thundershowers. Bangalore got good rains in the last few days. 
Accumulated rainfall of Bangalore is 118 mms from 1st March (Pre Monsoon period) that is 74 mms above normal.

LWD likely to extend north into Madhya Maharashtra region and western Ghats of Maharashtra. Pre-Monsoon 
Thundershowers with hail in some regions, likely in next 2-4 days  ( 26th onwards) over south Madhya Maharashtra (Pune, Satara, Kolhapur, Sangli) and parts of Marathwada ( Nanded, Aurangabad)  and Vidarbha. 
A further northward extension of LWD may draw in more moisture from the Arabian Sea and bring some thundery development over parts of Pune and Nashik districts. Thunderstorms forming over Ghats may give some rain in interior Konkan region and remnants may bring drizzle/light rain along south Konkan coast.

Mumbai: Next 4 days: Partly cloudy with hot and sweaty  conditions. stuffy nights.
With possibility of Thunder Cells Clouds drifting westwards  towards Mumbai, Bleak chance of a lightening shower in some parts on 27th/28th. Only in parts of city.
Eastern outer townships ( Ulhasnagar, Badlapur, Karjat, Panvel) can receive lightening showers.
But this will increase the real feel temperature which may go to around 40c (due to higher humidity).

Pune: Next 4 days partly cloudy cumulus developments towards afternoon. Chances of thundershowers on 26th/27th .
Max temperature will be around 37/38c, but "during rain" temperature will drop to 20/21c.

Goa:: Thunder Showers chances in interiors. Possibility pf thunder clouds drifting towards coast (Panaji) on 27t/28th. Resulting in showers in parts.

Next 3/4 days North Interior Karnatak will get thundershowers in Belgaum, Hubli, Dharwar and Gulbarga regions..

Local thundery developments possible in spots in Saurashtra and Eastern Gujarat.
Bharuch will be extremely hot at 42/43c.

Saturday, April 24, 2021

Friday, April 23, 2021


 
Centre Picture (Top) is Min temps and Centre (Bottom) is Departure from Normal of Min temps.of 23rd Morning.
Circled the region to show departure of Min..What effect on seasonal Low now ? ..or Nothing ?




Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Monsoon Watch- 2 (Abridged)...20th April 2021

1. Cross Equatorial Flow:



 

Indicator: Normal.

2. Seasonal Low

Core between 1006/1008 mb...Bit slow..but no problem..As mentioned, by end May/early June it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.
The Line of Wind Discontinuity should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 
Weak now today.

Indicator: Normal.

3. ENSO;
he El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, and with no sign of El Niño or La Niña developing, the ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE.
As explained before..La Nada.

Indicator: Neutral.

4. Bay Low:
4. The Bay has yet to host a pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. 
Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. 

No Low seen till Month End.
Indicator: _ve

Overall Summery: 3parametres Normal/Ok...1 Negative.

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 
Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 

 


Thursday, April 15, 2021

Posted 15th Morning:

Low Minimum temperatures  (Below Normal) recorded in Maharshtra,  on 15th Morning...To achieve good Monsoon April parameters, this Trend should not persist for more than 2 days.

Pune 17.1c, Mahableshwar  & Nasik  17.3c, , Satara 18.3c, Jalgaon & Jeur 19.0c, Malegaon 19.6c.

Aurangabad 18.7c ,  Parbhani 20.5c.

Vidharbh Temperatures, ver low by regional standards, as this region is normally the hottest....Wasim 18.2c, Amravati 18.5c, Buldana 20.2c, Wardha 20.6c, Nahpur 22.0c. 

(M.P.): Seoni 17.6c, Betul 18.7c, Indore 20.8c, 

(Gujarat) :Valsad 18.0c, Keshod 19.3c

(Telengana): Medak 16.8c (-6c), Mahabub nagar 18.4c (-7c)

Monday, April 12, 2021

 Posted 12th night

The Line of Wind Discontinuity continues to bring rains to Madhya Mah., coffee showers to Coorg and heavy showers to Goa & Kerala. 

Vagaries, had mentioned earlier of pre monsoon showers to commence from mid April. 

Forecast 13th -14th April ( contribution input by Vagarian Shreyas Dhavale.) 

Pre monsoon Thundershowers across Madhya Maharashtra (#Pune, #Satara, #Kolhapur, #Ahmednagar, #Solapur, #Sangli)

Marathwada (#Aurangabad, #Jalna, #Beed)

Vidarbha (#Nagpur & bordering districts) 

south konkan (#Ratnagiri, #Sindhudurg).

 Forecast for 13-14 April -  

#Goa, coastal & plateau regions of #Karnataka and most of #Kerala likely to get Thundershowers.

#Bangalore and interior #TamilNadu may witness a rainy second half of the week.

Mumbai: Stuffy, humid and sweaty. 

Cloudy with light drizzle in some parts by evenings. 

Posted on Monday evening 12th April, 2021

Pune district thunderstorm rainfall data from 8:30am-8:30pm on 12/04/2021:-


1.Magarpatta:43.5mm

2.Gunjawane:27mm

3.Pashan:20mm

4.Shivajinagar:19mm

5.Lavasa:17mm

6.Wadgaon Sheri:16.5mm

7.Nira Deoghar:14mm

8.Davdi(Mulshi):12mm

9.NDA:11mm

10.Panshet(Bhalwadi):10mm

11.Pawana:8mm

12.Rajgurunagar:4.5mm

13.Chinchwad:1.5mm

Saturday, April 10, 2021

 Monsoon Watch - 1... 2021...10th April 2021 (Abridged)


These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.


The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries. 


The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.

And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments. 

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting its share of 2021 monsoon rains !


This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.


 Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS SITUATION.


It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.


Initially, in the first few parts, of this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date. 

We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet. 

There are 2 parts to this article:

A)-This is the Ideal Conditions  During SWM Onset in Early June. 

and 

B)below indicates the actual situation of the parameters situation today ( 10th April).

A)

Very very briefly, let  us first understand, that the "power house" of our SWM is actually based far away in the southern Hemisphere. The main "generating factory" is the Mascarene Highs, between SE of the Madagascar coast and Australia. The SWM is born down South, 4000 kms from the Indian Mainland !
The proper formation of these "High" regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper South East winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular to South West in the Northern Hemisphere. 
And the formation of the "Tibetan High" is another factor. An anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. During the formation stages, there will be thunderstorm activity in the SE parts of Tibet during the months of April and May.

To generate a powerful SW wind, the cross equatorial flow must be strong and gusty. SW winds (ultimately upto 600 mb levels) then are capable of riding on the warmer Arabian Sea waters (Arabian Sea Branch of SWM) and bring cloud masses towards the West Coast of India. In the Bay, similar SW winds are generated (Bay branch of SWM), but from SE winds below the equator, just below Sri Lanka.


And to attract the SW winds, again, we need a good proper "seasonal low" to develop in the Sub-Continent. This seasonal low, normally should start forming around Barmer, Rajasthan, by mid April, and at its peak stretch upto Arabia. Seasonal low at its peak, in early June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008/1010 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards along the coast and inland.


B)-In this initial stage, we will observe the basic root and foundation, the initial 4 parameters only, and the initial seed of the monsoon. From these parameters, later a few more develop.

1. Cross Equatorial Winds from Southern Hemisphere. -ve



2. Seasonal Low over India/Pakistan. :Indicator: Normal for this time.

1006/1008 mb



March weather (Guiding the Low)



The current Line of Wind Discontinuity from Vidharbh to Interior T.N. should stabilise from around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula. This enhances the speed of the Seasonal Low formation. Normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. 


3. ENSO Status.: Weakening La Nina and in La Nada state Now.

Indicator: Normal Monsoon Expected ,except West Coast could  be above normal.

4. Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay.

Not expected till 20th April.

Summary: Tilted towards the normal, as of 10th April. Parameters analysed as of now show normal progress for Monsoon Advance on time.


New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 29th April. There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.

MW-2 on 22nd.April.




Friday, April 09, 2021

 Sprites..Jellyfish sprites...See latest sighting

Weather Knowledge Page

Light to Moderate Weekend Rainfall likely on 10th/11th in 

Vidharbh, East M.P ( Jabalpur), Chattisgarh and adjoining Odisha.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy this weekend and Humid. Day around 33/34c, night around 23/24c.

Pune weekend will be partly cloudy ,with cumulus (CB) developments. Hot at 36/37c.

Cooler Nights in Haryana, Delhi and pars of Punjab on 9th Morning.

Delhi S'Jung saw a sudden drop on 9th to a low of 14.3c (-5c). Lodhi Gardens in Delhi recorded a low of 14.0c (-5c).

Haryana: Hissar 13.8c (-5c), Karnal 12.4c (-5c)

Punjab: Amritsar 12.6c, Kapurthala: 10.4c.

Chandigarh also saw a low of 14.4c (-3c)

Thursday, April 08, 2021

Posted 8th April Afternoon:

La Nina waning...The Coming of "La Nada*"...( Young enthusiastic Meteorologists please note this phenomena)

This winter has been dominated by La Nina. a period of below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

But there is major news on the La Nina front.   La Nina is now collapsing and should be history in a few months.

To show this, let's start by looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly (difference from normal) for the central tropical Pacific,  an area called the Nino 3.4 region (see map).



The cold temperature anomaly has weakened considerably, down to about .6C.   La Nina has weakened.  

In fact, if it gets much lower (less than .5C below normal) then we would call it a neutral or normal period.

In early February there was substantial cold water in the upper portions of the Pacific, with warm water limited to the western portion of the ocean.  But by the end of March, almost all the cold water was gone and warm water has surged eastward below the surface about three-quarters of the way across the Pacific.  As this warm water mixes to the surface, La Nina will rapidly become history.

 Projections  (Forecasts) are that the central Pacific sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area will warm, resulting in a transition to Neutral or La Nada* conditions.  We must note that such forecasts are not reliable in spring

*Between the hot El Niño and the cool La Niña lies La Nada, the nothing, normal water temperatures.

In between these two types of weather is La Nada: “The Nothing”. 

Excerpts from Cliff Mass weather Blog

Readers: Please give your views on how these rapid changes will affect our Monsoon.

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Max Temperatures on 7th:


Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Important :

Since the last 12 Months, things and circumstances have been different, and the "Normal" has changed completely to a "New Normal". Life styles have changed, and the methodology of working different. We are not able to move about freely without the tension of catching the virus. 

Hope all Vagaries' readers are safe and keeping well. From my side, all is ok. I thank everyone for their concern and want all to take care.

With utmost disappointment and reluctance, i announce that our most popular and much awaited annual series, "Monsoon Watch" will not be published this year in its usual format. This is only for this year. 

Only a truncated form, very brief, with the Indicators only and a few maps, will be put up.

The details and exhaustive write up and study of each indicative parameter will be missing. 

I am thankful to the Vagarians who had helped me in framing the past Monsoon Watch Series.

Of-course, a study will be done and researched by me, but the detailed explanation will not be put up.

I am sorry to disappoint and feel that a big important event of Vagaries will be absent this year.

I thank all our readers for their patronage and loyalty to Vagaries, and hope their trust remains undeterred.

Monday, April 05, 2021

Posted 5th April afternoon;

Western Disturbance bring showers in Kashmir, Ladakh, H.P, & Uttarakhand.

But the plains and Peninsula India remain hot, with Heat Waves in some Regions.


Particularly, the day will be hot on Wednesday 7th,as seen from the forecast Map for 7th (Below). 

Central India goes under the Heat, with the regions> 40c ( Central M.P, Gujarat and North Konkan)  and > 43c ( Parts of  East Gujarat , North Mah. and North Konkan).

Bharuch will be very Hot at 42/43c.

Parts of East Gujarat & North Konkan may be between 40-43c on 7th. Badlapur, Panvel ,Karjat may be between 42-44c.

Jabalpur & Indore will touch 40/41c on 7th. 

On 7th, Mumbai will be warm and humid at 35c, and Pune hot at 38c.




Sunday, April 04, 2021

 On Saturday 3rd April, 

Hottest place in India were Chandrapur & Bhramapuri (Vidharbh) at 43.4c.

Hottest in Pakistan was Karachi AP on the same day at 43,6c ! 



Saturday, April 03, 2021

 Posted 3rd April:

Heat Wave and Hot conditions in  Vidharbh, Telengana, A.P. & Tamil Nadu on 2nd April:

Some extreme temperatures in T.N.:

Vellore 43.4c, Thiruthani 42.5c, Salem 42.4c, Tiruchirapalli &Madurai AP 42.3c, Chennai AP 41.8c, Chennai (Nunga) 41.2c, Dharmapri, Nammakal,  & Madurai  41.0c, Puducherry 37.8c, Coimbatore AP 36.9c.

The automatic weather stations in West Tambaram, Meenambakkam and Madhavaram also registered temperatures of 41.8c, 41.3c and 41.1c

 Pradeep John said the spike in mercury was due to hot winds blowing from the Cuddapah, Rayalseema and Anantapur belt. Besides, strong offshore winds are delaying the sea breeze coming into coastal areas like Chennai resulting in increased heating time.





Friday, April 02, 2021

 

Vagaries Awarded  and improves Rank to 35th Position  of Best Weather Blogs in the World

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BB-1...A depression Now
BB-1...A depression Now.BB


Thursday, April 01, 2021

 A Picture Worth Sharing


: Auroras over Iceland's Geldingadalur volcano on March 24, 2021.

Mumbai...This day.. That Day Heat Wave and Heat Record for Mumbai Santa Cruz: Friday 16th October 2015 turned out to the Hottest October day...