Mumbai Current Conditions at 6.30 p.m.on 31st. Dec:
Delhi Current Conditions, 6.30 p.m. on 31st. Dec:
vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
The accumulated actual rainfall map of the 22nd. has been attached to show the (vagaries) forecasted W.D, somewhat weak and feeble, as IMD has put it.
It shows some precipitation in the Ladakh region and some rains in the western
Rain/snow has also trickled into Northern and Central H.P. and extreme western
The W.D. is expected to move away eastwards, and weaken or fizzle out.
The Cold Wave forecast map put up by Vagaries for 22/23/24 seems to “happening”.
The severe cold wave regions shown in the projection are the extreme frigid zone of Kashmir, where Leh has recorded -18c and Skardu in
The “mild cold wave” predicted region of N.India plains, has seen
In the Central India region, M.P.too was cold, with
In the Southern interiors, an unusual mild cold wave has come as a pleasant though uncomfortable surprise. Chintapalli in A.P. recorded 5.3c, and
These areas can expect the cold to continue for another couple of days.
Vagaries will put up a temperature forecast map after 24th. When, we may see the nights getting warmer by 2/3c.
Precipitation forecast is : All
I see no W.D. or system on the horizon for another 5 days at least.
As an after effect of the W.D,
Here too, the cold wave should retreat by the 24th. When the night temperatures will be up by around 2/3c, from Islamabd to
With light precipitation in the extreme west, as shown in the map, the W.D. effect for
P.S. I had a comment requesting for more frequent updates. Will surely try to do so. But please note, the Internationa Page, Mumbai Weather and Space News are also very regularly updated. Sometimes, one may tend to overlook these pages.
On moving away, the recent W.D. has sent a mild cold wave into NW and parts of
Keylong: -6c and Kalpa :-4.5c
Pune: 7.3c (7c)
M’Shwar: 10c (10c)
Ahamdabad; 10.9c (9c)
Bhuj: 12c (5c) – Surprisingly not cold here.
Mumbai: Colaba 19c (18c), S'Cruz: 14c (15c).
Cold Wave should be around for 1 more day in these regions.Expected to abate from Tuesday.
Another mild W.D. could be expected to cover the J.K./Himachal regions from Tuesday.
Minimums from the South:
Bijapur: 6c, Kodaikanal: 9c.
The Easterlty Wave is expected to bring some rains from Monday to the T.N. coastal areas.
A mild cold wave is also in force in the NE regions.
Kohima: 5c, below normal by 5c, Imphal: 6c and Cherrapunji : 7c.
The long running poll on Vagaries is now due for change. After a patient wait for Mumbai to touch its all time record, 50% of the votes proved right. While 41% were hopeful of Mumbai receiving its highest ever rains for the year.
Now, I want a honest and frank opinion on the new poll.
On Friday, December 17, 2010, the W.D. forecasted (only) by Vagaries was precipitating rain/snow in Central and eastern
Snow was falling on Friday in Ladakh and
W.D. is not expected to remain beyond Saturday.
Meanwhile, an Easterly wave is expected to bring some precipitation to the T.N. coast from Tuesday for a couple of days.
Otherwise, not much is seen on the precipitation front in the sub-continent till Wednesday, 22nd. December.
Vagries precipitation/Temperature forecast will be updated on the 18th. for the next 3 days.(Mumbai Forecast updated today).
Darbuk (Ladakh): -23c, Leh: -13c, Kargil: -10c,
Lowest in Mah. : Wardha: 4.8c,
Across the border in
A BIG THANK YOU...
With a lot of support and feeback from readers, the Vagaries' counter has crossed the 50,000 mark !
Constant interaction with friends and readers, has helped me in bringing Vagaries to its present international status.
My theory has always been to put in facts by explaining my estimates and forecasts. Each prediction has been, as far as possible, supported by charts. Its always prudent for a meteorologist to give reasoning and not just prophesise. Things may eventually fall in place or go either way. Like I said, I am a meteorologist, not a magician.
Vagaries has constantly kept you updated with extreme records and events. When we started our 'Interactive' page, the input from you was very helpful, and a variety of information and pictures became possible.
Special thanks from Vagaries to: Akshay (Nagpur), Ananth, Ashokbhai (Rajkot), Cmdr. Potey (Mumbai), emkay (Panvel), Jim (Accuweather), Junaid (Panvel), Mark Vogan (Scotland), Max, Sanjay (Mumbai), Shiraz (Mahabaleshwar), svt, Tyrone (Karachi) and a host of other "anonymous" readers who have supported and guided Vagaries regularly with very valuable inputs.
A new tab, "Vagaries' Forecast", has been added to the blog. Its an attempt to give a pictorial forecast of rainfall and temperature. It should save the effort of detailed writing (and reading) giving an 'at-a-glance" view.
Please note, this will be updated regularly,as soon as the previous forecast gets invalid, and its update will not be reminded on the Home Page.
Also, new links have been added to the right of the blog. Below the "Profile". 1. IMD image. 2. Colour Image from NRL and 3.Latest Rainfall accumulation from IMD.In reality, this map shows the actual rainfall.
This should help readers to view images and rainfalls directly.
Number of Districts with above normal rainfall : 504 Number of Districts with below normal rainfall : 209 ...