Mumbai Page updated with July amounts and Sunday rain figures.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Friday, July 29, 2011
See Mumbai page for Rainfall
Lowest rainfall in Vid is at Wardha, which has measured up only 265 mms till 29th, 178 mms below normal.That is -41%.
Absence of direct systems from the bay could be the reason for deficient rains in Vidharbh.
Mumbai/Pune forecast for Saturday valid as put up yesterday.
New forecast for Sunday onwards will be put up tomorrow. Performance of Monsoon up to July end will be up on Sunday.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Reproducing the scene of 25th for convienance: "
-"2. In case of MJO showing no weakness and remains active (at least till this coming week):
a) Monsoon axis remains along current line, with normal precipitation along its length. West coast trough can fluctuate from weak to strong. Southern Sindh coast showers may linger along coast for a couple of days into the week. Western Nepal continues to get rainfall.
b) An UAC can form in the bay and move inland towards the end of the week (27th/28th).
c) Another weaker UAC, seen forming in the in the southern Bay, can form and bring some precipitation into T.N."
And where are we vis-a-vis this projected today ?
a) Monsoon axis is back very dutifully in line again, west coast trough showing its moods, flucuating between yes and no. Southern Pakistan coastal rainfall has diminished though.
Nepal rains continue, with an increase expected on Friday, specially in the Kathmandu (central) region.
b) UAC has formed in the SW Bay, and remains off the coast as on Thursday morning. Do not think another UAC will form (as anticipated), but the current one can become a low (BB5) and move inland in another two days.
As anticipated, rainfall along the U.P./Delhi corridor has increased, with Delhi measuring 58 mms of rain in 24 hrs. Some heavier rainfall spots were also recorded in U.P.
Monsoon rains along the axis was good, in Rajasthan Jodhpur measuring up 32 mms and Dehra Dun 119 mms.
Expect heavy falls in U.P. (west) and good rains in Delhi Thursday thru Friday. Some heavier falls in Utterakhand. Heavy rainfall in central Nepal and Kathmandu region Thursday night/Friday.
W.D. (JU-2) is tracking east, and will precipitate rains in Kashmir and H.P. on Thursday/Friday. Expecting mild snowfall in the higher reaches.
A persisting UAC over Gujarat may swing the off shore trough from "off" to "on" again. In fact, I would think the trough may activate and spring up an off shore vortex in the south Konkan region by Friday.
Heavy rainfall expected in South Konkan and Mumbai from Friday thru Saturday. Can anticipate up to 10-12 cms in certain places along south Konkan Friday/Saturday.
Interior Mah will be without any meaningfull rain next few days. Except light rain showers in Vid. Expecting rainfall in North interior Karnatak Friday.
Pune: Thursday: Cloudy with drizzle in some areas.
Friday; Cloudy, with a shower in some parts in the evening. Rain amount 5 mms. Saturday: Cloudy with a shower or two in parts. Saturday rain amount 5-10 mms.
Mumbai: Tuesday and Wednesday weather was on expected lines. 3/4 showers, some heavy in certain areas. We had intervals of sunshine in the afternoon. The average rainfall between Colaba and S'Cruz recorded was 25 mms on Tuesday and 32 mms on Wednesday. Vagaries estimation was up to 25 mms on each day.
Thursday: 2/3 heavy showers in some parts during the day, interrupted by bright intervals. Tendency for rainfall to increase by night. Rain amount during day around 15-20 mms and another 30 mms at night. (All rain amounts mentioned are average rain between Colaba and S'Cruz).
Friday: Frequent showers with overcast day. Showers will be heavy and with gusty winds. Increase itowards evening /night . Rain amount around 70 mms.
Saturday: Frequent showers with gusty winds. Some showers accompanied by thunder. Rain decreasing after night. Rain amount around 55 mms.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
See Mumbai Page for those interested in Mumbai weather (updated on Tuesday night).
Yesterday’s Monsoon trough line on Vagaries Map is the Normal Position for this time.
Just observed it has slid South.
If it remains in this position for next 24 hrs: Then with embedded UACs in it, it can bring very good rainfall to Gujarat, North interior Mah. And Vid and North A.P.
It can re-activate the west coast off shore trough (meaning enhanced rains for Mumbai), and it also indicates the MJO will remain active for another week beyond 26th July.
Please let us not jump to any conclusion , as the axis can move back North in next 12 hrs.Wait and watch.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a few heavy showers in some areas. Sunny intervals will make it reach 31c in the day. Rain amount 20-25 mms.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. 3/4 showers, a few heavy downpours in parts of the city. Rain amount 20-25 mms.
Pune: Tuesday/Wednesday: Parlty cloudy with sunny spells. Light drizzles in some parts. Max temperatures around 30c.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Pune will be warmish on Sunday. Partly cloudy with drizzles in some parts. Decrease from Monday
Check Vagaries’ International Page for U.S. Heat Wave, and For an in depth Detail of U.S. Heat Wave..catch up on Mark's Blog...
Friday, July 22, 2011
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy to overcast conditions, with 4/5 heavy showers. Possibility of heavy showers on Saturday night. An increase in rains compared to Thursday/Friday. Rainfall lessening from Sunday night onwards. Rain amount 50 mms accumulated for Sat/Sun.
Monday: Rainfall decreasing.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Thursday was almost dry with a few shaowers. Rainfall measured in the day was 5 mms, with sunny intervals.
Friday will be partly cloudy, with a few showers. Rainfall on the increase from night. Rain amount 15 mms.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy to overcast conditions, with 3/4 heavy showers. Some parts could get a few prolonged showers. Nominal increase in rains compared to Thursday/Friday. Rainfall lessening from Sunday night onwards. Rain amount
(Tentative estimate): Rainfall decreasing.
Partly cloudy to sunny, with light drizzle in some areas.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with sunny intervals. Light drizzles in some areas. Rain amount 5 mms.
Latest on weather tonite at 10.30 pm
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Mumbai Page updated with latest on city weather.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
24 cms at Koyna, 19 cms at Tala, 18 at Murud, 13 at Ratnagiri, 11cms at Mumbai Colaba and S'Cruz. These are some of the heavy rainfall figures from the Konkan region as on Sunday morning. These may not be exceptionally high, but worth the mention as the development towards this sudden rainfall is worth a study and mention.
Late (Saturday) sees the pressure fall at the 700 hpa, over the
At the tropospheric level, a vortex ran down from the
The natural result of all this was quick clouds forming along the off shore trough around the vortice.
Mumbai Colaba received 111 mms and S'Cruz 106 mms till 8.30 am Sunday, most of it after 3 am Sunday. Panvel measured 70 mms up to 8.30 am Sunday.
During the day on Sunday, Colaba measured 22 mms and S'Cruz 24 mms.
For Monday, i would estimate a normal monsoon day. Cloudy with 4/5 showers and strong gusts during the showers. Bright intervals between showers. Rain amount 30-35 mms.
Viewing and seeing the present situation, would estimate a reduction in rains intensity (with sunny intervals) Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall total at Colaba: 1114 mms. and S'Cruz 1455 mms. Last year, 2010, on date 16th July it was 1389 mms and 1383 mms resp.
Reduction in rains from Wednesday.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011
See Mumbai Page for weekend forecast and latest review of July
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Mumbai had heavy showers pre noon, with a decrease in intensity after around 1 pm. Till the evening, the city measured 44.mms and S'Cruz 84mms. The other AWS stations mesured between 35 mms (Worli) and 65 mms during the day. (Vagaries estimate 35-40 mms).
Lakes got copious rainfall, with Tansa notching up 20 cms.Thursday Night will be wet with heavy showers. But, showers are expected to "slow down" after around 2 am (Friday morning). Satellite townships expected to witness real heavy downpours around mid night, reducing gradually by morning.
Pune will be partly cloudy on Friday. Week end will be cloudy with sunny intervals. Light drizzles and very light showers in parts of Pune.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Mumbai : A few prolonged heavy showers on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be cloudy with 3/4 fairly heavy showers of prolonged durations up to 30 minutes and high winds. Post late afternoon, the rain frequency will decrease. Rain amount average 35-40 mms.
Friday: Showers frequency decreases as compared to Thursday, and bright sunny intervals during day. Rain amount average 20 mms.
Pune: Light rains on Wednesday night. Thursday will be cloudy with a few showers in parts of Pune. Drizzling on and off. Clearing by evening.Rain amount 10 mms.
Friday: cloudy with a few drizzles in parts. Less precipitation compared to Thursday. Rain amount up to 5 mms.
1. A weak low has formed in the Northern Bay off the Orissa/W.Bengal coast.
2. Resultantly, the Eastern end of the monsoon axis has dipped southwards. The monsoon trough has an embedded UAC, NE of Mumbai
3. Our third expectation, the west coast off shore trough. This has now strengthened,(map above) and has an embedded UAC, at 700 hpa. The map also shows a vortex formed over Marathwada and adjoining Madhya Mah.
Expecting heavy precipitation, due to the vortex, on Wed/Thurs over Maratwada, and Madhya Mah. And,Vid. will have moderate rains. Rains decreasing from Thursday evening in interior Mah. and Vid.
Nagpur will get some rain on Wednesday evening thru Thursday, maybe around 20-25 mms. accumulated Wed thru Thurs.
West coast will be lashed by heavy rains. Heavy fall in Konkan, with some readings going upto 150 mms by Thursday morning. Interior Karnataka not expected to get the brunt.
Mumbai: Wednesday will be wet with regular showers, most of them heavy. Heaviest showers in South mumbai possible around 1pm-2 pm. A decrease in rain intensity and frequency around afternoon. Resuming heavy showers by evening. Rain amount upto Thursday morning averaging 75 mms, could measure up to 100 mms in some parts.
Thursday: Lesser frequency rains from afternoon onwards. Overall rain amount decreasing, with few showers in evening. Rain amount 50 mms.
Latest report tonite by 10.30 pm
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Monday, July 11, 2011
Hence, the Mumbai (and satellite towns) forecast for Monday stands changed to sunny with few showers. Rain amounts 10 mms. Next forecast tonite.
The scenario in the Bay remains hopeful for a low by tomorrow.
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Mumbai: With the Friday estimate thrown out (with 150 mms), Saturday was more like it (for vagaries). On Saturday, precipitation was 14 mms and 23 mms at Colaba and S'Cruz. (Estimate 20-25 mms).
Sunday, 10th,: Cloudy with 4/5 periods of showers. Some will be heavy (possibly post-noon) in different parts of the city. Inter-sparsed with bright intervals at times. Rain 25-30 mms.
Monday, 11th: Cloudy, with some heavy downpours. Increase in rain frequency, possible as off shore trough strengthens. Windy during rains. Rain 30-40 mms.
Tuesday, 12th: Overcast and frequent showers. Rain amount 35-40 mms.
Friday, July 08, 2011
A Weather Event, as Rare as a "Blue Moon":
The Atacama Desert Experiences Heavy Snowfall...for those interested on International Page.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
Mumbai: Wednesday/Thursday was wet and frequent showers pushed up the total by about 40 mms in the last 36 hrs.
Friday will see some showers, heavy in the day. But the rain is not expected to be prolonged, and a decrease in the evening and night. Rain amount 20-25 mms.
Saturday: Cloudy, with 3/4 showers at times in different areas. Rain 20-25 mms
Sunday: Cloudy, with sunny intervals. A few passing showers, will be heavy, in certain areas. Rain 20 mms.
Pune: Will be cloudy on Friday with sprinkling of rain . Saturday can see a few showers, some quite heavy in areas. Sunday will be cloudy to partly sunny.
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
After a 20 mm rainfall day on Monday, Tuesdat was drier for Mumbai, with only 5 mms recorded till 8.30 pm.
In the Sunday write-up, Vagaries had predicted an increase in showers for Mumbai from Wednesday into Thursday, but with a caution that we would monitor the development of the situation. Well, I think a gradual increase of rainfall from Wednesday is possible, and with thunder, Mumbai can have frequent heavy showers thru an overcast Thursday. Rain amounts of 25-30 mms on Wednesday and 30-35 mms on Thursday.
Posted 21st October A Western Disturbance is to affect North India starting October 22. This system will have an effect over the hilly...