Latest on AS-2:

Positioned at 10.0 pm IST, Monday, at 16N and 57.7E. Movement in last 6 hrs: NW.

IMD terms it as a depression, core pressure being at 1002 mb now. Winds maintained at 20 knts.

Clouding is thick and concentrated in the west of the system, over Oman. Expecting rains in Salalah and Oman coast up to Sur.

Easterly jet streams are bringing the upper and medium clouds due East over coastal Pakistan and into Gujarat. As estimated, rainfall will be dragged into coastal Pakistan on Tuesday.

Having a constant NW track, the clouding is apparently moved away from the Karnataka and Konkan coast (and away from Mumbai).

As explained in earlier blog, AS-2 will now move N and skirt the South coast of Oman, due to jet streams direction and wind shear, but as a weaker system. On skirting the Oman coast, it seems the system will weaken rapidly.

The pace of weakening will decide whether there will be consequent (light) precipitation in

Gujarat or not.

The Southern UAC which was, as per last posting, just South of the Southern tip of India, has moved NW as anticipated, and now lies over the South Arabian Sea Clouding accumulated along the Kerala coast and Southern tip is due to this system.

System will gain, and will be numbered when the system descends to a sea level low by Tuesday.

November Forecast for the Sub-Continent will be put up on Tuesday by 3 pm IST

US Latest

ONE FOR THE AGES
Northeastern US brought to standstill as tree limbs crash onto powerlines cutting power to millions.

Latest Count of Those Currently In the Dark: 2,765,883

Storm Highlights and latest video on Mark’s blog….

Latest on AS-2: Updated 7.00pm IST Sunday.

Positioned at 6.00 pm IST, Sunday, at 14.7N and 58.9E. Movement in last 6 hrs : Slightly North.

Even though IMD terms it as a depression, being at 1006 mb now, after dropping to 1004 mb, its not gaining too much strength as such. Winds maintained at 20 knts.

Having a constant NW track, the clouding is apparently moving away from the Karnataka and Konkan coast (and away from Mumbai).

AS-2 will now move NW, and approach the South coast of Oman. As explained in earlier blog, may curve N later due to jet streams direction and wind shear, but as a weaker system. On skirting the Oman coast, it seems the system will weaken rapidly.

The Southern UAC is just South of the Southern tip of India. Clouding accumulated along the Kerala coast and Southern tip is due to this system.

System will gain, and will be numbered when the system descends to a sea level low by Tuesday. Expected to move NW, and cross into the Arabian Sea.

Latest on AS-2: IMD declares its stature as a depression...Latest Pressure is at 1007 mb..rising.

Position at 10.30pm IST Saturday: 12.6N and 60.5E. So movement seen is westwards. Winds at peak 20 knts, hence reduced to some extent since last observation.

The overall swirl of clouding seems to have moved slightly west along with the centre of the system.

Vagaries expects the system to move NW and possibly curve to North after 36 hrs from now.

Precipitation to some extent expected along coastal Karnataka and Konkan on Sunday. After the curving, precipitation expected along Sindh (Pakistan ) coast from Tuesday.

Southern UAC maintains strength and position as on Saturday night.

Next update: Sunday noon with Forecast.

Sat Image os AS-2 as on 11.30 am IST Saturday.

AS-2 has moved North in the last 6 hrs, and is positioned at 13.0N and 63.7E at 11.30 am IST. Still maintaining pressure at 1004 mb, the maximum winds are at 25 knts. 

Its spiral is growing, and is now spread over a diameter of almost 1200 kms across the Arabian Sea, while the outer spiral is now covering a distance of almost 1800 kms !

Expected to move NW and then North. Due to the SST at 29c, and other factors, it now may deepen marginally, maybe up to 1000 mb at the most.

Coastal karnataka, Goa and Konkan should get rain on Saturday and Sunday as mentioned yesterday.

The UAC in the Gulf of Mannar has deepened. Expect very heavy rains in the regions mentioned last night. Keep a watch on this too !

Yesterday we talked about AS-2 changing stature from today (Friday), and it has.

AS-2 has showed an erratic movement, and has moved due east in the last 6 hrs ! From 10.8N and 60.9E it has shifted to 10.6N and 64.5E (at 10.30 pm IST, Friday). Having deepened to 1004 mb, it has maximum winds at 25 knts in the Northern segment. The clouding around the system is now showing a swirl, and IMD expects the system to deepen more.

Vagaries forecasts a further deepening and a NW movement, initially, and then North.

Coastal Sindh (Pakistan) can get some precipitation in such a scenario (by Tuesday), depending on the movement of the system. The track and strength of AS-2 will be updated on Vagaries regularly.

The other low mentioned in Vagaries ( secondary low) yesterday is now positioned at 12.5N and 68E, just off the Karnataka coast, and also at 1004 mb.This low is embedded in the trough associated with AS-2.

Next update on AS-2 on Saturday, 29th, at 12.15 pm

UAC formed in the Gulf of Mannar. Heavy rains expected in the districts of Thoothukudi, Puddukotai, Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinam and Puducherry this weekend.

With no W.D.s expected, the Northern region is expected to be dry till Wednesday at least.

Night temperatures will drop by 2/3 c in Punjab and Haryana and Delhi.

Amritsar and Chandigarh are expected to have nights at 10/11c from Monday 31st. Delhi will see 13/14c by the 31st.

Mumbai Forecast for the weekend:

Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with light rains possible. Light showers could be expected in some parts. Temperature range: 33c-25c.

Potentially Major and Historic Snowstorm Aims at Populated Northeast U.S. on Saturday….

Is Northeast Snow in October a Rarity?

Those Interested See Mark’s Blog for an updated account.

Happy New Year to all Readers.

AS-2, is almost stationary since the last 18 hrs. Situated in the Southern Arabian Sea, at 7.6N and 65E, its at around 1006 mb with 15 knts winds. Now, an extended trough running from the system has brought clouding into the adjacent west coast of India.

There is another low (1008 mb) embedded in the trough, just off the Karnataka cost.

For all practical purposes, we can say the clouding seen on Thursday in the Arabian Sea and along the South Konkan/Goa and Karnataka coast is associated with AS-2 and its associated secondary low.

AS-2 should change its stature from tomorrow, having been stagnant for almost a day now. Deepen a bit initially, and move North.

Now, almost all models show the system moving NW into Oman. I would wait. If the system takes the upper jet stream course (which normally they do), then, I would say it will first move NW, and then take a Northerly direction.

In that case, Coastal Sindh (Pakistan) may see some rain early next week.

Meanwhile, during the weekend, a vortex developing off the Southern T.N. coast will produce very heavy rains in the Puducherry region, alongwith very heavy rains in the Thoothukudi,

Puddukotai, Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinam districts on Saturday/Sunday.

Mumbai recorded a hight of 34.6c at Colaba and 36.3c on Thursday. Being partly cloudy, as predicted, the humidity was higher on Thursday at 60% (compared to 40% yesterday).

Pune was in the range of 31.7 - and 16.8c. The night temperatures for the next 2 nights will also be in the predicted range.

The forecast put for Mumbai and Pune on Wednesday remains valid (See Mumbai Page).

Mumbai/Pune Forecast for next 3 days on Mumbai Page.

Some were asking me about the vagaries' predicted system (around 20th) in the Arabian Sea ?

Well, it seems, its here ! 95A forms in the South Arabian Sea ! Currently at 1006 mb, AS-2 has an extended trough towards the west coast if India. Its rain effect, already seen over the Karnataka and Goa coast, will be seen along the Karnataka coast and Goa on Wednesday and Thursday, and moving into South Konkan by Thursday.

GFS and a few International models show AS-2 going upto depression strength and moving NW towards Oman. If it moves away, precipitation along the coast will decrease.

Greetings From Vagaries to All the Readers:

MAY THIS Diwali BRING LIGHT AND HAPPINESS IN YOUR LIFE !

WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DiwalI and Prosperous New Year.

Regards,
Rajesh.

Posting @ 10.15pm Tuesday, 25th.

Low pressure off the coast getting active and producing storms along Karnatak/Goa coast.

Massive thunderstorms underway in coastal Karnataka. Violent thunderstorm commences in Goa. Hail reported in Panjim.

In the plains of the country, On Tuesday Morning (25th October), Ahmadnagar (Mah.) was at 12.1c, Pune dips to 12.6c,( Simla:11.7c, Just for info), Amritsar: 13.0c, Nasik :13.4c, Aurangabad: 16.5c, New Delhi: 17.6c and Mumbai S'Cruz 19.3c.

Low in the Arabian Sea at 1006 mb moves slightly North and remains off N.Karnataka coast on Tuesday morning.

Easterly wave bringing good precipitation to Chennai coast and T.N.

IMD announces the setting of the NEM over T.N. and Kerala. SWM out of full country.

UAC over East Arabian Sea off Kearala coast persisits, and Australian Bureau and Thai Met. show it as a sea level low off the Karnataka coast. A trough from this low extends towards the west coast, and could strengthen the low to some extent.

Precipitation expected in Kerala and coastal Karnataka next 2/3 days. If the trough remains and strengthens the low, could see some rain creeping up into Goa.

Expected Bay low seem to be evading !Though the UAC is persisting. Anyway, the up-coming Easterly Wave might just get the projected rain inflow onto the T.N coast.

Snowfall, first of this season, reported from Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Tangmarg on Saturday and Sunday. Last year, the first snow in the mid hills was on 13th November.

This weekend, all the higher reaches also got snow in Kashmir and H.P.

Sunday, 23rd October:Max Temperatures today:

Hottest in Asia: Makkah: 40c

Hottest in India on Sunday (23rd October):

Deesa, Idar and Surendranagar (Gujarat): 37.8c.

Mumbai Colaba: 36.6c

Mumbai S'Cruz: 36.2c.

Ratnagiri:36.4c

N.Delhi (SFD): 33c

Bangalore:30c.

Hottest in Pakistan: Mithi: 38c.

Karachi: 35c.

The advent of the NEM has been delayed beyond our expectations this year.

Vagaries had predicted its advance by the 16th. on 1st October, taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM by the 12th etc. The SWM lingered on, and even today, on the 22nd, is still prevailing over Karnataka and T.N.

The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.Another factor are the jet streams. In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are prevailing west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late .

In my last report on the La-Nina, we have discussed that La-Nina is "on the threshhold" of forming..not yet established.There has been little change from then, as atmospheric indicators continue to hover around La Niña thresholds.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened over the past seven days, with a 30-day SOI value of +10.0 as on 16th October. Sustained SOI values above +8.0 can indicate La Niña events. Factors favour the formation of a La-Nina event within the next 30 days.

Anyway, the latest models show the MJO getting a bit stronger from next week (24th), and moving eastwards in the seas South of Sri Lanka, along the 8N line. Its only after 2nd November that the MJO is shown getting stronger (and more effective) in the entire Bay region.

A UAC today lies over South T.N. and adjoining Sri Lanka. This holds out hope of creating an Easterly wave, which can push a current, a NEM current, onto the T.N. coast initially, and then into the interiors and forcing the SWM "out".

Another system lies over the Lakshadweep Islands and the Kerala coast. IMD indicates this as a UAC. While the Thai Met Dept indicates it as a low at 1006 mb.

Saturday (22nd October) Morning minimum temperatures:
Maharashtra: Ahmadnagar: 13.5c, Nasik: 14.5c, Pune: 15.6c,  Mumbai S'Cruz: 21.6c.
New Delhi: 18.4c, Srinagar:5.2c.
Light snow recorded in Gulmarg (3.6 mms) with the minimum at -0.5c today. Pahalgam however has not received snow, and the low today was 1.4c. Leh was at -3.0c on Saturday morning.

The W.D.effect:

Parts of Himachal Pradesh experienced snowfall during the last 24 hrs.

Report said that Bhagotu area of Pangi subdivision in Chamba district got 5 cm snowfall while high passes like Barlacha got fresh snowfall, while weather was cloudy in the higher reaches of Lahaul Spiti and Kinnaur district of the state.

Minimum temperature of of Keylong in Lahaul Spiti was recorded at 1.3c, and Kalpa was 3.8c.

In Kashmir, Gulmarg touched freezing point on Friday morning, and the minimum was 0c. First snowfall expected in the next 24 hrs. Srinagar's low was at 5.4c on Friday.

Northern areas of Pakistan had a marginal effect of this W.D. Mild precipitation of 2 mms was recorded in Islamabad. However the hottest in Pakistan was still at 39c (Turbat).

Expecting the nights to get cooler in the North and Islamabad next 2/3 nights. Karachi can expect a fall of about 2c (to around 19c) in night temperatures next 2/3 nights. Days will be around 33/34c.

Kathmandu got some light rain today (Friday), just traces recorded. The day was at 26c and the night was at 15.9c due to cloudy weather.

Saturday will be warm for Mumbai with a high of 35c (Friday was 34.2c), and the morning low should be at 22/23c.

Pune and Delhi, can expect a minimum of 16/17c Saturday morning.

A brief note on Saturday (evening) on the prospects of NEM.

1. As per Vagaries, 700 hpa and 850 hpa winds,and 200 hpa winds indicate withdrawal of SWM from South Maharashtra, Karnataka and Northern T.N. 

SWM withdrawal from T.N. and Kerala will be replaced by NEM onset  in these states around 24th.

2. Vagaries October Forecast mentioned specifically 4 cities night temperatures dropping to below 15c after the 20th. Well, it seems the drop has started. Last night's low was 15c in Nasik, 17c in Pune, 18c in Aurangabad and 19c in Delhi (Delhi was 17c yesterday). Further fall in nights in most interior cities expected.

3.Weak W.D. expected to precipitate some rain/snow in Kashmir and H.P. Also Central Nepal could expect rain today.

In the October forecast put up (link available on the right side of this page), we had mentioned that the NEM would set in around the 16th, and as weak MJO is expected till the 22nd, the monsoon would remain subdued.

However, the weak MJO has stalled the NEM conditions from advancing, and prevented any systems from forming in the Southern Bay.

Even, BB-9 actually took a route normally familiar to SWM days.

Now, after the NE winds get re-organised in the Bay, a fresh low will form in the Southern Bay around the 24th of October, (mentioned in the 18th blog).

With the reversal of winds, the SWM will withdraw and the NEM will set in in the Southern Peninsula by the 24th.

A weak W.D.is expected to cross the Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. in the week end. Can expect snowfall in the mid hills of Kashmir.

Shower or two expected in Central Nepal and Kathmandu on Friday. Night temperature to rise a bit on Friday/Saturday.

Mumbai had a high of 33.7c on Thursday. Friday will be hot, with the day rising to 35c.

BB-9 is now a DD as per IMD and TC as per JTWC.

Located at 20.2N and 91.2E (11.30 am IST Wednesday), and core pressure dropping to 996 mb, winds at 35 knts, is designated as cyclone.

Heading NE towards Chittagong and Myanmar coast. Heavy rains in Meghalaya and Tripura and coastal Bangladesh, as system crosses tonite.

BB-9 is located (10.30pm Tuesday) at 19.4N and 90E.That means, it has moved NE from our last positioning on vagaries.Max winds are at 20 knts, at pressure is 1004 mb. So, intensity is almost same and maintained. Expected to move NE, and bring rainfall to gangatic Bengal and Bangladesh.

UAC over East Arabian Sea off Kearala coast persisits at same strength.Precipitation expected in Kerala next 2/3 days.

Another system is expected to form in the South Bay around 24th October. There is one possibility of system tracking due west into the Arabian Sea, and will merge with current UAC and emerge as a low in the Arabian Sea around Divali.

Another possibility I do Not rule out is the UAC strengthening into a low on its own around the 21st/22nd of this month.

Thunderstorms were reported today from Amreli, Panelli and Upleta regions of Saurashtra. Very gusty winds have uprooted a number of trees and broken down power lines. Our Yesterday's report confirmed 9 cms rain in Amreli.

Tuesday, 18th October:Max Temperatures today:

Hottest in Asia: Makkah: 43c

Hottest in Pakistan: Turbat: 41c. Karachi: 37c.

Hottest in India on Tuesday (18th October): Deesa (Gujarat): 39c.

Mumbai S'Cruz: 33c.

Mumbai Colaba: 32c

N.Delhi (SFD): 33c

Bangalore:30c.

Bangalore Special:

Bangalore is nicknamed the Garden City and was once called a pensioner's paradise.

Bangalore experiences a tropical savanna climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. Due to its high elevation, 920 mts or 3018 ft above sea level, Bangalore usually enjoys a more moderate climate throughout the year, although occasional heat waves can make things very uncomfortable in the summer.

The coolest month is January with an average low temperature of 15.1 °C and the hottest month is April with an average high temperature of 33.6 °C.[38] The highest temperature ever recorded in Bangalore is 38.9 °C(recorded in March 1931) and the lowest ever is 7.8 °C (recorded in January 1884).

Bangalore receives rainfall from both the northeast and the southwest monsoons and the wettest months are September (195 mms), October (180 mms). November receives 65 mms.

The daily rainfall graph shows the rains this year from the SWM have been average for Bangalore. A daily rain histogram shows the figures.

October average normal rainfall is 180 mms. Bangalore Rain fall from 1st October to 18th October 2011: 102 mms (16 mms)

The average temperature range for Bangalore from mid-July to mid October (previous 3 months) this year has been above normal by 0.5c. Diagram shows the daily temperatures.

The heaviest rainfall recorded in a 24-hour period is 179 millimetres recorded on 1 October 1997.

Expecting little rain this week for Bangalore. Maybe a light shower. Rainfall upto 5 mms.

1. 94B latest position as on 9.30pm Monday at 17N and 89 E, meaning system has deepened to 1004 mb and moved NW. Expecting to deepen more, and move North to NE. Concentration of rainfall to increase over West Bengal (Kolkata) and Bangladesh after 19th October.

2. A UAC off the Kerala coast persists. Likely to bring rain along Kerala coast next 2 days. Keeping a watch on this system.

3. As SWM retreats, rainfall will slide south of Maharashtra, and light thundershowers will be concentrated in S.I. Karnataka (including Bangalore) this week.Bangalore could expect light rains next 3 days, upto 5 mms/day. Expect thundershowers to continue in South Karnataka this week, but weakening in T.N.

4. Amreli and Junagadh regions of Saurashtra were lashed by a severe hailstorm and heavy rainfall on Monday evening. As post Monsoon temperatures soared to 39.3c at Surendranagar, and 39c at Deesa, with Rajkot soaring to 38.5c, and a temporary low formed due to heat caused thunderstorms on a local convection level. According to Ashokbhai, a few places measured upto 50 mms in 2 hrs of torrential hailstorms.Expecting these storms in Saurashtra till 19th.

See Mumbai Page for local weather...

Sunday/Monday Mumbai Forecast on Page:

Dust storm on Mars....Hurricane Speed Winds In Martian Dust Devils…See Space News Page

Vagaries Estimate October weather forecaste Reproduced v/s actual (in green)

Black Print is original Forecast, and Green is actual performance.

Vagaries Estimate for October for the Sub-Continent:

-As we see the SWM still prevailing in the Indian peninsula and Eastern regions, we shall first discuss its possible retreat.

The current signs and parameters suggest a withdrawal of the SWM from Maharashtra and A.P, and Orissa by the 1st week of October.

SWM withdrew from A.P.and Orissa, still prevailing in S.Maharashtra.

-Further withdrawal from the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. and Kerala will be between 7th and 12th October.

Not yet thru.

-Formations of UACs or a low pressure in the South Bay around 16th can herald the advance of the NEM. Initially, as a weak MJO prevails in the Indian Seas, NEM may remain weak till the 22nd.

UAC formed in South Bay on 14^th, and could become a low by 16^th. NEM can adveance.

-ENSOconditions remain within neutral conditions, but both atmospheric and oceanic indicators show a trend toward La Niña. More importantly, for a La Niña event to occur, these indicators must remain above the threshold and persist for at least a few months.

Hence, NEM could be moderate to avarage after setting thru October.

No major W.D. is seen crossing the Northern regions in the first half of October. However, as the westerly upper winds gain strength and stabilise, a W.D. is possible in the second half of the month. The middle hills (Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kalpa, Keylong) could get the first snowfall during the 2nd half of this month, and here will see the temperature touch 0c by the 15th of October. Leh, in Ladhak will freeze a week before.

A weak W.D. moved across Northern sub-Continent in the 1^st week, and brought snow to the higher reaches. Middle hills snow possible as forecasted.

-Northern plains of India, Delhi, Gujarat and Rajasthan will be hot in the day. Day temepratures in these areas will hover between the 32-37c range till the 15th October. Cooling will take effect in the 2nd half.

Days will be around 33-35c in interior Maharashtra cities till around 18th October.

Delhi, Pune, Aurangabad and Nasik will drop to below 15c (night ) after the 20th.

Northern Plains are currently in the 33-37c day range, with 38c as the highest. Maharashtra interior cities are in the 33-35c range. Night temperature in the North are around 20-23c range, and drops should be on schedule.

-There could be a possibility of a depression forming, and strengthening, in the East Arabian Sea off the west coast of India around the 20th of October. This is based on certain assumptions, and such long time predictions could change.

Waiting. Date not arrived !

-For Nepal, the surface winds have almost become westerlies to NW. Indicative of SWM withdrawal. SWM still holds sway in the central and Eastern parts, but likely to retreat by the 1st week.

Local weather phenomena always holds the key over the Mountainous areas, which in turn effects the nearby plains. Thunder cells could form in the mountains, and drift over the nearest plains areas. Specially in the next few days, as the region is predominantly saturated with moisture.

In general, we can expect the nights in Kathmandu to get cooler after the 10th. Presently at around 17c, will start dropping to around 14/15c and gradually go lower.

The average rain for October is around 57 mms, and most of it could be from local phenomena, meaning no W.D.systems etc.

Do not expect any W.D. to have any great effect in October.

SWM withdraws, and Kathmandu nights get cooler, after the 10^th. Nights went down to 13-14c, and now is around 15/16c.

-Sindh regions of Pakistan will initially heat up in the first half of October. The days will be in the 35-39c range in many cities of Sindh, with cooler nights dipping to around 18/19c in the interiors. Days will drop to below 34c after mid October.

Northern regions will experience the normal cooling, with a couple of W.D.s in the Northern most regions preicipitating rains, after 20th of this month.

Days in Sindh are around 35-38c range, with the highest showing 39c. Nights are still warmer than expected in Sindh in the 22-24c range.

Thursday's rain till 6 pm: Mumbai Chembur 42 mms, Colaba 0.7 mms, Santa Cruz 12 mms. Strong downdraft from cloud tops brought the temperature at S'Cruz which was 33c at 3.15 pm, to 24c at 5.15 pm.

Currently, at 7 pm, cloud top heights stand at less than 15 kms, and with reduced growing tendencies.

More rainfall figures from Thursday's rain: Bhira 40 mms, Mulde (Sindhudurg) 18 mms, Thane 8 mms. Temperature dropped from a high of 33c to 24c by 5 pm, in Thane, after a squall brought in cold breeze at ground level.

Wednesday's storms precipitated good rains in the Mumbai lakes. Tulsi (overflowing) saw 86 mms of rain, Vihar (93% full) got 56 mms.Lonavala's Walwand dam (73%) got 64 mms and Barvi (overflowing) in Thane got 30 mms.

Latest Thunderhead sat. pic over Mumbai taken at 5.35 pm Thursday.Compare with yesterday's same time pic.

Huge thundercells rolling in from the East and SE today.

Depth of clouds may be a bit less, but downdraft intensity at core seems heavy. Reaching over 18 kms, and with multi layer..sure to produce severe lightning.

Base a bit narrow, so could last less than yesterday..maybe rain off in 3 hrs.

See Mumbai Page....

Retreating Monsoon thunderstorms got the better of Western and southern Maharashtra again on Wednesday evening. As the cumulo nimbus clouds developed, a superbly conducive atmosphere around the region made massive thunder heads rise to 18 kms above sea level, and created an internal 2 level basis within the clouds to ignite lightning within the cloud system itself. Developing west 200 mb jet streams inter-acting with the "departing" SE jet winds, cause massive thunder reactions during a withdrawing monsoon.

Today evening, Rajgurunagar got 50 mms, Satara 46 mms, Pashan got 16 mms, Mahableshwar 18 mms,

Massive storms rolled towards Mumbai by the evening, and resulted in heavy precipitation in many parts of the city. Extreme lightning and deafening thunder shook the city. By evening, upto 8.30 pm, SantaCruz measured 59 mms and Colaba 32 mms. south Mumbai at my residence, 44 mms were measured till 9.30 pm.

Yes, this has taken the author by surprise. If, we had been waiting for this thunderstorm farewell since 25th September, and it happens, after all the monsoon "settings" are over and done with, definitely it is a surprise and was not expected today. Not in Mumbai, but restricted to South Konkan and South Mah.

svt: Please note while reading the wundermaps, these are up graded at 12.30 pm, 6.30pm and 12.30am IST everyday. Not every hour.

See home video here and here.

Latest 3D image taken @5.40pm Wednesday of the Mumbai coast and interior Mah.

Click Here to see Enlargement

The retreating SWM was perticularly violent on Tuesday in South Maharashtra regions. Some severe thunderstorms were witnessed in the Southern Mah. areas, with Pune measuring 105 mms in an evening spell. Pashan notched up 81 mms, while Chinchwad saw 37 mms of rain.

Some thundercells achieved an 18 km altititude over the ghats south of Mumbai, and took a "peek" over Mumbai. With some lightning seen in the SE skies, Colaba got 1 mm of rain in its rain guage. Did not really expect much in Mumbai to happen, and Wednesday a-is as sultry and hot as expected.

Well, this development is in line with vagaries' forecast, and would expect the SWM to move completely out of S. Mah. in the next 2 days. Thundershowers would be of the order in S.Mah for another 2 days, and subsequently, the SWM retreat would be completet from Karnataka too.

The trough in South India persisit across the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. thru Kerala into the Arabian Sea.

More later tonite...on all India Weather and temperatures.

Indo-French Weather Satellite-the 1000kg "Megha Tropique", sucessfully put in Orbit from Sri HariKota.--Satellite boon for Tropical Countries.

Monday Latest IMD: Quote- "A cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. lies over southeast & adjoining east

central Bay of Bengal. A trough extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. runs from the above system to Lakshadweep area across southwest Bay of

Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Tamil Nadu".

Well, there is a sea level low of 1010 mb off the South A.P./North T.N. coast and the trough from this runs along South A.P., T.N. and into the Arabian Sea thru Kerala.

Now, with the east-west trough running across South-Central India, the axis possibly could be aligned southwards across this line.

If the trough deepens, and descends, the western end in the Arabian Sea could possibly see a circulation formation in the next 4/5 days.

Gradual Southward retreat of SWM in the next 3 days will occur, with Thundershowers in South Mah, interior Karnaraka and T.N, coastal Karntaka and Kerala.

Meanwhile, heavy thundershowers lashing Goa and Coastal Karnataka on Monday is holding on the SWM to the South Madhya Mah. and S.Konkan region and, good reports of rain from Coastal ans S.I. Karnataka are reported as on Monday.

Some prominnent rain figures upto Monday morning in cms: Sakleshpura 9.3, Sangamneshwar 6.6, Karkala 6.4, Dharmasthala (D.Kannada) 5.9, M.M.Hills (Chamarajanagar) 5.6, Huliyurdurga (Tumkur) 5.0, Mudubidre 4.6, Salem 4.2, Mahad 3.5, Irikkur 3.3, Guhagar (Mah) 3.1

Monday was hot as exepected in the non-monsoon regions of Mahrashtra, with Nandurbar rising to 37.5c. The temple town of Shirdi was hot at 33.1c.

Mumbai Forecast:

Tuesday: Hot day, and uncomfortable, as the humidity range will be between a max of 80% in the morning to 40% in the afternoon. Tuesday will see the day at 35c, but Wednesday and Thursday the thermometer might try to scale 36c.

Thane reached 35c.on Monday. Expecting Thane and Panvel to manage 37c by Thursday..

Pune was at a high of 34c on Monday. Tuesday expect a light drizzle in the evening in some parts, but no relief from 34c. In fact the city may see 35c on Wednesday. But nights will be around 19c, that's the consolation.

What is Airglow?....if interested, read it on Space News Page….see also Interaction Page

The W.D. (upper air) has moved away.

The high altitude areas in Lahaul and spiti and Pangi and Rohtang pass in Himachal Pradesh on Saturday experienced mild snowfall

Delhi is experiencing day temperatures of around 35c, and nights around 23c.

Nights are expected to drop by about 2c by Monday in Delhi and Punjab, including Chandigarh.

Days will remain warm as per our October forecast.

The upper jet streams at 200 hpa level are indicative of a change from the seasonal east to SW on Saturday. Within the next 2 days, as per forecasts, the jet streams are set form an organised west direction over the state, and that would mean complete retreat of SWM from remaining South Konkan and S. Madhya Maharashtra.

Days will warm up in interior Mah. to the predicted range of 33-35c from Monday.

N.I. Karnataka should see SWM withdrawal after Maharashtra. As of today, it seems, regular southward withdrawal shift, into Karnataka region should be on without further hindrance.

Mumbai is done with this year's SWM.....Hot on Saturday, with Colaba at 32.8c and Santacruz at 34.3c. The nights are warm at 26c at both ends. Suburbs touched a low humidity 0f 46% in the afternoon on Saturday.

The upper reaches of the Kashmir region received the first snowfall on Friday, 7th October. While the upper reaches around Gulmarg experienced about five to six inches of first snowfall of the season, it was raining in Gulmarg town.

Nepal Met Dept. has announced the complete withdrawal of the SWM from the country as on 7th October.

And, we see Kathmandu drop to 15.4c today (7th Morning). Had expected (in the October forecast) to reach 14/15c around the 10th.

Mumbai: As mentioned yesterday, the Arabian Sea UAC has fizzled out today. I would personally feel the removal of SWM from Mumbai and North Konkan could be done with from Saturday, 8th October.

However, with residual moisture lingering in the ghats, there is a 30% chance of a "hit or miss" thunder rain in some areas of the city for Saturday.

Thursday's Maximum Day temperature range.

Latest 00Z Saturday 850 mb GFS shows the upper air anti-cyclone completely dominating NW and Central India. And in the bargain wiping out a feeble attempt made by the SWM to survive over N. Madhya mahrashtra and North Konkan in the form of a UAC in the East Arabian Sea. Though the UAC has brought some rains today (Thursday) to the coast South of Alibag, and some interiors along the coast.

In addition, a sliding down of dry air can be seen from this IMD humidity map.

Besides the usual wind charts, another condition as per IMD for withdrawal, is that the region should not get rain (more than 2.5 mms) for at least 3 days at a stretch.(Mumbai had 4 mms on Wednessday).

With the UAC getting obliterated by Saturday, the SWM retreat path is clear for Mumbai.

A W.D. is approaching the Kashmir region from the west and should bring precipitation to the region on Friday/Saturday.

Latest weather charts indicate a withdrawal of the SWM from Vidharbha and Marathwada. All the regions North and East of Maharastra are Monsoon free.

We see strong NW blowing in the plains of central India.

For Madhya Maharastra and Konkan (including Mumbai), I would like to wait till the UAC in the East Arabian Sea fizzles out.

Sporadic rains might just continue in the Konkan till this UAC is present.

Since the begining of October, Mumbai has been getting light rain in scattered areas. Would wait for the UAC to outlive its life span, and then declare the retreat of the SWM.

Pradeep,s efforts and superb compiling of All India Monsoon Rain Toppers:

Final Verdict: All India SWM winner is Amboli with a close win over Agumbe and Kollur

After 90 days of South West Monsoon, we finally have a winner and it is Amboli from Maharashtra. 80 mm separated the top three. The legend Cherrapunji managed to cross 6000 mm mark. It was really a classic fight between Kollur and Agumbe till the end.

I will still continue to rank the toppers in North East Monsoon too. From Tamil Nadu, Chinna Kallar made the list with 4800 mm rainfall. Watch out for this place in NEM. It gets rains in NEM too.

All India

Rainfall in mm's (Min 4000 mm)

Amboli (Maharashtra) - 7449

Agumbe (Karnataka) - 7405

Kollur (Karnataka) - 7375

Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6830

Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6536

Mulshi (Maharashtra) - 6471

Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 6396

Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 6140

Bhira (Maharashtra) - 5725

Radhanagri (Maharashtra) - 5421

Koyna Dam (Maharashtra) - 5419

Kadra (Karnataka) - 5325

Lonavala (Maharashtra) - 5318

Siddapura (Karnataka) - 5289

Gerosoppa (Karnataka) - 5206

Tillari (Maharashtra) - 5066

Gorkhana (Karnataka) - 5038

Chinna Kallar (Tamil Nadu) - 4800

Valpoi (Goa) - 4766

Rajapur (Maharashtra) - 4617

Mandangad (Maharashtra) - 4590

Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 4532

Tulshi Lake (Maharashtra) - 4526

Mhasla (Maharashtra) - 4485

Kankavli (Maharashtra) - 4464

Sawantwadi (Maharashtra) - 4451

Karkala (Karnataka) - 4422

Matheran (Maharashtra) - 4400

Walwand (Maharashtra) - 4393

Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 4360

Lanja (Maharashtra) - 4284

Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 4266

Vadakara (Kerala) - 4231

Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 4100

Malvan (Maharashtra) - 4091

Honavar (Karnataka) - 4073

Pawna (Maharashtra) - 4057

Sanguem (Goa) - 4047

Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 4031

Udupi (Karnataka) - 4026

Quepem (Goa) - 4010

Places such as Tamini, Hulikal, Nilkund, Mawsynarm, Poochippara, Walakkad and Castle Rock would have also made the above 4000 mm list.

Major Cities

Apart from the above places, the rank of India's Major Cities (Population above 2 million) for the SWM are as follows

Rainfall in mm SWM total

Mumbai – 3155

Kolkata – 1403

Bhopal - 1266

Surat – 1218

Lucknow – 1046

Indore - 982

Nagpur – 911

Patna - 871

Pune – 803

Chennai – 789

Ahmedabad – 728

Jaipur – 675

Delhi – 622

Bangalore – 540

Hyderabad – 528

For Chennai monsoon (NEM) is yet to begin, i am sure it will end second in the list behind for the year behind Mumbai.

Region wise SWM Toppers

With limited available data, the following are the region wise toppers (Rainfall in mm SWM total)

North India

1.Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 3180

2.Dehradun (Uttranchal)- 2426

3.Jammu (Kashmir) - 1238

Central India

1. Guna (Madhya Pradesh) - 1825

2.Jabalpur (Madhya Pradesh) - 1692

3.Raipur (Chhattisgarh) - 1562

North East India

1.Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 6140

2.Chouldhowaghat (Assam) - 3026

East India

1.Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 3380

2.Darjeeling (West Bengal) -2657

3.Gangtok (Sikkim) - 2540

North West India

1.Kaprada (Gujarat) - 2811

2.Pardi (Gujarat) - 2476

3.Umerpada (Gujarat) - 2441

4.Mt Abu (Rajasthan) - 2050

West India

1.Amboli (Maharashtra) - 7449

2.Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6830

3.Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6536

4.Mulshi (Maharashtra) - 6471

5.Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 6396

South India

1.Agumbe (Karnataka) - 7405

2.Kollur (Karnataka) - 7375

3.Kadra (Karnataka) - 5325

4.Siddapura (Karnataka) - 5289

Vagaires' October Forecast put up as a link on the right of this page for easy reference in future.

Vagaries Estimate for October Weather for the Sub-Continent:

As we see the SWM still prevailing in the Indian peninsula and Eastern regions, we shall first discuss its possible retreat.

The current signs and parameters suggest a withdrawal of the SWM from Maharashtra and A.P, and Orissa by the 1st week of October.

Further withdrawal from the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. and Kerala will be between 7th and 12th October.

Formations of UACs or a low pressure in the South Bay around 16th can herald the advance of the NEM. Initially, as a weak MJO prevails in the Indian Seas, NEM may remain weak till the 22nd.

ENSO conditions remain within neutral conditions, but both atmospheric and oceanic indicators show a trend toward La Niña. More importantly, for a La Niña event to occur, these indicators must remain above the threshold and persist for at least a few months.

Hence, NEM could be moderate to average after setting thru October.

No major W.D. is seen crossing the Northern regions in the first half of October. However, as the westerly upper winds gain strength and stabilise, a W.D. is possible in the second half of the month. The middle hills (Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kalpa, Keylong) could get the first snowfall during the 2nd half of this month, and here will see the temperature touch 0c by the 15th of October. Leh, in Ladhak will freeze a week before.

Northern plains of India, Delhi, Gujarat and Rajasthan will be hot in the day. Day temperatures in these areas will hover between the 32-37c range till the 15th October. Cooling will take effect in the 2nd half.

Days will be around 33-35c in interior Maharashtra cities till around 18th October.

Delhi, Pune, Aurangabad and Nasik will drop to below 15c (night ) after the 20th.

There could be a possibility of a depression forming, and strengthening, in the East Arabian Sea off the west coast of India around the 20th of October. This is based on certain assumptions, and such long time predictions could change.

For Nepal, the surface winds have almost become westerly to NW. Indicative of SWM withdrawal. SWM still holds sway in the central and Eastern parts, but likely to retreat by the 1st week.

Local weather phenomena always holds the key over the Mountainous areas, which in turn effects the nearby plains. Thunder cells could form in the mountains, and drift over the nearest plains areas. Specially in the next few days, as the region is predominantly saturated with moisture.

In general, we can expect the nights in Kathmandu to get cooler after the 10th, will start dropping to around 14/15c and gradually go lower.Presently at around 17c.

The average rain for for Kathmandu in October is around 57 mms, and most of it could be from local phenomena, meaning no W.D.systems etc.Do not expect any W.D. to have any great effect in October.

Sindh regions of Pakistan will initially heat up in the first half of October. The days will be in the 35-39c range in many cities of Sindh, with cooler nights dipping to around 18/19c in the interiors. Days will drop to below 34c after mid October.

Northern regions will experience the normal cooling, with a couple of W.D.s in the Northern most regions preicipitating rains, after 20th of this month.

Reader's views and suggestions most welcome.

These estimates are my personal views, and should not be depended upon for commercial uses.

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