From Navdeep Dahiya 

Wonderful article on WD for us written by Shreyas Dhavale (Vagarian)


Western Disturbances:

Being in the tropics, broadly speaking, the winter over India is characterized by cool and dry weather.

We all are aware that it snows over Himalayas in winter. For snowfall to occur, the presence of clouds is

necessary. But where do these clouds come from after the monsoon has withdrawn from the

subcontinent? The reason for this winter precipitation which is in the form of rain/snow over Himalayas

and rain over parts of north Indian plains is the Western Disturbances (WDs).

More info on below link:

Click here for pdf

Posted Monday 24th Afternoon:

33.8c and 32.2c, these are the Sunday day time temperatures for Mumbai Scruz and Colaba.
Well. some relief ahead for around Christmas time....These days around Christmas date will be clear of clouds.
`For Mumbai, 25th will be a bit cooler and 27th/28th with strong North winds will see the days dropping 2/3 c to around 29/30c. Nights on Thursday and Friday will also get more pleasant , dropping to around 14/16c at Scruz on Thursday and Colaba may see 17/18c. 

Pune will see a drop in night temperatures later around Wednesday and Thursday to around 8/9c. Nasik too will feel cold around 7/8c on the 26th/27th.

Maharashtra and Gujarat cooler effect will  show a diminishing sign from Sunday, as we expect East winds to resume  in the region.

With North winds blowing, this cold effect will also be felt in Gujarat. 26th/27th, Ahmedabad will drop to 9/10c , Rajkot may touch 10c and Naliya to around 6/7c.

Severe cold of 3/4c minimum is expected in New Delhi on 26th/27th. Colder conditions will trap the smog and reduce visibility.

No major meaningful rains expected in Tamil Nadu next 4 days. Chennai will be in the 30-23c range.

INDIA ..Under the grip of winter 
20 Dec 2018

Mostly dry weather is prevailing over the country.Himalayas are in deep freeze.
Even in absence of a strong Western Disturbance effect , most of India is in grip of winter due to Northwest winds.

1) Min temp map 

• Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar) has reported lowest min temps (freezing point) over the plains and plateaus of the country.
• Mumbai (Scz) ,Delhi (Sfd) reported lowest min temp of the season till now. 
• In Maharashtra , the lowest min temp of 6 c was reported at Nagar .Mumbai region min temp was in 11 c to 18 c range. Pune city region min temp was in 8 c to 12 c range.

During the weekend ..

• The below normal min temps to continue over Rajasthan , Haryana ( min temps 0 c to 6 c ).
• Delhi will be around 4-6 c range .
• East India min temp will fall by 2/3 c .Kolkata min temp will fall to 10 /11 c .
• Pune city (west) min temp will be around 11 c and Pune city (east) will be around 14 c .
• Mumbai Scz min temp will be around 18 c .
• Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 17/18 c.
• Chennai will be partly cloudy at 21 / 22 c.

2) Max temp map 

Most of the country was fine ,crisp,sunny during the day. Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar)  had daily temp range of upto 30 c .

The max temp was mostly normal throughout the country (except East India , where it was below normal) .The humidity was lowest in West Indian region.

Mumbai region max temp was in 27 c to 33 range.

During the weekend ,

• Most of the country will continue to be sunny and dry (some rains may be confined to south Tamilnadu , Kerala).
• Delhi max will be around 22/24 c range .
• Kolkata max will settle at 25 c .
• Pune city max will be around 29 c .
• Mumbai Scz will be dry and sunny at 33 c .
• Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 27/28 c .
• With not much rains , Chennai will be partly cloudy and breezy at 29/30 c.

How Monsoons in Africa Drove Glacier Growth in Europe

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Posted Monday 2.30 pm IST:

BB-14 makes landfall in A.P. near Kakinada and Yanam. Officially crossed and making landfall.
But, estimated core winds speed was 30 knts, less than the IMD cyclone norm and in the Deep Depression category.
(Vagaries prediction of Landfall below Cyclone norm was mentioned on 12th December.)

The system weakened due to unfavourable SST and drier air near the coast. 
Kakinada received 72 mms from 8.30 am-2.30 pm Monday, and Vizag 70 mms in the same period.
Vijaywada received 242 mms in previous 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Monday, and 14 mms on Monday in 9 hrs.


The system grazed the TN coast and went Northwards due to the favourable upper air divergence.
Expected to weaken fast and track NE inland.


11.30 pm IST

'grazing  ' as described by vagaries

Posted Saturday 1 pm IST

Deep Depression BB-14 at 1 pm IST Saturday....

Posted Friday 14th December 11.30 am IST:

BB-14 , a deep depression now, is situated at 8.2N and 87.6E. the system is 960 kms East /South East off Chennai.
Estimated core pressure is 1004 mb and estimated core winds at 55-65 kmph.
Will deepen more now to a Cyclone.
Expected to track North initially, and then N/NW. When it will encounter drier air of NE winds blowing along East Coast. May weaken 1 Stage.
Will "graze" A.P. coast around 16th December. Possibility  of "Graze" and re curve N/NE, and re enter moist air again.

Week end:
Pune may see around 25/26c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
Nagpur will get weekend rains and much cooler days on sunday/Monday (20/22c).


However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 32/33c again. The pleasant lows can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).

Hyderabad : After getting record December rains of 47 mms on Thursday, some more rains this weekend. Cold days around 22c on Sunday/Monday.

Posted Wednesday 12th December Afternoon:

The fresh Low in the Bay ( BB-14) is likely to strengthen and become a depression in 24 hrs. The twin Low South of BB-14 will help the system strengthen further and become Deep. Subsequently possibility of a cyclone forming is Low as we see dry NE winds along the East Coast. System will cross the North Tamil Nadu Coast around 15th/16th . Very squally winds and rough seas expected along the TN Coast from Friday.
Heavy rains likely in Chennai on Saturday with Gusty winds. Days will drop to 25c on Saturday and Sunday.

An East-West trough is likely to attract East winds into Maharashtra from Thursday. As the above system approaches, moisture will creep into Telengana, N.I.K. Marathwada and Vidharbh.
Rains and Thunder showers with possible hail likely in the Marathwada and Vidhrbh region on Saturday and Sunday.

Maharashtra: Interior getting cooler days, Coast warming :
With East winds blowing across Maharashtra (i) The day temperatures will start to drop in interior Maharashtra. 
Pune may see around 24/25c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
Nagpur will get weekend rains and cooler days.
(ii) However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 33c again. From Thursday itself, or latest by Friday, Mumbai will feel the days getting warmer. The pleasant lows of the last 3 nights can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).

Posted Monday 10th Evening

Fresh Low BB-14, in South Bay...Expected to deepen and track towards TN..crossing as DD/Cyclone on 16th....

WD will move Eastwards

8 Dec 2018  
Will Maharashtra see first sub 10 c of this season ..

This post monsoon transition season (Oct / Nov) has seen above average temps over most of Maharashtra and Goa .The state still awaits the first customary sub 10 c min temp from the Deccan plateau region (Madhya Maharashtra / Marathwada / Vidarbha).

Dry, sunny, fine weather will prevail over most of the state during the next 4 days.
As clearer weather returns over interior Maharashtra compared to the partly cloudy weather during past few days ,  temps are expected to fall over the majority of the state during the next 4 days  .


As per the available data set ,

• Nasik city saw the lowest min temp of the state today at 13 c (outside of the hill ranges of the state).
• Vengurla in South Konkan saw the highest temp of the state  today at 34.6 c 

1) MIN TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

Mumbai region min temp was in 16 c to 21 c range.
Pune city region min temp was in 15 c to 18 c range.

Except North Konkan , minimum temp was above normal throughout the state.
Contrary to this time of the year ,there was no significant different in the min temps of the coast and interiors (at same latitudes).

2) MAX TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

Except North Konkan and Eastern Vidarbha , maximum temp was above normal throughout the state.

The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest . 

Mumbai region max temp was mostly in 35 c to 31 c range.The green environs of Vagaries club at South Mumbai helped the max temp to be capped to a mild 29 c.
Pune city region max temp was in 31 c to 32 c range.

Mahabaleshwar (in the ghats) recorded max temp of fine,comfy 26 c .

North East Monsoon - Not much rain activity expected around Chennai region for the next 4 days.The days will be partly sunny and moderately humid with a max of 31 c. Night temps will be 23/24 c .

Western Disturbance  - Under WD trough effect ,snowfall in the higher reaches and rainfall in the lower reaches of Northern Himalayas and adjoining areas (Jammu Kashmir , Himachal , Uttarakhand,Punjab) during the next 4 days.Fall in day temps.

Delhi will be foggy and partly cloudy (23 c / 9 c ).

7th December:
Latest Extremes :
Karwar 36.6c.
Keylong (HP) -9.9c. Leh (JK) -8.7c, Gulmarg (JK) -6.2c, Srinagar (JK) -4.0c & Abu (Raj) 4.4c.

NEM Position today:

Posted Saturday evening
Hottest place in India on Saturday was
Thane :36.2c,
Mangalore 36.0 c
Vengurla: 35. 9 c
All along the West coast.
Saturday morning,
Ahmadnagar low was 10.0c,Aurangabad & Nasik 11 c, Pune 12c. Mahableshwar 14 c. So Mahableshwar not as cool as others in Maharashtra.
Mumbai :at 35c will have a pleasant low of 19c on Sunday.
Pune will see 10/11c on Sunday. 

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-thane-is-india-s-hottest-city-mumbai-third-heat-wave-to-continue-till-sunday-experts-2690582/amp?__twitter_impression=true

28 Nov 2018  
Maharashtra still awaits sub 10 c min temp

This post monsoon transition season (Oct / Nov) has seen above average temps over most of Maharashtra and Goa .The state still awaits the first customary sub 10 c min temp from the Deccan plateau region (Madhya Maharashtra / Marathwada / Vidarbha).

Currently; dry, sunny, fine weather prevails over the state.
The majority area of Deccan plateau saw min temps in the cold range of 10-13 c .Interior Konkan min temp was 15-17 c.Coastal Konkan min temp was 17-21 c.

As per the available data set ,

• Ahmadnagar saw the lowest min temp of the state today at 10 c (outside of the hill ranges of the state).
• Thane Belapur Industrial Area (TBIA) in Mumbai region saw the highest temp of the state and the country today at 35.8 c (though the lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp during this time of the year , made it feel more comfortable than the readings suggest). 

1) MIN TEMP MAP (28 Nov 2018) 

Mumbai region min temp was in 15 c to 22 c range.
Pune city region min temp was in 11 c to 15 c range.

2) MAX TEMP MAP (28 NOV 2018) 
Most of the Deccan Plateau was fine,sunny and dry at 29-31 c .
Konkan region(west coast) was sunny,warm and dry at 33-35 c .
The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest .

Mumbai region max was 33 to 35.8 c  with very  low hum of 20 to 30 % (heat index at 31 to 35). The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest .

Posted Sunday night :

A NEM break now is not good news  Break till 1st week of December, and time is running out. We need good massive spells in early December.

A WD is on course for good winter rains and snow over North and North West India.. By Wednesday night 

Mainly dry weather all over India next 3 days.

Mumbai : next 3 days will see Easterly winds in the morning . Hence day warm around 33-35 c. After evening sea breeze  night around 20/22c.

Pune :light high clouds keeping day around 30/32c. Nights will be around 13/15c.

The normal power of NEM... Today's rain

One hell of a pull effect rains seen in Tamil Nadu Delta region as bands after bands moved into the Delta belt.Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.11.2018

===================

in mm (min 50 mm)

Ramanthapuram
-------------
Rameswaram - 226
Pamban - 155
Thangachimadam - 150
Mandapam - 94

Nagapattinam
-------------
Talaignayar - 212
Nagapattinam - 167
Tirupoondi - 146
Tarangambadi - 103
Mayiladathurai - 64

Tiruvarur
-----------
Valangaiman - 190
Tiruvarur - 174
Koraiyar head (pannimangalam) - 158
Needmangalam - 153
Kodavasal - 136
Thattankovil - 132
Pandavaiyar Head - 117
Mannargudi - 114
Nannilam - 97
Thiruthuraipoondi - 71

Thanjavur
-----------
Neivasal thenpathi - 175
Papanasam - 155
Kumbakonam - 147
Eachanviduthi - 145
Lower Anaicut - 124
Manjalaru - 114
Madukkur - 102
Thiruvidaimaruthur - 90
Vettaikadu- 88
Tiruvaiyaru - 82
Pattukottai - 74
Adiramapattinam - 72
Ayyampettai - 71
Thanjavur PTO - 71
Kurungulam - 50

Cuddalore
-----------
Kilacheruvai- 145
Lakkur - 141
Me.Mathur - 88
Tozhudur - 86
Vepur - 83
Km.Koil - 79
Pallandurai - 69
Bhuvanagiri - 66
Srimushnam - 61
Parangipettai - 53
Seithaithope - 50

Ariyalaur
---------
Ariyalur - 103
Jayamkondam - 71
Sendurai - 67
Thirumanur - 62

Perambalur
------------
Agaram Seekoor - 102
Chettikulam - 95
Perambalur - 89
Labbaikudikadu - 84
Veppanthattai - 54

Trichy
-------
Devimangalam - 88
Kallakudi - 60
Lalgudi - 60
Pullambadi - 59
Samyapuram - 54
Thenparanadu - 50

Coimbatore
-------------
Chinnakallar - 84
Valparai Taluk Office - 73
Valparai PAP - 68
Sholayar Dam - 51

Others
---------
Karaikkal, Karaikkal - 111
Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 61
Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 57
Chittar I, Kanyakumari - 56
Perungalur, Pudukottai - 57
Ulunderpet, Villupuram -53
Pillaiyarkuppam, Villupuram - 50
Thirupalapandal, Villupuram - 49
Servalar, Tirunelveli - 47
Sattur, Virudhunagar - 46
Sulangurichi, Villupuram - 46
Harur, Dharmapuri - 45
Kadalkudi, Thoothukudi - 45
Ettayapuram, Thoothukudi - 44
Gandavarkottai, Pudukottai - 44
Madampoondi, Villupuram - 43
Nedungal, Krishnagiri - 43
Veeraganoor, Salem - 43
Vengur, Villupuram - 42
Sankarapuram, Villupuram - 42
Mugaiyur, Villupuram - 41
Keeranoor, Pudukottai - 40
Chengam, Tiruvannamalai - 40
Polur, Tiruvannamalai - 40

Massive Rainfall in and around Chennai region and Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 23.11.2018
========================
in mm

Chengalpet - 183
Madurantagam - 138
Thirukazhakundram (near mahabs) - 130
Mahabalipuram - 96
Uthiramerur - 95
Vembakakkam - 77
Sriperumbedur - 77
Kancheepuram - 73
Cholavaram - 59
Redhills - 57
Tambaram - 54
Tamaraipakkam - 52
Katupakkam - 48
Arakonam - 38
Sathyabama University - 37
Tiruttani PTO - 37
Puzhal - 34
Ponneri - 32
Tiruttani - 27
Ennore - 26
DGP office Marina - 22
Chembarabakkam - 21
Poonamallee - 20
Kelambakkam - 19
Meenambakkam - 17
Hindustan University - 16
Anna University - 16
Tiruvallur - 16
Thiruvalangadu - 16
Madhavaram - 15
Kolapakkam - 13
Poondi Lake - 13
Nungambakkam - 12
Korattur Anaicut - 11
Taramani - 10

Others
------------------
 Vandavasi, Thiruvanamalai - 93
Chetpet, Thiruvannamalai - 93
Tiruporur, Kancheepuram - 86
Marakannam, Villupuram - 80
Parangipettai, Cuddalore - 78
Vanur, Villupuram - 77
Avalurpettai, Villupuram - 77
Valathy, Villupuram - 76
Gingee, Villupuram - 76
Vallam, Villupuram - 74
Kalasapakkam, Tiruvannamalai - 74
Arani, Tiruvannamalai - 70
Vadakuthu, Cuddalore - 69
Avinashi, Tiruppur - 64
Kodanad, Nilgiris - 62
Semmedu, Villupuram - 62
Polur, Tiruvannamalai - 61
Cheyyar, Tiruvvannamali - 61
Cuddalore, Cuddalore - 59
Ayikudi, Tirunelveli - 55
Tiruvannamalai, Tiruvannamalai - 55
Neyveli, Cuddalore - 55
Kalvai, Vellore - 55
Srikazhi, Nafapattinam - 52
Sankarapuram, Villupuram - 51
Manimuthar, Tirunelveli - 50
Thekkady, Theni - 50
Pondy, Pondy - 49
Anaikaranchatram, Nagapattinam - 48
Vellore, Vellore - 47
Trangambadi, Nagapattinam - 41
Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 40

Chennai region and Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 22.11.2018 from the WML (92 B)
=================
in mm

Chithamur - 180
Cholavaram Lake - 120
Madhavaram - 119
Redhils Lake - 106
Cheyyur - 103
Gumidipoondi - 100
Ponneri - 97
Ennore - 96
Nungambakkam - 94
DGP Office Marina - 93
Puzhal - 91
Meenambakkam - 87
Guindy - 85
Thamaraipakkam - 83
Uthukottai - 80
Tirukazhakundram - 77
Tiruttani - 75
Taramani - 74
Tiruporur - 64
Tiruttani PTO - 64
Sathyabama University - 60
Aynavaram - 59
Madurantagam - 58
Mahabalipuram - 58
Poondi Lake - 56
Alandur - 56
Kelambakkam - 54
Ambattur - 53
Chengalpet - 50
MGR Nagar - 49
Tondairpet - 48
Perambur - 48
Tiruvallur - 45
Parrys - 43
Tambaram - 40
Hindustan University - 40
Sholinganallur - 40
Kancheepuram - 36
Katupakkam - 35
Poonamalle - 33
Korattur Anaicut - 31
Chembarabakkam Lake - 31
Thiruvalangadu - 30

Villupuram
----------
Vanur - 112
Marakanam - 89
Tindivanam - 88
Vallam - 68
Vilupuram - 61
Gingee - 57
Mailam - 53
Koliyanur - 49
Kedar - 42
Semmedu - 40
Mundiyampakkam - 40
Erudaiyampattu - 40
Anandhapuram - 40
Sankarapuram - 40

Cuddalore
-------
Vadakuthu - 91
Panruti - 86
Neyveli - 76
Kurinjipadi - 54
Tozhudur - 46
Kilacheruvai - 31
Lakkur - 30
Vanmahadevi - 30
Vepur - 30

Thiruvannamalai
---------------
Kilpennathur - 51
Vandavasi - 49
Chetpet - 43

Vellore
---------
Katpadi - 50
Arakonam - 32
Ammundi - 31
Virinjipuram - 30
Arcot - 30

Salem
-----------
Veeraganoor - 68
Gangavalli - 42
Attur - 30

Others
----------------
Lower Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 82
Samayapuram, Trichy - 57
Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 56
Thaluthalai, Perambalur - 54
Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 46
Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 34
Pappireddipatti, Dharmapuri - 33
Harur, Dharmapuri - 30
Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 30 mm

GAJA becomes weak as it approaches 65E.
BB 14 set to bring rains to TN from Tuesday
WD approaching N. India by Wednesday .. N2

Kerala got its best spell of rains from Cyclone Gaja since the August 2018 floods. Rainfall ending 8.30 on 17.11.2018
===================
in mm (min 40 mm)

Kozha, Kottayam - 280
Piravom, Eranakulam - 186
Madupattey, Idukki - 157
Thodupuzha, Idukki - 152
Pambla Dam, Idukki - 147
Neeriamangalam, Idukki - 132
Cherthala, Alappuzha - 117
Munnar, Idukki - 116
Kumarakom, Kottayam - 105
Idukki Dam, Idukki - 98
Vaikom, Kottayam - 95
Myladumpara, Idukki - 85
Ponmudi, Idukki - 82
Kottayam, Kottayam - 79
Peermade, Idukki - 72
Vazhathope, Idukki - 60
Ernakulam South, Ernakulam - 54
Kakki Dam, Pathanamthitta - 48
Perumbavur, Eranakulam - 47
Alappuzha, Alappuzha - 43
Kochi AP, Ernakulam - 42
Mavelikkara, Alappuzha - 42

Info courtesy Vagaries Rainman Pradeep John

Tamil Nadu Rainfall from Cyclone Gaja in Tamil Nadu ending 8.30 am on 17.11.2018
==========================
in mm (40 mm)

Kodaikanal Boat Club, Dindigul - 197
Sivaganga, Sivaganga - 170
Kudimiyamalai, Pudukottai - 154
Kodaikanal, Dindigul - 141
Karaiyur, Pudukottai - 130
Marudhanadhi, Theni - 127
Annavasal, Pudukottai - 116
Peranai, Dindigul - 108
Thammampatty, Salem - 97
Nilakottai, Dindigul - 94
Illuppur, Pudukkottai - 88
Periyakulam, Theni - 88
Bodinaickanur, Theni - 88
Manjalar Dam, Theni - 80
Ponnamarvathi, Pudukottai - 80
Tirupattur, Sivaganga - 76
Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 70
Vadipatti, Madurai - 68
Kadamaparai, Coimbatore - 69
Pulippatti, Madurai - 69
Veerapandi, Theni - 68
Vaigai dam, Theni - 65
Andipatti, Theni - 64
Ayudaiyarkovil, Pudukottai - 64
Paluviduthi, Karur - 63
Cincona, Coimbatore - 63
Eravangalar Dam, Theni - 62
Kamatchipuram, Dindigul - 62
Sathiyar Dam, Madurai - 60
Dindigul, Dindigul - 59
Gudalur, Theni - 56
Odanchataram, Dindigul - 56
Aranmanaipudur, Theni - 54
Sholavandan, Madurai - 52
Sothuparai, Theni - 52
Mylampatti, Karur - 52
Karaikudi, Sivaganga - 51
Thekkady, Theni - 49
Periakallar, Coimbatore - 47
Thaniyamangalam - 46
Natham, Dindigul - 46
Valparai Taluk office, Coimbatore - 46
Parambikulam, Coimbatore - 46
Amaravathy Dam, Tiruppur - 46
Mettupatti, Madurai - 45
Mugaiyur, Villupuram - 45
Usilampatti, Madurai - 44
Uthamapalayam, Theni - 43
Kedar, Villupuram - 42
Mangalapuram, Namakkal - 41
Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 40
Kallandiri, Madurai - 40
Thiruvannamalai, Thiruvannamalai - 40
Upper Aliyar, Coimbatore - 40
Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 40
Viralimalai, Pudukkottai - 40

Rainfall from Cyclone Gaja in Tami Nadu ending 8.30 am on 16.11.2018
==========================
in mm (50 mm)

Thiruthuraipoondi, Tiruvarur - 171
Muthupet. Tiruvarur - 171
Adirampatnam, Thanjavur - 167
Vadakuthu, Cuddalore - 146
Peravurani, Thanjavur - 144
Pattukottai, Thanjavur - 143
Neyveli, Cuddalore - 143
Kurinjipadi, Cuddalore - 126
Virudachalam, Cuddalore - 120
Kodhavacheri, Cuddalore - 109
Chengalpattu, Kancheepuram - 107
Vettaikadu, Thanjavur - 93
Cuddalore, Cuddalore - 87
Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari - 85
Thiruporur, Kancheepuram - 85
Kuruthancode, Kanyakumari - 83
Madukkur, Thanjavur - 82
Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 77
Vandavasi, Tiruvannamalai - 76
Srimushnam, Cuddalore - 74
Uthiramerur, Kancheepuram - 73
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 73
Kottaram, Kanyakumari - 72
Valinokkam, Ramanathapuram - 72
Orthanad, Thanjavur - 72
Needamangalam, Tiruvarur - 67
Sethiathope, Cuddalore - 66
Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 66
Pondicherry, Puducherry - 66
Tozhudur, Cuddalore - 66
Nagapattinam, Nagapattinam - 64
Parangipettai, Cuddalore - 62
Kodaikanal, Dindigul - 61
Valangaiman, Tiruvarur - 60
Jayamkondam, Ariyalur - 60
Kancheepuram, Kancheepuram - 59
Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 58
Pannimangalam, Thiruvarur - 58
Chidambaram, Cuddalore - 54
Mambazhathuraiyaru, Kanyakumari - 54
Karaikal, Karaikal - 54
Alangudi, Pudukkottai - 53
Sendurai, Ariyalur - 53
Kodaikanal Boat Club, Dindigul - 53
Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari - 51
Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 51
Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 51
Neivasal, Tanjavur - 51
Ayyampet, Tanjavur - 51
Bhuvanagiri, Cuddalore - 51
Rameswaram, Ramanathapuram - 50
Kayalpattinam, Thoothukudi - 50
Kodavasal, Tiruvarur - 50
Kelambakkam, Kancheepuram - 50

Above compilation of 2 days rainfall across TN from Cyclone Gaja by Vagaries Rainman Pradeep John

Posted Saturday 17th Afternoon:

Position of Re-Emergence of Gaja in the Arabian Sea...

Current Analysis ----- Deep Depression
     

Date :  17 NOV 2018    Time :   071500 UTC

Lat :    9:44:41 N     Lon :   72:32:38 E...East/South of Lakshdweep 

CI# /  Pressure/   Vmax

3.5 /  998.3mb/   55.0kt

Final T#  3.5     
Center Temp : -54.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast: 
Posted:   15 NOV 2018    Time :   11.00 am IST, 053000 UTC
Position of "GAJA'"
     
Lat :   11:15:51 N     Lon :   82:21:37 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.6mb/ 55.0kt
Center Temp : -55.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Posted Wednesday Afternoon:Position of "GAJA"

1130 am : 12.8/84.8 
Winds: 75-85 gusting to 95 
Status:Cyclonic Storm

Posted Tuesday 13th Afternoon:

Below: GAJA Image at 11.30 am IST Tuesday.
Estimated Track and intensity ...

Posted Monday night 

"GAJA" will track West /South West as shown. As it enters drier air flow in the west the SCS will weaken after 18 hrs. It will weaken before striking North TamilNadu coast on Wednesday  

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over  Bay of Bengal lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11th November, 2018 near latitude 13.5°N and longitude 88.9°E, likely to cross north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts as a Cyclonic Storm on 15th November 

Posted Saturday night :
Depression in the Bay just W of the Andaman will likely strengthen to deep depression and then a cyclonic storm by Monday afternoon. Models remain in agreement on storm impacting, S. AndhraPradesh and TamilNadu, including Chennai, late  next week. 

Happy Diwali and New year to All the Vagaries Readers and Followers.

What is Diwali? 

Diwali is also known as Deepavali or Divali and is a Hindu festival symbolising the victory of light over darkness, good over evil and knowledge over ignorance. 

The Festival of Lights celebrates Rama-chandra returning to his people after exile. 

Rama is the seventh incarnation of the god Vishnu. 

Diwali is one of the most popular festivals in Hinduism, with families gathering to exchange gifts and share feasts. 

The celebration is also regarded as the start of a New Year. 

Kelvin-Helmhotz

Yesterday evening/night Thunderstorm lashed many parts of western Maharashtra Districts, Ghats section, interior Konkan & isolated part of Marathwada region.

Some Rainfall ending 8.30am today (05-11-18):

Ahmednagar Dist data in mms:

Akole 150

Rajur 58

Sakirwadi 48

Ghargaon 47

Kopargaon 41

Kotul 40 

Dolasane 40

Samsherpur 39

Shiblapur 34

Pimparane 32

Puntamba 29

Brahamwada 28

Sangamner 26

Virgaon 26

Samnapur 25

Aashwi 22

Sakur 21

Dhandarphal 20 

Talegaon 20 

Wadala 20

Rawande 17 

Pohegaon 16 

Manikdhondi 15

Shirdi 14 

Palashi 13 

Babhaleshwar 12

Kedgaon 11

Loni 11

Sonai 11

Nalegaon 10

Aurangabad district:

Siddhanath 50

Khandala 35

Loni 26

Borsar 24

Lasurgaon 24

Ladgaon 20

Harsul 19

Vaijapur 15

Mahalgaon 10

Shendurwada 10

Nashik dist in mms:

Devla 41

Warkheda 40

Chalisgaon (Jalgaon) 17

Malegaon 14

Ghats & Surroundings in mms:

Mulshi dam 75

Wadiwale 50

Pawana dam 49

Ahupe 48

Pimpalgaon joga dam 45

Khandala 45

Kamshet 45

Wadeshwar 45

Bamnoli 36

Wadaj 35

Andhra dam 33

Chakasman 28

Davdi 25

Pratapgad 19

Matheran 17

Mahabaleshwar 15

Manikdoh dam 14

Dimbhe dam 14

Kalmodi 13

Dhom Balkawadi 10

Interior Konkan in mms:

Kalkawne 60

Badlapur 55

Chiplun 52

Shirgaon 35

Hamarapur 35

Kamrali 28

Patpanhale 28

Karjat 26

Amberi 25

Dhasai 23

Dehari 21

Saralgaon 17

Sawantwadi 15

Murbad 15

Nhyadi 13

Mandangad 11

Khed 10

Some inputs helped by Vagarian Shivkumar