Wednesday, December 19, 2007

The easterly wave has brought a good amounts of rains in many areas of Tamil Nadu, ranging from 3-12 cms. It being fairly active, is expected to bring rains to Tamil Nadu, south Karnatak on Wednessday, and the rain tapering off by Thursday night in these regions. But the system will move west, and Kerala should get the effect of this on Thursday. Jim (Accuweather) feels the system has to be watched as it moves into the Arabian Sea. This may well be the last wet spell of the season for south India.

But after crossing into the Arabian Sea, it will have pushed some moisture northwards. With the help of a weak "vortex", I think some small amounts ,( upto 10 mm) of rain can be expected along the Western Ghats areas of Maharashtra. So, Goa, Pune and Satara districts may get rain on Friday and Saturday. Mumbai may be cloudy on Friday/Saturday (meaning rise in temperatures).

In the north, a weak W.D. is expected to bring some snow in the hills. Cold wave prevails as of today in the region, with Srinagar at -5.4c, Amritsar at 0.6 c, and Delhi at 4.3, Jaipur at 3.8c yesterday. Mt. Abu was 0c two days back, Leh was at -14 c.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Yesterday's W.D. was in effect as predicted.

Mid and lower hills across H.P.state were experiencing intermittent snowfall and light showers.
High-altitude areas and districts of Kinnaur, Chamba, Kullu and Lahaul-Spiti have witnessed snowfall for the third day. The minimum temperature at Petsio in Lahaul-Spiti plummeted to -17°C and -7.5°C at Dhundi in Kullu district.
The minimum temperature at Patsio and Dhundi was -9°C and -4°C, respectively. The night temperature at Keylong was -5.9°C, -4.5°C at Solang Nullah, -2°C at Bhang Manali, both in Kullu district.
Dhundi in Kullu district has recorded 94 cm snowfall followed by 62 cm at Solang Nullah, 13 cm at Bhnag Manali, 7 cm at Patseio, 6 cm at Keylong and 7.8 cm at Kalpa in Kinnaur district. Shimla recorded around 5 mm rain during in 24 hours.

The minimum temperature at Sundernagar, Bhuntar and Kalpa fell to 5.5°C, 2.8°C and -7.5°C, respectively. At Dharamsala, the maximum temperature on Wednesday was below 10°C. The Dhauldhar range was still experiencing snowfall.

On Thursday,the hill ranges with an altitude in excess of 7,500 ft in Shimla, Sirmaur, Kullu, Mandi, Kangra and Chamba have been witnessing intermittent snowfall . Narkanda and Khara Pathar received 20 cm fresh snow , taking the total during the current spell to 80 cm. The Hatu Peak was buried under 100 cm of snow. Paseio in Lahaul-Spiti recorded the lowest temperature of -15°C, while Keylong was slightly better on Thursday at -7.7°C.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Cool cloudy weather over the northern and central regions of India and Pakistan today. The W.D. mentioned yesterday reached the regions of Pakistan and india today itself. Day temperatures fell today to 15-18c in the nothern plains and to 10c in the mid-hills of H.P. and the Kashmir region.This NCEP map shows a beautiful radar image of the W.D.

As quickly as it came, it should pull out to the east,and "allow the easterly wave to become effective in the southern peninsula region. As forecasted, the easterly wave could last and bring rains for 5/6 days.

Saturday, December 08, 2007

A "series" of W.D.s ran through the northern parts of the sub continent. As anticipated, the temperatures fell to 3.5 c at Amritsar, 7.5 at Delhi, and fell generally over the northern and central regions of Pakistan and India. As predicted, the effect was felt in Gujarat and Maharshtra with Mumbai falling to 16c, and Rajkot to 13c (to name a few only,not the lowest).
Now, a fairly "strong " W.D. is to bring snow in the north of Pakistan, and Kashmir and H.P. in India. Rain is likely in Punjab and as far down as north Rajasthan. But as the system moves away rather quickly to the east, the precipitation will be there for a day only, maybe on Monday.
Thick fog and still lower temperatures will reappear from Tuesday in these regions, and the fog to last till the weekend.

But this augers well for the south. With the W.D. moving away an easterly wave is likekly to move into Tamil Nadu, south Karnatak and Kerala by Tuesday. Being fairly active, I think, the rain fall in these regions will last through till Saturday. And that too it will be quite widespread.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

The first "precipitating" W.D. reached the northern parts of the sub continent on the 30th. November. It was effective in breaking a 3 month dry spell in the hills and upper regions.

In Himachal Pradesh, Mashobra experienced the first snowfall of the season.
There are also reports of snowfall in higher reaches in Kullu and Chamba districts. The night temperature at Kalpa dipped to -0.7°C, Sundernagar recorded a minimum of 3.8°C, Bhuntar 3°C, Dharamsala 10.5°C, Una 6.5°C and Manali 3°C.
Breaking a long dry spell, the tourist town of Manali and its adjoining areas had the season’s first snowfall yesterday.
The Pir Panjal ranges, Brighu slopes, the Chanerkhani Pass, the Hampta Pass, Marhi meadows, Gulaba, Kothi, Dhundi and famous ski slopes of the Solang valley also had fresh snowfall. The Rohtang Pass experienced the season’s first heavy snowfall.

In Kashmir,it was after a couple of months that the valley witnessed rainfall, bringing down the day temperature. There were also reports of snowfall at Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonmarg and other areas.

Now, the second W.D. is to bring more snow to the hills, and rain to the plains of Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana by the 2nd.
The third W.D. of the series will have an effect almost on the run, that is by the 4th.

The cumulative weather effect will be substantial drop in day and night temperatures in north and central Pakistan, north, central and western India, and fog by the 4th. morning, as the skies clear in the north. By the 4th. Dec., towns in Punjab may experiance minimum temperatures of 3-5 c, and Rajasthan will be 6-8 c. Delhi should be at a minimum of 8-10 c and days at 22-24 c, from the 4th. Maharashtra and Gujarat will get moderate drops in temperatures at night, that this, temperatures will drop by about 3c from the 4th. Rajkot can drop to a minimum of 11-12c and the days will be cooler at around 27c for a few days from the 4th.

Down south, with the retreating of the W.D., an easterly wave may "attempt" to bring some rain to Tamil Nadu and south Kerala by the 7/8th. This can be followed up in the next blog.