Tuesday, October 30, 2018

30 Oct 2018  
Winter felt across Maharashtra & Goa

Lower min temps have been seen across the state with dry,sunny weather prevailing during the day.The Deccan plateau saw min temps of 11 to 16 c.Interior Konkan min temp was 15-17 c.Coastal Konkan min temp was 19-21 c.

1) Min temp map 
Mumbai saw a mixed bag.Eastern suburbs (Thane / Navi Mumbai / Badlapur) have seen min temps of 17-18 c.Scz(western suburbs) was 22 c.At South Mumbai , Vagaries club recorded min temp of 20.7 c

2) Max temp map 
Most of the Deccan Plateau was fine,sunny dry at 32 c .
Konkan region(west coast) was sunny,hot and dry at 35-37 c .
Image result for cactus cartoonMumbai Scz max was 37.1 c with very low hum of 15%. The lower humidity made the temperatures bearable (heat index lower than 35).
At South Mumbai , Vagaries Club recorded a max of 35.1 c .

Current Temp at Mumbai Andheri ( private reading recorded by Rohit)
(30 Oct 2018 , 12.45 pm) .. 33 c / 25% hum ..Heat Index 31

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Posted Thursday Evening:

1. UAC has formed in the Gulf of Mannar. But not expected to activate the situation to the extent wanted. Maybe another few days wait for NEM till UAC forms in the Bay 

2. Some rain was experienced on Thursday South of Pune and in the Modak Sagar region. Pune saw drizzles.
This weekend, Friday/Saturday/Sunday, dry weather expected in the country barring some rains in the North East States. 

3. No change in day temperatures. Nights are expected to drop by 2/3c in North/North West /Central India and Interior Maharashtra..

This weekend will be dry...., Nasik & Pune can see 12/14c.  ( From today's 18c in Pune)
Mumbai : After seeing a Low of 20.4c on Wednesday morning, Mumbai temperature shot up to 37.5c on Wednesday and 36.8c on Thursday. (Santa Cruz).
Mumbai will have a clear dry weekend with days around 35/36c and nights between 20/22c.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Posted Thursday 24th October 2018 Evening:

An East West trough at 925 hpa level exists from Sri Lanka to 95E. This Easterly Wave could deepen a bit and heralds in the NEM ( as a weak current) over Tamil Nadu by 25th Evening. It may culminate to a UAC at around 850 hpa, over SriLanka/South Tamil Nadu.This will strengthen the NE winds upto 700 hpa levels into Tamil Nadu.

With the 2018 rainy seasons initially hesitating to change between the SWM and NEM, a brief Summary of the NEM.

-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-The SWM has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

-The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.
-The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM.Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.

-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

-The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.
-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.
-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.
Excerpts from Bose's book on Indian Monsoon.

The advent of the NEM is getting  delayed this year.
Vagaries predicts its advance around the 25th. taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM. 

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are long overdue west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are seasonal and weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late.

Image from Vagaries of 24th October 2017..

Some cooling effect is seen in Interior Maharashtra, as the minimum Temperatures fell to 14c at Nasik, 14.4c at Ahmednagar,  Aurangabad saw 15.2c, 15.4c at Osmanabd and 16.5c in Pune & Nagpur.

Mumbai: Santacruz saw a low temperature of 20.2c (But a high of 37.6c !) and Colaba's low was 24c on Wednesday Morning.
Thursday will be partly cloudy in Mumbai, with the Eastern Regions possibily getting light drizzles in some parts. 
Friday will be clear and the weekend will see a further 2c fall in Night Conditions in Mumbai.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Posted 22nd October Morning:
The South West Monsoon has withdrawn from India. The UAC, previously off the west coast, has weakened and shifted South over the Lakshdweep/Maldives region.

Keeping hopes and eyes open for the Bay Low, to announce commencement of the NEM.

Almost dry weather over the country next few days.
Mumbai remains warm with east winds.

Posted 20th October:

South West Monsoon having withdrawn from all regions of the country except Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The SWM lingers on in this region due to an Upper Air Circulation off the Coastal regions. Likely to dissipate and withdraw the Monsoon by 22nd October. 
Keeping the views open for the NEM commencement.

Night temperatures likely to fall by 2/3c in NW India, Central India and Interior Mah.

Mumbai: Almost clear hazy days .Warm in the day and likely fall of night temperatures from Monday by 2/3c.


Huge WAVE of chilling temperatures to sweep into UK from Canada

The Met Office has warned Britain is set to get “quite chilly” next week with the overall trend

until early November expected to be “colder than average.

Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin: “Our old friend the jet stream is on a fast-moving ribbon of air where that cold air plunging south.”

-The Met Office has warned Britain is set to get “quite chilly” next week with the overall trend until early November expected to be “colder than average.
Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin: “Our old friend the jet stream is on a fast-moving ribbon of air where that cold air plunging south.”
As high pressure establishes itself next week, Monday will be slightly below average.
According to the Met Office’s forecast for next week there will be a rural frost in central areas,
Later in the week is when the trend of more cold is likely to establish itself.
Other forecasters have even warned of severe snowfall at the end of the month with temperatures plummeting further.

 From "The Express" ...Home of The Daily and Sunday Express

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Last burst of the South West Monsoon in South Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra, Goa and costal Karnataka. Thunder showers on Tuesday /Wednesday and Thursday. 

Friday, October 12, 2018

Posted Friday Night:

Cyclone "Titli" went along its predicted path faithfully following  the models and our forecast.
Will move into West Bengal as a depression...

Some huge amounts (rainfall) from Titli assent by  Vagarian Mitan Batu from Bhubeneshwar

More than 110 places got more than 100 mm under the Influence of Cyclone Titli in Odisha. Extremely heavy rain lashed Odisha for the third consecutive day.Rainfall Ending today at 8.30am..
Min 100mm:-
Phulbani-201mm, Daspalla-197mm
Satyabadi-191mm, Tigidia-190mm
Niali-186mm, Kabisuryanagar-186mm
Bolgarh-183mm, R.Guda-180mm
Gottabarrage-175mm, Jaipur-172mm
Gosani-170mm, Banapur-169mm
Gania-169mm, Tikarpada-165mm
Bahapur-164mm, Athagarh-163mm
Jatani-155mm, Narsingpur-154mm
Odogaon-154mm,R udayagiri-152mm
Bhanjanagar-152mm, Baramul-152mm
Nayagarh-151mm, Raygada-149mm
Jaipur,-148mm, Delanga-147mm
Kotagarh-142mm, Nuagaon-142mm
Baramba-141mm, Krusnaprasad-141mm
Garadhapur-140mm, Padmavati-138mm
Kanas-135mm, Sherganda-130mm
Nimapara-130mm, Alaping-129mm
Odapada-126mm, Armpur-126mm
Mahanga-125mm. Begunia-125mm.
South West  Monsoon will withdraw as mentioned earlier...

Interior Maharashtra specially Marathwada  remains deficient...Kutch remains deficient. 
Mumbai will be warm and day temperature will be around 34/35c...hazy day.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Posted Wednesday 10th Evening:
                                                Current Storms all over the World !(JTWC)

The very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ moved northwestwards with a speed of about 18 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 10th October 2018 near Lat.17.2°N and Long. 85.5°E, about 230 km south­/southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 190 km southeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). 

The estimated core pressure is 975 mb and centre temperature -35c. Cloud region temperature is -74c. and estimated wind speed is 130-140 kmph Gusts 165 kmph.It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph from
today, the 10th October 2018 night on wards along & off south Odisha & adjoining districts of north Andhra Pradesh coasts.Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting 70 kmph is very likely to commence along & off West Bengal coast from today afternoon and gradually increase to 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from today night onwards.
The system will be moving NW now due to the STR in the NW of it. Drier air is also pushing the System Northwards at a faster pace.
Titli is expected to cross the coast of Odisha by 11th October. It will then curve NE along the coast.

South West Monsoon Likely to withdraw from the country by 15th October.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Luban" over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northwestwards with a speed of 07
kmph during past six hours and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST 10th October 2018 over westcentral Arabian Sea,
near latitude 14.4°N and longitude 58.7°E. Estimated core pressure 968 mb and core temperature is +11c ...Estimated wind speed at 135-145 kmph.

Mumbai will be bearing up with the "October Heat"...Next 2/3 days will be around 35/36c and no meaning full cooling at night.
"October Heat" is not a new phenomena for Mumbai..In fact in October 2015 Scruz saw an all time high of 38.6c and in 1968, Colaba saw 39.4c in October. 
2018 October has seen 37.6c at Scruz, 2008 saw 37c. So, there is nothing like a specific "rising trend" to say so.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Posted Monday Night:
AS-3, lets call it as Cyclone "Luban"is located at 12.5N and 61E, and with estimated core pressure at . Core is wrapped with a defined circulation,and estimated winds at 45 knts-55 knts. Two prominent STRs exist,one North east of the System over NW India, and another North West of the system over Saudi Arabia. The second STR becomes dominant and prevents the cyclone from going Northwards (which we said could happen) and will track towards South Oman/Yemen.
Will strengthen more.
Due to the above track changes, chances of some rain over Mumbai diminishes.
1/2 degrees drop in day temperatures expected.

BB-12, now a depression,is located at 14.3N and 88.2E. Tracking NW towards Odisha/W.Bengal coast. Favorable conditions for further strengthening. NW and N/NW movement will pull moisture away from coastal TN. 

As mentioned, Monsoon has not yet withdrawn from Karnataka Southwards. Vagaries has not announced any date for NEM commencement.

-A  WD is moving in,bringing rain and snow to Kashmir and HP, ushering in early October "heavy snowfall"
Posted Sunday Night:
AS-3,Deep Depression latest at 12.3n and 64.3E. Estimated winds 30 knts and estimate pressure 1000 mb.

Mid High pressure ridge along 16N can prevent the Northwards track,
and AS-3 could track W/NW towards South Oman.

Rain Swath as estimated by HWRF
Mumbai: Chances rain from Outer bands still possible for Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bay Low has formed, and is steering towards Odisha Coast. STR sems may prevent Southward track.

SouthWest Monsoon withdrawal will be stagnant for another 24 hrs.
Posted Saturday Night:

Depression formed in Arabian Sea, AS-3, located at 11.3N and 66.9E. Estimated core pressure at 1000 mb and estimated winds at 25-30 knts. 
System will track NW and intensify into Cyclone "Luban" by Monday. Will head towards Oman.Likely to reach Oman coast Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong winds and rains likely in South Oman from Tuesday.

6th October, South West Monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai and withdrawal line shown below.
Withdrawal likely to be halted South of Goa for 2 days at this point .
As expected, Mumbai Scruz recorded 37.2c and Colaba 36.6c on Saturday...
Mumbai will be hot and dry (37c) on Sunday 7th and Monday 8th. 
On Tuesday 9th and Wednesday 10th, the outer bands of Cyclone Luban may bring some medium showers to Mumbai.
And along the Konkan coast.

A Low likely to form in East Central Bay around 8th. But this may not effect the Eastern Coast of India.

Thursday, October 04, 2018

South West Monsoon 2018 .. Toppers 

West India 

South India

North-East India

North Himalayan states 

East India

Central India 

North Indian plains

Thailand .. Trat 3503 mms 

few inputs from Abhijit Modak 

 14th July Good rains tops Mumbai lakes to 29.7%  ! ( Last year this date 29.7%!) Tamhini tops the list by recording 315mms #Khandala: 264 #...