June Month Rainfall Map for Mumbai region & Ghats section of Maharashtra with toppers from MH

June 2018 Rainfall Map of Mumbai MMR in North Kokan division 

Maharashtra's Western Ghats region Rainfall for June 2018

Map by Vagarian Tejas Baxi  & Data compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak

Mahrashtra Rainfall Toppers from 01.06.2018 to ending 8.30 am on 30.06.2018
=====================
in mms

1. Devgad, Sindhudurg - 2006
2. Ratnagiri, Ratnagiri - 1830
3. Malvan, Sindhudurg - 1772
4. Ramehwar, Sindhudurg - 1668
5. Rajapur, Ratnagiri - 1577
6. Amboli, Sindhudurg - 1548
7. Vengurla, Ratnagiri - 1535
8. Khamgaon, Raigad - 1526
 9. Kotwade, Ratnagiri - 1480
10. Guhagar, Ratnagiri - 1478
11. Satwali, Ratnagiri - 1470

Topper list from Vagaries Rainman PJ & 1 input from Vagarian Shiv

Yesterday saw Moderate to Heavy spells over North Kokan region. Rainfall details in map format:

Map by Vagarian Tejas & Data compiled by Vagarian Abhijit

Posted Thursday 28th Night: 

Mumbai:

Friday will see some on & off passing showers with a few heavy spells in some parts of City. Average rainfall expected around 25-40 mms.
Weekend also same trend to continue, with increasing from 1^st July. 

Pune: Passing light to moderate drizzles/showers next 3 days. Rainfall around 3-5 mms.


South West Monsoon has moved into capital Delhi & in Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand & Himachal Pradesh regions today. 

Ludhiana recorded 114 mms of rain in 9 hrs, Hissar 44 mms, Dehradun 19 mms, Delhi (Palam) 6 mms in 12hrs on Thursday.

The Northern and NW regions of India will get continuing monsoon showers/thundershowers next 3 days with some heavy spells possible around NCR over weekend.

Vagaries Rainman PJ sends us some interesting rainfall data from Karnataka ghat section.

Top rainfall (1700 mm & above) in Karnataka till 28.06.2018

========================

1. Kollur, Udupi - 2108 mm
2. Agumbe, Shimoga - 1973 mm
3. Hulikal, Shimoga - 1869 mm
4. Naladi, Kodagu - 1836 mm (Till 23rd June)
5. Mastikatte, Shimoga - 1808 mm
6. Bhagamandala, Kodagu - 1714 mm
7. Yadur, Shimoga - 1692 mm

Posted Monday 25th Night:
Mumbai:
Rain fury eased to some extent from Monday evening,
Tuesday will see occasional showers with a few heavy spells in some parts of City. Average rainfall expected around 35-45 mms. Windy conditions.
Wednesday same, but slightly reduced rainfall. 

South West Monsoon has moved into Gujarat region. Valsad 256 mms,  Baroda recorded 64 mms, and Surat 16 mms  of rain in 12 hrs on Monday.

The Northern and NW regions of India will get pre monsoon showers from 27th. Monsoon likely in Delhi region around 1st July.Day temperatures drop below 40c after the 28th June.

Ahmedabad: With monsoon advancing, Ahmadabad can expect showers on Tuesday with days getting cooler. 

We see some rainfall moving into the Sindh regions of Pakistan. Light showers next few days .
Karachi will be cloudy with light drizzles on Tuesday and Wednesday, with some increase in rainfall on Thursday. Monsoon expected to move in 5th July.

Posted Sunday Night:

As we had mentioned in yesterday's post, South Mumbai City got less rains today as compared to Saturday...17 mms on Sunday (127 mms on Saturday). While Scruz got more, 95 mms on Sunday as compared to 19 mms on Saturday (In 12 hrs). So Sunday average 56 mms.
Monday, Mumbai will see frequent continuation of showers.

Posted Saturday Night:( 23rd June)

Mumbai City received good rainfall on Saturday, with Colaba measuring 127 mms in last 12 hours. However, the Suburbs got much less, with the Scruz station seeing only 19 mms. Average= 73 mms between the 2 stations.
Sunday will see a slight let up in South Mumbai city, while Scruz may get  a bit more quantum wise as compared to Saturday. Average we may see 30-35 mms. Meaning rain spells of medium duration , and no prolonged spell.
But Monday sees a increase with frequent showers portending another rainy day, About 50 mms. Rainy conditions with >50 mms will continue in Mumbai into next week.

Pune: The original drizzles of Pune will be seen from Sunday thru next 5 days. Light to moderate drizzles and cool weather. 
Wet days ahead for Goa, with 45-65 mms of rain /day next 4 days. Means frequent showers.

The South West Monsoon has advanced into South Gujarat Region. also into most of Maharashtra.

As the Monsoon advances from 25th June into North Gujarat, Rajkot  Will get the first heavy showers on 26th/27th June. Ahmadabad will also get its first proper rains from 25th June.

The heat continues in Delhi, with last week of June (23rd) recording 44.8c . The first sprinkle of rain will be commencing from 25th/26th June. Monsoon expected by 1st July.

Monsoon proper expected to cover the country by 5th July. And then after 5th, around 6th/7th, Sindh (Pakistan) may start getting the monsoon showers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj2rtFqgtEI&t=8s    Mumbai Tak shows interview with Vagaries

Posted Thursday 21st Night.
Mumbai Rains to gradually increase from Friday. And will result in a wet Saturday/Sunday.

Monsoon Current in India to strengthen from 24th June. South West Monsoon to advance into South Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of M.P. on 25th June.

Rains increasing this weekend in Aurangabad. Slow increase and nominal rains in Akola.

South Kokan & Goa coastal region was lashed with massive Rains under the influence of UAC with offshore trough over same region.

Today ending 8.30am rainfall map below

 Last 2 days rainfall map over Sindhudurg Dist

Data compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak & Map by Vagarian Tejas Baxi

North Goa gets flooded with incessant rains. Below pic from Vagarian Rohit Aroskar

Jet Streams: A short Note on how to connect "Low" formations by reading the Jet Streams...Excerpts from Haby

The jet stream is a fragmented global wind flow that encircles the mid-latitudes in a wavelike pattern. Embedded within this global wind belt are jet streaks. A jet streak is a segment of the jet stream that has relatively high velocity winds. Other terms for a jet streak are a jet max and a jet surge. Jet streaks are caused by a large low-level temperature gradient, thus they are more intense in the cool season when the differential in temperature between the polar regions and tropical regions is largest. Jet streaks are analyzed near the 300-mb level. Find jet streaks on the UNISYS 300 mb panel below:
//weather.unisys.com/nam/300.php

It is a common error for beginning weather analysts to assume that the "entire" jet streak is moving at 160 knots. Think of a jet streak as an analogy to that of a thunderstorm. The thunderstorm moves at a certain speed (say 20 knots) while the winds within the updraft and downdraft of the thunderstorm move at a much faster speed (say 60 knots). The same is true for a jet streak. The jet streak itself may be moving at 25 knots while the winds moving through the core of the jet streak move at 160 knots. The wind accelerates as the air approaches the jet core and decelerates once leaving it.

A jet streak moves within the trough-ridge pattern at the same time it influences the amplification or de-amplification of the trough-ridge pattern. The example below is that of a jet streak de-amplifying a trough. A strong jet streak on the right side of a trough will cause that trough to de-amplify (lift).



If a strong jet streak is on the left side of a trough, the trough will amplify (dig) as shown below.

Mumbai rains today ..17 Jun 2018..

Mumbai received good showers today ( 50 to 100 mms during past 12 hrs)..The day remained cosy and breezy with day temps mostly between 25 c to 27 c ..

Scz reported min temp of 22 .5 c ..

Rain (in mms) at some stations..
12 hrs 8.30 am to 8.30 pm..

• Western suburbs ..Scz 49 , Andheri 54 , JVLR 72 , Marol 58 , BKC 54 , Goregaon 54 , Borivali 36
• Eastern suburbs ..Deonar 94 , Mulund 89 , Powai 76 , Bhandup 75 , Vikhroli 73 , Sion 65 , Kurla 60
• South Mumbai ..Colaba 58 , Dadar 63 , Byculla 55 , Wadala 53 , Mahim 50, Bombay Central 43
• Thane.. 87  • Navi Mumbai ..Nerul 45
• Outer townships.. Karjat 68 , Badlapur 47
Ratnagiri had 64 mms of rain in the 12 hrs Sunday...

Mumbai Scz has received 400 mms this June till now ( 10 rainy days)..

See Vagaries' Rainman Link updated regularly this Monsoon with astounding amounts...Link on Right side of Blog

Posted 14th Night (Thursday):

With the exception of the West Coast and the NE States where rainfall will be heavy, Moderate Rainfall will occur this weekend in Northern States of Kashmir, HP, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana (including Delhi) and North Pakistan.
Heavy showers likely along West Coast. Special heavy falls in Central/South Konkan regions. Disticts of Raigad and Ratnagiri get >100 mms.

The break monsoon conditions with " No Meaningful Rains " will cover the weekend in the rest of the sub continent.
Monsoon not entering Gujarat before 22nd June.

Mumbai: Friday: Partly cloudy with few showers. Rains increasing in frequency after night. Amount 10-15 mms.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy and windy with frequent showers. 
Rain amount average 25-35 mms for Saturday and  35-45 mms for Sunday. (Average). Rains may continue into Monday.
Pune: Cloudy with drizzle in parts of city.

New Delhi: Not much relief from the heat, but cloudy with light rains on Saturday and Sunday will clear the air.

Posted 13th June Wednesday Night:

New Delhi...Expected to be hot and warm nights..well, the lows as on 13th Morning:
S'Jung & Ridge 34.0c, Ayanagar 33.9c,  Palam 33.3c , Narela 33.2c....That's Hot ...not warm !!
In Haryana Bhiwani 34.2c, Gurgaon and Fardabad 34.0c, 
On 13th , the hottest place in India was in Punjab, Patiala at 46.2c.

The South West Monsoon has entered the "break" phase much ahead of schedule...and is a matter of study  as to why this is at such a pre-mature time !

Exceptional was the NE, as mentioned, where rainfall continues with Cherrapunji recording 212 mms and Silchar 115 mms in the last 24 hrs.

Mumbai: Thursday will be partly cloudy with a couple of passing showers in different parts of the city.
Friday evening will see a thunder shower, and relief from the current heat. 
Saturday will be cloudy with increasing showers,  occasional showers.

No change in Pune and Delhi weather next 2 days.
Monsoon not entering Gujarat before 20th June...
Weekend forecast tomorrow 

Posted 11th June Monday Night:
  The South West Monsoon has advanced as shown in the map below....

But, surprisingly, a trough extends from North Pakistan along the Himalayan foothills to the Low pressure in Tripura. Similar to the monsoon axis shifting North...with West winds dominating all over India

From 12th June- 17th June: Rainfall will decrease in the Monsoon Regions. No meaningful rains in the region. Exception may be South Konkan/Goa/Karnataka coast which will get moderate rains. No rains in the non monsoon regions.
Rains continue in the NE States.
Day temperatures will rise in NW and North India and Central India. 
Less rainfall in Marathwada, Madhya Mah. and Vidarbh also.

Mumbai: Will see decrease in rainfall from 12th -16th June. Few passing showers in parts of Mumbai for the next 5 days.Short spell showers.Day temperatures around 33/34c with high humidity.

Pune: Next 5 days willl be cloudy with light drizzles in parts.

New Delhi: Hot and dry during the week. Very warm nights...Special care to be taken from heat.
Kolkata: Heavy rains (Monsoon) till Wednesday, Dry from Thursday next 3/4 days, and getting very hot to 40c or more.
Jabalpur: No significant rains next 5 days, and grtting hot to 38/40c.

Vagaries in the Hindustan Times 

Hindustan Times 10.6.18 - Men Who Mastered The Art Of Weather

 

Rainfall ending in and around Mumbai on 10/06/2018 till 8:30am:-

Andheri:-140 mm

Bandra:-124 mm

Borivali(Near SGNP):-108 mm

Vagaries Club(Mahalaxmi):- 90 mm

Elphinston road rly station:-119 mm

Dadar:-

Dindoshi(Goregaon) :-153 mm

Grant Road:-131 mm, Iscon (Juhu):-113 mm

Kandivali(W):-87mm, Kurla(W):-66 mm

Lalbaug:-139 mm, Malad:-85 mm

Mahim:-148mm, Sakinaka:-97mm

Nariman Point:-156mm, Mumbai Central:-125.4mm

Domestic Airport(Santacruz):-105mm. Milan Subway:-105mm

Marol:-97mm, Wadala:-122mm

Sabdhurst Road Rly Station:-165mm, Santacruz Railway Station:-105mm

CST Railway station:-213mm. Dharavi:-148mm

Deonar:-110mm, Badlapur:-8mm.

And the Goa/South Konkan Segment where we had expected heavy rain in our estimate in cms:
yesterday Saturday Morning:

Malvan (dist Sindhudurg) 49, Vengurla - Imd Pt (dist Sindhudurg) 27, Bhiwandi (dist Thane) 21, Devgad (dist Sindhudurg) 19, Kudal (dist Sindhudurg) 17, Panjim - Imd Obsy (dist North Goa) 14, Tbia  Imd Part Time (dist Thane) 14, Murud (dist Raigad) 13, Panvel_agri (dist Raigad) 13, Sawantwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 13, Canacona (dist South Goa) 13, Mapusa (dist North Goa) 13, Guhagarh (dist Ratnagiri) 11, Khed (dist Ratnagiri) 11, Harnai Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 10, Ratnagiri - Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 10, Mormugao - Pmo Imd (dist South Goa) 10, Dabolim N.a.s.- Navy (dist South Goa) 10, Quepem (dist South Goa) 10,

Sunday Morning:

KONKAN & GOA     06/10/2018: Devgad (dist Sindhudurg) 28, Ratnagiri - Imd Obsy (dist Ratnagiri) 27, Murud (dist Raigad) 26, Rajapur (dist Ratnagiri) 21, Lanja (dist Ratnagiri) 19, Uran (dist Raigad) 18, Alibag - Imd Part Time (dist Raigad) 17, Kankavli (dist Sindhudurg) 17, Colaba - Imd Obsy (dist Mumbai City) 16, Guhagarh (dist Ratnagiri) 14, Kudal (dist Sindhudurg) 13, Vengurla - Imd Pt (dist Sindhudurg) 13, Vaibhavwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 13, Dodamarg (dist Sindhudurg) 12, Quepem (dist South Goa) 12, Sanguem (dist South Goa) 12, Panjim - Imd Obsy (dist North Goa) 11, Chiplun (dist Ratnagiri) 11, Sawantwadi (dist Sindhudurg) 11, Mormugao - Pmo Imd (dist South Goa) 11, Valpoi (dist North Goa) 11, Mhasla (dist Raigad) 11, Dabolim N.a.s.- Navy (dist South Goa) 10, Pernem (dist North Goa) 10, Santacruz - Imd Obsy (dist Mumbai Suburban) 10, Shriwardhan (dist Raigad) 10,

Posted Saturday Night:
Mumbai:
Saturday Night will see less rainfall with a few showers
Sunday will be less wet than what Saturday saw..but windy. Intermittent (not continuous) showers amounting to around 40-45 mms. 

For Mumbai when we say 40-50 mms, it should be taken as the average of the recording stations. Mumbai being 40 kms from North-South and 20 kms East-West, we have a varied rainfall at all places. So, average is taken by Vagaries to estimate. Like for Saturday (Daytime) the average was 110 mms.. 

Posted Saturday 9 th June evening:
Frequent showers in Mumbai city on Saturday, more so in the Central region and South.
Rainfall from 8.30 Saturday Morning -5.30 pm Saturday:
HindMata Cinema (Dadar) 98 mms, Vagarian Salil Pvt reading 90 mms, Mumbai Central 75 mms, Colaba (IMD) 49 mms Scruz (IMD) 26 mms.
Rainfall average ( 57 mms) in line with Vagaries' estimate for Saturday..

Night and Sunday forecast for Mumbai City at 11 pm IST 



Posted Saturday 9 th June Morning
South West Monsoon Advancing into Mumbai on Saturday 9th June...!
Friday weather was as per Vagaries' forecast, cloudy with rains increasing by night...
Saturday: Frequent showers amounting to 75/95 mms (Maintained forecast)
Sunday :Frequent showers in the day, decreasing rains by night and around 95-100 mms average rains...

South West Monsoon has advanced upto Goa on 8th June. The Northern Limit of the Monsoon runs Eastwards along the 16N line across the Peninsula. Goa/South Konkan can expect heavy rains this weekend.

Mumbai : There is no Panic situation for the weekend, though much hype is created !   The South West Monsoon will be advancing into Mumbai on Saturday 9th June. But it will be with the usual gusty winds and heavy rains, much of which Mumbai is familiar with. 200+ mms in 2 days  (Saturday/Sunday) will at the most cause local flooding. Much less than what Mumbai has seen before !

Posted Thursday Night 7th June

 Due to an unavoidable and beyond my control technical glitch, all the comments to the blog were stalled since last 20 days. I Have Not rejected any comment. Inconvenience is regretted.
All Comments are put up date wise..

Posted Thursday 7th June 1 pm IST:

For Mumbai : Brief and minor revision in the rain amounts.
 
Thursday: A few Thunder showers.
Friday: Cloudy and we see the rain intensity increasing from evening/night. 
Saturday: Rain thunder showers in the day with strong gusty winds. Rainfall amount expected from Saturday morning-Sunday morning 24 hrs around 75/95 mms.
Sunday : Intermittent rains and strong winds. Frequent showers will be heavy with flooding in some areas. Rains amount expected from Sunday-morning-Monday morning 24 hrs about 100/110 mms.

Goa may get very heavy rains upto 200-225 mms on Friday/Saturday.
 
Rainfall ending in and around Mumbai on 7/06/2018 till 8:30am:-
Andheri(W):-34mm
BKC:-15mm
Borivali(Near SGNP):-15mm
Vagaries Club(Mahalaxmi):-14mm
Dadar:-7mm, Goregaon:-37mm
Grant Road Railway Station:-21.5mm
Iscon (Juhu):-26mm
Kandivali(W):-19mm
Kurla(W):-17mm, Lalbaug:-8mm
Malad:-16mm,  Mulund Railway Stn:-15mm
Nariman Point:-23mm, Domestic Airport(Santacruz):-18mm
Sakinaka:-28mm, Wadala:-14mm
Santacruz Railway Station:-18mm
Sion Koliwada:-15.4mm, Deonar:-19mm
Dharavi:-12.5mm, Badlapur:-25mm

Posted 6th June Night:

The off shore trough along west coast has strengthened, and is getting active. The estimated Low (AS-4) may form earlier than the predicted date of 8th June. We already see a embedded "Formation " in the trough. See the wind chart of 6th June with isobars drawn on it...

 This Low will deepen in position and form a vortex/deep Low off the South Konkan coast.

These develpoments will be strengthened (along the west coast) as the isobars get concised and closer, very strong winds likely along Coastal Karnataka and Maharashtra coast  in 2 days. 
Under these conditions, and strong SW winds, South West Monsoon expected to move coastal Karnataka /Goa by 7th June Thursday.
SWM will also advance in Telengana and rest of Karnataka.

For Mumbai:

Thursday: Chance of a Thunder Shower in the evening in some parts.
Friday: Cloudy and we see the rain intensity increasing from evening/night.

Saturday: Rain thunder showers in the day with strong gusty winds. Rainfall amount expected from Saturday morning-Sunday morning 24 hrs around 75/95 mms.


Sunday : Intermittent rains and strong winds. Frequent showers will be heavy with flooding in some areas. Rains amount expected from Sunday-morning-Monday morning 24 hrs about 110/130  mms.

Pune will get heavy showers on Sunday...Sunday will be cool with the max at 26c...

South Konkan and Goa towns will receive 150-200 mms rains on Saturday.

Monitoring the situation, Another Note on the same will be put up here  on 7th June Thursday at 1 pm IST

Mumbai and Pune weather for this weekend coming on blog on Wednesday night 11pm.

Rainfall from Pre-Monsoon TS ending at 5/06/2018:-

Thane:-7mm, Belapur:-47mm

Kalyan:-28mm, Titwala:-25. 5mm

Murbad:-14mm, Bhiwandi:-28mm

Shahpur:-6. 5mm, Ambernath:-34mm

Khopoli:-21. 5mm, Uran:-42. 5mm

Mahad:-32. 5mm, Mangaon:-60mm

Roha:-2mm, Nagothane:-2mm

Poladpur:-7mm, Shriwardhan:-21mm

Guhagar:-3. 5mm, Mandangad:-28mm

Pawas:-60mm, Rajapur:-26mm

Jaitapur:-6. 3mm, Lanja:-23mm

Malwan:-15mm, Sawantwadi:-14mm

Amboli:-1mm, Kankavli:-2mm

Kudal:-50mm, Vasai:-3mm

Virar:-12mm, Sinnar:-24mm

Information compiled by Vagarians abhijit and Abhishek.Map by Tejas

Posted 4th June Night:

Pre Monsoon thunder showers lashed Mumbai and surroundings on Monday evening..

Some rainfall amounts from 7.30-9.00 pm IST Monday...from private vagarian readings and official readings:

Rainfall in and around Mumbai from Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm on 4/06/2018:-

Borivali near SGNP:-61mm

Dahisar:-52mm, 

Andheri:-47mm, Santacruz:-46mm,   Iscon Temple(Juhu) :-45mm

Kandivali Railway Station:-46mm, Dadar:-45mm, Goregaon:-40mm, Dharavi:-40mm

Malad:-36mm, BKC:-35mm, Byculla:-35.5mm, Karjat:-33mm

Bandra:-29mm,Badlapur:-28mm,   CST Railway Station:-25mm,  Elphinston Road:-21mm, 

Bhandup Complex:-17mm, Deonar:-19mm

Colaba:-9 mm.  

Posted 3rd June night...

South West Monsoon has moved up as a feeble current to just North of Mangalore along the West Coast..with the help of a weak Low off the coast as seen in the NMCC chart.

Last 24 hrs rainfall in Kerala (Over 30 mms): Kayamkulam 126 mms, Alapuzzha & Vaikom  84 mms, Ponnanai 81 mms, Kottayam 40 mms, Haripad 32 mms.
Now, Stagnancy along West coast for a few days, but SWM moving up onto rest of TN and South Peninsula. Core pressure in Seasonal Low has dropped to 994/996 mb today.


East West Shear zone is prevalent along 12N, and a feeble push along the upper air divergence is seen in that region.

Around 8th June, A Low pressure AS-4, is likely , or can possibly form, off the Mumbai coast at around 17N & 70E. The off shore trough is likely to get very strong, and this AS-4 my deepen and move NW. (Chances of forming medium)

Mumbai: 4th/5th 6th: Partly cloudy and hot at 33/34c. With chance of Thunder showers in the evening in some parts. Considerable increase in rainfall or Mumbai after 7th June. SWM may advance on 8th June.

Heavy Thundershowers expected in N.I. Karnatak, adjoining South Telengana and South Interior Mah in the next 3 days fro 4th June.

Some Showers expected in Central and Eastern Saurashtra.

Very hot conditions in NW India (Rajasthan). 48.2c at Ganganagar was the hottest in India. Kota saw a minimum of 32.7c.... and 50.0c at Sibbi hottest in Pakistan. Rohri in Pakistan saw a minimum of 32c.
Delhi NCR: Temperatures in the day likely to rise to 43/45c during the next 3/4 days. 

Posted Sunday morning 3rd June

Northern Mumbai and eastern outer townships received heavy thunder showers on Saturday 2nd evening and night.

Some rainfall amounts

Badlapur pvt 105mms,badlapur 85 mms, Mahableshwar 63 mms, Ambarnath 58 mms, vasai 40 mms, Talegaon 39 mms, Aurangabad 35mm Mumbai scruz 26mm, dombivali 16 mmsThane 14 mms. Pune11 mms, Lonavla 5 mms.

Mumbai :thunder showers expected on Sunday evening.

Posted 2nd June Afternoon:
Monsoon Advances into South Kerala...2nd June
Rainfall last 24 hrs: Nedumangad 71 mms, Thiru AP 54 mms, Kayamkulam  40 mms,Thiru City 31mms, Varkala 29 mms, Punalur 27 mms

Posted 1st June  Night:

1. Cross Equatorial WInds in the Southern Arabian Sea have strengthened considerably today, and at 30 knts, are favourable for advance of South West Monsoon. A major push is seen from the Somali coast .

 850 level winds just about tending to get favourable for Monsoon over Kerala..

2. Also , a hot day on 1st June , with Dadu & Moen Jo Daro in Pakistan recording 51c (Rounded), Nawabshah 50.5c, Jacobabad 50c , and Churu in India recording 49.7c, Ganganagar seeing 49.1c. 

We see the seasonal Low creating a very favourable gradient for Monsoon, with the core pressure likely to go down to 992-994 mb next 2 days. Consequently, the West Coast off shore trough is seen strengthening. 
LWD remains strong with the trough "head" at 998 mb.
The UAC off the Kerala coast extends to 700 hp, tilting with height.

3. Monsoon likely to advance into Kerala by 3rd June. Increase in rains in Kerala on Saturday.
4. Monsoon likely to advance into NE Sates by 3rd June.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. Chances of development of Thunder Clouds in the Eastern skies. 
The thunder showers may drift over certain parts of Mumbai by Saturday and Sunday evening.

Pune: Heavy Pre Monsoon Thunder showers lashed Pune and Mahableshwar on Friday 1st June..
Partly cloudy this weekend. Heavy thunder showers likely in Pune this weekend.

For regular updates see Vagaries Twitter handle...