A lot is being said about the failure of the south west Monsoon in the southern regions of the country especially in the sub divisional zone of South Interior Karnataka.

Comparisons are being made between different zones as if data from a single year or a few years can be then used to make long term predictions.

I therefore present here an analysis of long term data that has been taken from the year 1871. It is    up to the year 2014 and taken from the website of  Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. 

I have compared the sub divisional data of South Interior Karnataka (SIK) with that of Konkan and Goa(K&G).

    

The above chart represents the range of percentage variation between the monsoonal rainfall of SIK and K&G. This ranges from between 42% which was the highest in 1941 and 12% which was the lowest in 2003. (42% here means that SIK received 42% of what K&G received and therefore is a good number as against only 12% which it got in 2003)

I present a summary of some important observations;

The ten best years since 1871 are as follows..1941 (42%) , 1986 (36%), 1899 (34%), 2009 (33%), 1968 (32%), 1906 (32%), 1920(32%), 1889 (31%), 1912 (30%), 1882 (30%).

The ten worst years since 1871 are as follows..2003 (12%), 1934 (12%), 1976 (13%) , 1875 (13%), 1970 (14%), 1990 (14%) , 1955 (14%), 1937 (14%), 1884 (15%), 1963 (15%).

(All percentages are rounded off to nearest decimal)

The average for the entire period is marked with a pink line on the chart which is 21.78%. That means on an average SIK receives about 22% of the monsoonal rainfall of K&G.

Now lets look at the figures for 2015 and 2016 as provided by IMD. In 2015 SIK received 30% of the rainfall of K&G. And in 2016 this was about 15%. Admittedly 2016 was a bad year for the whole of southern peninsula (Coastal AP and Telengana were normal).

And here is the most important finding....

The average percentage rainfall (SIK vs K&G) for the period 2000 to 2014 is 21.27% !!!!

This is just 2% below the long term average of 21.78%,  well within the margin of error !!

And if we add the two IMD figures for 2015 and 2016 the average is 21.4% !!! This is less than 2% of the long term average.

So far this year up to 30th July 2017 the percentage is slightly over 12%. We wait for the final outcome in September.

Gurvinder

 

 

HIGHEST SW Monsoon RAINS  2017

Shirgaon .. 4843 mms , Lamaj ..4836 , Kasari ..4400

All in Maharashtra ghats (Sahyadri)

Click on the table below

 

 

Posted on Thursday Night:

BB-6, currently over Central Rajasthan, will move West near the Gujarat/Rajasthan border. 
Friday 28th:
Very heavy rains likely on  in the Palanpur-Abu regional patch.
Heavy rains likely in South & East Rajasthan (Udaipur), West M.P, and North Gujarat. 
Some regions of Kutch will get heavy showers.

Rains likely to increase in Delhi NCR from Monday.

2117 mms in Abu in last 5 days. 870  mms in Dantiwada and 700 mms in Palanpur last 5 days.
Heavy rains lashing Ahmadabad since last 3/4 days, with 189 mms in last 24 hrs ended Thursday morning.


Mumbai: Friday: Cloudy with showers. A few short but heavy showers expected. Rain amount about 20-25 mms. 
Saturday & Sunday will be partly cloudy with some showers in paarts of city. Rain amount about 15-20 mms on Saturday and slightly less on Sunday.

It was 12 years ago , when Mumbai was lashed and drenched with a record breaking rain event.....A day Mumbai will never forget
Refreshing the memories of the 26th July 2005 event of extremely heavy rains in Mumbai region with a Map of the rains around on that day....And How and Why it Happened...
24 HOUR RAINFALL EXACTLY 12 YEARS AGO...
See Mumbai Page

Posted Tuesday Night:
Mumbai: Lakes supplying water to Mumbai, all 7 lakes are just 139 Mcum short of their fullest levels. The total storage today stands at approximately 1308 Mcum (90% full). At the current rate of supply , we have approximately 327 days of supply. That is approximately upto 25th June 2018.(Lake Info credit Vagarian Jayesh Mehta)

Rainfall intensity likely to increase around Mumbai region from Thursday 27th July.

BB-5 and BB-6 persist..though we see BB-5 weakening now. 
Some of the heavy rainfall from BB-5 is mentioned in the post below...
and rainfall from BB-6 in G.West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar i mms :  Bankura 226, Panchet 191, Cherrapunji 181, Tenughat 172, Bankura CWC 150, Jamshedpur 129, Lunglei 117, Chenari 102, Aurangabad 87, Tensa 86, Bishalgarh 84, Panagarh AP 73, Rairangpur 65, Singla Bazar 63, Passighat 62, Dehri 56.

Mt. Abu: 141 mms on 23rd July, 733 on 24th July and 734 mms on 25th July ..totalling to 1608 mms in 3 days  ! The annual rainfall of many a places in India, or more than the annual rainfall ! The season's total for Mt. Abu till date is 2401 mms, which shows an excess of 1860 mms !

The comments say it all...

Abu record annual rain was in 1944: 3991 mms

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Mount Abu broken it's own record of all time highest rainfall !

Mount Abu records 773 mm in last 24 hours. Many stations break their all time high in Rajasthan. North Gujarat too is getting very heavy rainfall.

=====================
One hell of rains have fallen in the Desert Region of Rajasthan and the north Gujarat belt and pounding continues. Mount Abu Tehsil and Mount Abu in Rajastan has got staggering 773 mm and 733 mm with in last 24 hours. With this, Mount Abu broke its all time high rainfall of 653 mm recorded on 8th September, 1992,

Many stations in rajasthan has got nearly 50% of their annual rainfall in a day. North Gujarat too battered with Danitwada recording 342 mm rainfall, Palanpur 255 mm and Deesa 248 mm.

Rainfall in Rajasthan in mm ending 8.30 am on 24.07.2017
================
Mount Abu Tehsil, Sirohi dt - 773 
Mount Abu, Sirohi dt - 733 
Angore, Sirohi dt - 445
Reodar, Sirohi dt - 403 
Sirohi, Sirohi dt - 380
Pindwara, Sirohi dt - 303
Aburoad, Sirohi dt - 266
West Banas, Sirohi dt - 261
Sei Dam, Udaipur dt - 260 
Bhinmal, Jalore dt - 257 
Jawai Dam, Pali dt - 240 
Sumerpur, Pali dt - 230 
Rani, Pali dt - 187 
Sheoganj, Sirohi dt - 175
Kotra, Udaipur dt - 170 
Kotra, Udaipur dt - 167 
Mithri, Pali dt - 165 
Babalwara, Udaipur dt - 150 
 Ogna, Udaipur dt -143 
Sanchore, Jalore dt - 138 
Sayala, Jalore dt - 137 
Bali, Pali dt - 137 
Dantiwara, Pali dt - 137 
Kot, Pali dt - 135 
Somkagdar, Udaipur dt - 135 
Desuri, Pali dt - 132 
Kherwara, Udaipur dt - 132 
Kherwara, Udaipur dt - 132
Dantaband, Sirohi dt - 131
Phutiya, Pali dt - 124 
Pali, Pali dt - 122 
Kana, Pali dt - 115 
Marwarr Junction, Pali dt - 114 
Salumbar, Udaipur dt - 114 
Salumbar, Udaipur dt - 114 
Beawar, Ajmer dt - 113 
Jaisamand, Udaipur dt - 113 
Muthana, Pali dt - 112 
Beawar, Ajmer dt - 111 
Sadri, Pali dt - 110 
Pratapgarh, Pratapgarh dt - 110 
Jhadol, Udaipur dt - 105 
Jhadol, Udaipur dt - 105 
Rishabdev, Udaipur dt - 102 
Deogarh Rajsamand dt - 101 
Wana, Cheetal dt - 100

Flood water in Rajasthan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q22NyDoMzXE

(Rainfall data Courtesy - Vagaries Rainman/ Tamil Nadu Weatherman - PJ)

As per hinted by various global models of extreme heavy rain event likely on Guj/Raj border by sticky system.. So as per the estimates, BB-5 has dumped historic rain in Mount Abu of S.Rajasthan yesterday !!

Mount Abu Tehsil recorded massive 773 mms & Mount Abu IMD 733 mms rainfall ending 8.30am today dated 24-07-2017 in past 24hrs !!

Above Source: IMD Pune and rainfall in cms


With this Mount abu broken it's own record of 653 mms which was recorded on 8th Sep 1992 !!

Some 500 mms+ extreme event in 24 hrs period for year 2017 till today: 

Mount Abu,Rajasthan 773 mms on 24 July 2017
Cherrapunji,Meghalaya 638 mms on 17 June 2017
Chamorshi(Gadchiroli),Maharahstra 519 mms on 19 July 2017


Also there have been 12 instances of around 400 mms or more daily rainfall events this monsoon till now


North Konkan .. 3 instances (within a week) , Cherrapunji ..2 instances , Saurashtra .. 2 instances , South Gujarat .. 1 instance , Maharashtra western ghats .. 1 instance ,  Orissa .. 1 instance , Vidarbha .. 1 instance, South Rajasthan ..1 instance

Posted Sunday 23rd Night:

A brief Report: BB-5 has moved Westwards towards Kutch thru South Rajasthan on Sunday evening. Expected to move West and precipitate heavy showers on Southern Rajasthan, Gujarat Region ( Barring Saurashtra and Kutch) and some parts of Southern Sindh in next 24 hrs from Sunday evening. 
Saurashtra may escape the major brunt of rains, while Kutch will see isolated heavy falls on Monday. 
Rain patch may persist on Tuesday in Southern Rajasthan for a day into Wednesday.
Strength and rains intensity from BB-5 expected to decrease from Tuesday evening. 
Ahmadabad: Occasional heavy showers on Sunday night and thru Monday afternoon. Around 50-70 mms rains expected in the 24 hrs from Sunday night to Monday night. Rains decreasing from Tuesday.
Karachi will be cloudy with some showers on Monday and Tuesday. A heavy shower expected in some parts of city on Monday.
BB-6 has formed in the North Bay located currently over G. West Bengal.Heavy rainfall expected in G.West Bengal and Jharkhand on Monday.

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy with sunny spells. Interrupted by few showers, and one or two may be heavy. But reduced rainfall will bring around 10-12 mms per day. Very windy with SW winds blowing at 35-40 kmph along the sea fronts.
We wait for the tracking of BB-6, and recovery of rains over Mumbai by Friday.
Kolkata: Frequent heavy showers expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Delhi NCR: No meaningful increase and pick up in rains expected this week till Thursday.

Indore: Cloudy with Occasional showers on Monday and Tuesday, around 15-25 mms per day expected.

Marathwada sees no major or meaningful increase in rainfall this week.
Yes... I have been very irregular in my postings on this blog..here at Vagaries. I appreciate and thank all those who showed concern about my absence.
.Actually i have not studied and gone thru the detailed weather since last 8 days...so cannot give my views without seeing in depth...have been away for some time. I do see some heavy rains in North Gujarat and Southern Rajasthan on Monday, but according to me reducing on Tuesday..

dynamic SOUTH WEST MONSOON

[ Stay tuned ..updated 23 Jul 2017 ]

There have been 11 instances of around 400 mms or more daily rainfall events this monsoon till now

North Konkan .. 3 instances (within a week) , Cherrapunji ..2 instances , Saurashtra .. 2 instances , South Gujarat .. 1 instance , Maharashtra western ghats .. 1 instance ,  Orissa .. 1 instance , Vidarbha .. 1 instance

Update .. Highest Rainfall stations of Maha / Kar western ghats 

Highest rainfall station in Mumbai city .. Vihar .. 2210 mms (1 Jun to 23 Jul)

Vagaries exclusive update .. State wise highest rainfall ( 1 Jun to 23 Jul ) 

..South west monsoon coverage is a team effort ( special thanks to Abhijit , Shivkumar ) at Vagaries ..Be a part of the team , by adding monsoon information you have in the comments sections..



Posted Monday Night:
BB-5 has formed as we mentioned, and is likely to become a depression. Situated off the North A.P. coast, it will track Westwards as mentioned.

Had mentioned in the comments that there would be a decrease in rains on Monday , and to revive on Tuesday, but BB-5 has activated the trough off North Konkan a day ahead of schedule...

Against the expectations, Mumbai City and Suburbs received heavy rains on Monday...With Scruz receiving the first 100 of the season...
In 12 hrs from 8.30 am-8.30 pm on Monday:
Scruz recorded 127 mms, Colaba  49 mms.
Some 12 hrs rainfall in various parts of Mumbai: Andheri 108 mms, BKC 78 mms, Bandra 73 mms, CST 74 mms, Chembur 81 mms, Dadar E 91 mms, Ghatkopar 95 mms, Goregaon 73 mms, Vikhroli 97 mms, Kurla 101 mms.
Pune recorded 10 mms with a maximum temperature was 25.4c on Monday.
Mumbai: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see intermittent and frequent showers in Mumbai City and Suburbs. Nearly consistent rains brings back the monsoonish atmosphere.
Heavy showers expected again on Monday night.
Around 70-90 mms (Average) expected on Tuesday ( after 8.30 am) and 50-70 mms on Wednesday/Thursday.


The Highest totals in Maharastra this season till 17th July: Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.
Shirgaon 3226 mms, Lamaj 2847 mms, Kesari (Kolhapur) 2710 mms, Davdi Camp (Mulshi) 2478 mms, Amboli 2440 mms, Walvan 2421 mms, Kitwade 2360 mms, Matheran 2318 mms, Lonavla 2265 mms, Mahableshwar 2239 mms, Bhimashankar 2228 mms, Patgaon 2127 mms, Navaja 2143 mms, Gajapur 2100 mms, Tapola 2097 mms.

Position of Storage in Lakes supplying water to Mumbai as on 17th: Information from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
With Modak Sagar overflowing, the gates of Middle Vaitarna were opened, otherwise it would have also overflowed. 

Total storage is at 67 % at 987 Mcum. With a daily consumption of about 4 Mcum, Mumbai has about 245 days of water available: That is upto about 15th March 2018.

On Tuesday, 18th, BB-5 precipitate heavy Rains in Coastal A.P, Chattisgarh and Telengana.Rains likely in Konkan and Goa.
Wednesday will bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, Telengana, parts of Marathwada, Vidharbh, East MP and Konkan .
Nagpur will get heavy showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
Akola region will get moderate showers upto 15-20 mms per day in the next 3 days.

Posted Saturday Night:

Massive amounts of rainfall was recorded in Gujarat. Rain amounts as on Saturday 15th Morning:
Saurashtra: Chotilla 450 mms, Rajkot 348 mms, Tankara 340 mms, Kaprada 260 mms, Muli 160 mms, Padhari 159 mms,  Kapadvanj 144 mms, Posina 137 mms,
Danta 130 mms.
As mentioned, the rains have shifted to Kutch, with Bhuj getting 92 mms in the 9 hrs ended 5.30 pm on Saturday.
Decrease in rainfall in Gujarat Region and Saurashtra on Sunday.

A UAC/Low moves into Northern Coastal A.P. on Monday.  Heavy rains expected in Northern A.P. on Monday.The system will move Westwards into Telengana.

Mumbai Scruz recieved 68 mms and Colaba 24 mms till 8.30 am Saturday. In the day on Saturdfay, Scruz recieved another 69 mms and Colaba 7 mms in the next 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm Saturday.
Expecting intermittent showers on Sunday, around 35-40 mms . Reduction in rainfall on Monday.

Just for Information, Scruz total from 1st June till date is 812 mms, Colaba 659 mms. Mahableshwar total is 2034 mms, Mathran 2118 mms, Lonavla 1959 mms and Thane 1263 mms.

Posted Thursday Night:
Writing and updating this blog after 6 days:

There is a delay since the last posting, so we take a leap from last reporting into the current scenario:
1. The Monsoon axis has moved Southwards as expected after the 11th.
2. Refering to the last post, the Low formed in the Northern Bay as we mentioned and is now a Well Marked Low over the NW parts of M.P. Likely to move  Westwards. May not strengthen significantly.
3.  The west coast off shore trough is strengthening.

Heavy Rains expected next 2 days: Gujarat Region, Northern parts of Saurashtra . Rainfall around 150- 200 mms expected. 
Northern Maharshtra also will get heavy rains.
Cool days with showers expected in Nasik this weekend, around 10-20 mms per day.
Ahmadabad: Heavy showers on Friday and Saturday accumulating about 100-125 mms in 2 days.
Indore : After a cool Thursday at 24.5c, with 17 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm, some showers expected on Friday.

Sunday, rainfall moves into Kutch and coastal Sindh.
Karachi can expect Showers on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Mumbai: Friday and Saturday will have cloudy skies with intermittent/frequent rain showers. Showers in the day, and some heavy, will bring around 50-60 mms per day.
Sunday will also be cloudy with occasional showers bringing around 40-50 mms.
Pune: Pune had good frequent showers on Thursday, with some regions measuring upto 25 mms till 10 pm IST.
Cloudy cool weekend. Showers on Saturday, with decreasing intensity by Sunday.

Posted Friday 7th Night:
1. The monsoon axis which has shifted North to the Himalayan foothills has created a sort of weakening of rains in the West, North West (India), Peninsula and Central India regions. As a result, the core low pressure of the seasonal Low in the Pakistan region has also moved North. This has resulted in the weakening of the West coast off shore trough. However, rains in Uttarakhand, U.P, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal continues.

2. The axis moves slightly Southwards from current position around 10th of this Month. A Low pressure may form in the Northern Bay around 12th.

3. As the Axis moves South, the of shore trough along the West coast may strengthen after the 11th. 

Mumbai, on Saturday and Sunday, will be partly cloudy with few showers. Around 5-10 mms per day. As of now, it seems that Monsoon will strengthen in Mumbai after Tuesday 11th July.

Hot day for Delhi NCR on Saturday and Sunday.

Almost dry weekend for Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West M.P, Interior Maharashtra & Karnatak and Tamil Nadu.
Almost dry in Sindh regions of Pakistan. 
Karachi partly cloudy with light rain in some parts this Saturday/Sunday.

Kolkata had good rain showers again on Friday, with DumDum recording 57 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.

 Maps compiled by Vagarian Tejas. Data of Ghats and Interior from Vagarian Abhijit

Posted Thursday Night:

Rainfall amounts from the regions we expected:
Some heavy rainfall amounts from (in cms) U.P. in last 24 hrs:
SARDANAGAR 16, SAMBHAL 12, CHURK 11, PHOOLPUR ALB 10, HANDIA 10, GHORAWAL 10, DUDHI 8

Wednesday  Lucknow (U.P.) had good showers amounting to 36 mms. 
From Bihar in cms:KATORIA, 9, UDAI KISHANGANJ 8, TAIBPUR 8, JHANJHARPUR 7, KISHANGANJ 7, BASUA 7
Gaya (Bihar) measured 107 mms upto Wednesday morning.
Kolkata had heavy showers Thursday amounting to 57 mms in 12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST. 

Heavy rains expected in Uttarakhand this weekend.
This weekend, almost dry weather expected in Punjab, Rajasthan, West M.P, Gujarat, Vidharbh and Marathwada (Maharashtra).

Mumbai: Mumbai Colaba received heavy showers on Thursday evening, amounting to 12 mms till 8.30 pm.
After a few passing showers on Friday 7th, Mumbai can see a decrease in rains on Saturday and Sunday. Weekend will be partly cloudy.  Few showers in parts of city will measure 5-10 mms.

Pune : Partly cloudy but days crossing 30c next few days. Light rains in parts of city. Around 5 mms expected on Sunday.

Posted on Tuesday Night:

Estimate for Wednesday 5th July and Thursday 6th July:
1. Due to trough in the Northern Plains, Heavy rains likely on Wednesday and Thursday in U.P, Bihar, Sikkim and Sub Himalayan W.Bengal and NE States. 
Some places in S.I. Karnataka can receive heavy rains also. 
Expect showers in parts of Bangalore on Wednesday and Thursday evening.

All Estimates of 5th and 6th July:
2. Not much  rains in Saurashtra next 2 days. No meaningful increase in Marathwada and Vidharbh.
Very light isolated showers in parts of Ahmadabad. Almost dry. 
Not much rains in Indore.

3. Good chance of a thunder shower in Kolkata on Wednesday. Thursday will also see a heavy thunder shower.

4. Light to moderate showers in Delhi NCR next two days, rainfall 7-10 mms.

5. Mumbai: Wednesday will be cloudy with a few periods of sun . Some occasional showers. A few passing showers may be sharp and heavy. Around 15-20 mms expected. For Thursday, Mumbai may be cloudy with intermittent showers, may be accompanied by thunder. An occasional shower may be heavy. Around 25-30 mms expected.
Outer townships may be partly cloudy get showers which may not be persistent , some heavy and accompanied by thunder. Showers may show a bit of an increase in frequency on Thursday.


6. Karachi: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of Karachi. (Next 2 days estimate). Almost dry weather in Sindh.

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See Mumbai Page : Map of Stations crossing 100 cms in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Compiled by Vagarian Tejas from Data provided by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.

See Update on Mumbai Page:
> Latest Position of Storage in Mumbai Lakes...From Vagarian Jayesh Mehta
> June Rainfall for Maharashtra Ghat Regions
> June rainfall for Mumbai Region
> June rainfall for Maharashtra and Goa Coastal Places...Maps compiled by Vagarian Tejas from data sent by Vagarians