Monday, December 29, 2008
Central regions like M.P.,Gujarat and Maharashtra too have seen a drop, with Nasik recording 6c and Pune 8.7c on the 29th.
As predicted, the south too has started witnessing a drop in night temperatures.
The night temperatures can drop further by 2/3c in the next 2 days, specially in the north and north-west and Gujarat.
Also, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all computer models which have been used. They models are also used, every year, to predict a Global Warming . Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. Canada hade it’s entire country blanketed in snow for Christmas, the first time that has happened since 1971.
After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.
Records for the U.S. for the period 10 Dec -20 Dec 2008;
Total Records: 3733, Rainfall: 952, Snowfall: 768, Low Temperatures: 326, Lowest Max Temperatures: 1154
Europe is also bracing up for a harsh winter.
Earliar this year,on May 21, “Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts” , reported that the entire Alpine “winter sports industry” could soon “grind to a halt for lack of snow”. On December 19, headed “The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation” , reported that this winter’s Alpine snowfalls “look set to beat all records by New Year’s
Italy had to deal with the Gore Effect, resulting in record snow…in autumn.
And U.K., had its earliast snows and cold in a long time.
Siberia is dealing with -60°C. That’s without windchill. The record cold there is -69°C.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
The rainy season in Mozambique usually begins in October, with the heaviest rains falling between December and March, but this year, there is still no sign of the annual heavy rains.The ongoing drought conditions in central and southern Mozambique are prompting concern for insufficient water resources .
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The W.D. mentioned moved eastwards into India, and formed a secondary low,aloft, at 25N. As a result,there was some rainfall in the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, and some light rain in Mumbai on Friday/Saturday.The secondary low has attracted moisture clouds from the arabian Sea towards it.
But the W.D. has brought good rain/snow in the northern hills,especially in H.P.
Higher reaches in the upper Manali region experienced a fresh spell of snowfall while the lower parts of the areas received widespread rain.The Rohtang pass, gateway to Lahaul-Spiti district, including Pir Panjal ranges, Bhrighu ski slopes, Marhi meadows, Gulaba, Hamta ski slopes and Chanderkhani Pass also received fresh snowfall.
Higher reaches in Kullu had snowfall and the lower region had rains on Friday. Peaks of Mattikochhar, Mout Nag, Phungni Devi and Bijli Mahadev experienced snow today. The minimum temperature recorded at Bhuntar remained 2.7°C.
The IMD streamline map shows the winds turning to the north-south direction today. Hence, as a result, with the moving away of the current W.D.,we may expect the night and day temperatures to drop substantially in the northern states,after Tuesday. The minimums will also drop by 4-5c in the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra from Tuesday. Hence, the lows in Pune may go down to 10c, and in Mumbai 15c after Tuesday. Cities in Gujarat may see a low of 9-10c also.
Meanwhile, I do not see any more systems coming from the bay now.The ICTZ is now seen moving southwards. This is established by the fact that now 2 cyclones have been formed in the southern hemisphere in the last 3 days.Hence, the rain bearing systems bringing rain to T.N. cease.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Topsy Turvy and unusual weather news from Saurashtra today(Monday). Ashokbhai from Rajkot gave reports of thunder and traces of rain in Rajkot and from several places in the region.
A stream of clouds is seen pushing into the region from the Arabian Sea into M.P.
Also,a low pressure area is persistant in the Arabian Sea at 9N and 62E. This is surely going to keep winter away from the central, western and southern Indian regions for another few days. Temperatures in Gujarat and Maharashtra are 7c above normal !!
The approaching W.D. is expected to push moisture,and rain,into western Gujarat, and Kutch, alonwith Rajasthan on Tuesady thru Thursday.The W.D. will precipitate fair amounts of rain/snow all along the norhtern regions on Wednessday/Thursday.
An appraoching easterly trough, embedded in the ITCZ,can produce rain in the coastal and interiors of T.N. and spill some rain into south Karnataka and east Kerala during the next 2 days.Contrary to my earliar judgement, the monsoon rain spell in the south of the current season is extended by atleast 8 to 10 days.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
PLEASE NOTE ALL MAPS ARE UPLOADED AND PLACED IN THE BEGINING ONLY DUE TO SOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS IN UPLOADING
Dubai had been drenched last week by unusual rains and hailstorms last week as a result of the W.D.system .The system travelling thru the Emirates region,Dubai had a hailstorm which covered many regions and parts of the city with a white carpet of hail. A welcome drop in temperatures was witnessed, with the minimum going down in the region of 15c. Subsequently, the W.D. has passed, and dry weather is now forecasted with the temperatures in the range of 26-18c nthis week.
But, due to the continuous chain of sytems in the south,(the latest defiantly crossing into the Arabian Sea), most of India south of Kashmir, is devoid of any meaningful winter. The anomaly map of the first week of December shows the entire country in the "above normal" range, with a "tongue" of red piercing south in the centre.No real drop in temperatures is recorded as yet this year, and the IMD minimum temperature anomaly shows the nights as high as 7c above in some regions.Even the days are high as seen in the map.
And Mumbai...going thru an extreme heat wave and hot December conditions. The diagram above shows the Mumbai temperatures in a continuous "red" phase, and Pune, with a "fat" red blob in the last 15 days.The above normal days shown in the Pune diagram is very unusual.
What now? When do we get our winter and when will it cool down? Only after the last remnants of the southern systems vanish. As on today, a strip of clouding has again spread over the Maharashtra region, making it stuffy and hot.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
The heat is certainly being felt in Mumbai ! Much against expectations and forecasts, a heat wave has spraed along the coast of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The IMD map of the maximum temperatures on the 5th. clearly indiactes the "red" regions of extreme heat! It is December, and the maximum day temperatures along the coast of Maharashtra and all of Gujarat is around 35-36c, much above the normal!
The highest at Mumbai on the 5th. was the highest in Asia too, at 37.7c. Incidently, this is the highest ever recorded at Santa Cruz in December!In Asia, Makkah was next at 37c!The list shows the top hottest places in Asia on the 5th.
Mumbai / Santacruz Airport (India) 38°
Makkah (Saudi Arabia) 37°
Goa / Panjim Airport (India) 36°
Surat (India) 36°
Rajkot (India) 36°
Ratnagiri (India) 36.
On the 5th,Mumbai Colaba was 36.4c, and the highest everfor December at Colaba was only marginally higher at 36.6c.
This heat has belied all forecasts by any model or forecasting module.
Meanwhile, the deep depression in the bay was today,6th, at 450kms east of Sri Lanka.At this time,a north-westward drift with some northward component is indicated.Some GFS models, however, seems to "loose" 07B as if it were dissipating the system.
I feel,the system is expected to cross the coast of T.N. and Puducherry, just skirting the Lanka coast.Very heavy rains are expecetd in the next 2/3 days.
The system, with a core pressure at 996mb, has been numbered at 07B, and as it moves inland, heavy rains are forecasted for T.N. and Kerala.Inland,the system will be heading towards Cochin.Hence, rains will be restricted to T.N. and Kerala.
But,Sri Lanka is getting very heavy raiansince the 4th.due to 07B.The intensity of this rainfall is unusual for Sri Lanka at this time of year. Heavy rain is normally associated with the S.W. Monsoon, which runs from June until October, often leading to widespread floods. From December through February the country experiences drier weather, with clear skies and little rain
As mentioned in the last blog, the approaching W.D. is expected over north India by the 6th. and pulling of moisture and rain clouds is possible from the Arabian Sea. Hence, some rain on the 7th. can be expected in Rajasthan and parts of western Saurshtra and Kutch.Nothern plains will get their winter rains from the 6th. for a couple of days.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Taking a review of the November weather, it seems winter has eluded most of the regions of the sub continent for the month.During the month of November, the temperatures hav been upto 3c above normal in most of North India, Western regions of India, and in the Central areas. Rest has been normal, except, as the above map shows, a small patch of below normal area in the south (due to heavy rains).
In spite of 2/3 W.Ds,in the latter half of November,and most of Kashmir region getting its first early snows,the temperatures rose back to the near normal levels on the passing of the W.D.The minimum temperatures in the plains,that is Punjab and Haryana regions,are around the 8-10c levels,a little above normal, and Delhi is slightly above normal at 25-26c in the day.-The Kashmir region has shown signs of dropping night temperatures in the first 2 days of December-Srinagar has dipped to -2c and Leh to -12c !
Another W.D. is expected to cross north India from the 5th. With a trough (aloft) extending southwards from the W.D., some rains can be expected along the west Gujarat coast due to this on the 5/6th.Also, the northern states should get moderate rains from the 5/6th.
In central India, and Maharashtra/Gujarat, the incursion of moisture from cyclone Nisha, and 2 depressions from the bay moving inland,and resurfacing in the Arabian Sea, has resulted in light to medium rains. Some stations, like Pune airport recieved heavy rain of 6cms of rain on the last day of the month.Many stations in Maharashtra had daily rains between 3-10mms between the 23rd. and 30th. of November. Mumbai too has had cloudy and muggy weather, with light drizzles in the last week. Naturally, this prevented the temperatures from rising, and created a "heat Wave" in the Konkan region in the last week of the month. Mumbai was unsually hot in November, with the days at 36c almost throughout the last 2 weeks of the month.
As a result of these sytems from the bay, the south was dumped with good rains.The north-east monsoon suddenly got reactivated and the deficit was covered . With another low now ready in the south bay,as on the 3rd., more rains are expected in the southern most regions of T.N. and Kerala upto the 7th. A combination of an easterly wave and a low presuure system is expected to cross the south T.N. coast around the 5th. Heavy rains can commence in the exterem south after the 5th.for a couple of days.
This could be the last spell of rains of the current season for the south.
Looking at the above scenario, I expect,wintry condtions to resume in the north from the first week of December.The central regions, that is, M.P,Maharashtra and Gujarat can expect temperatures to start falling,finally, around the end of the first week.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
The easterly wave from the bay has produced good amounts of rain in the southern peninsula of India in the last 5/6 days, and as expected, the embedded low, still holds on to a forecast by models for the formation of a low in the southern bay around the 25th.The rains will continue till the approaching system pours more rain in the regions it covers.
The cloudiness in the south and prevailing south-easterlies,has resulted in a "heat wave in November" along the west coast of India, especially the northern parts including Mumbai.Mumbai, is unusually warm and hot. The highs in Mumbai during the last two days is hovering around 36c.while, for the information, the highest ever in November for Mumbai is 37.4c Ratnagiri, at 37c on the 22nd., was the hottest spot in Asia !!Meanwhile, normal hotspots like Dubai was 31c and other spots in the gulf were around 31-33c. THe IMD map above shows the heat wave along the northern west coast.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Tropical Cyclone 05B, or Khai Muk, moved inland through A.P. and quickly moved westwards towards South Maharashtra, and, as the IMD streamline image above shows, has now entered the Arabian Sea as a low pressure. But not much should be expected from this weak system now, as it will dissolve in the "not so warm" waters of the sea.
Maharashtra did get its expected share of scattered rains. Nanded got 10mms and Mahableshwar recieved 15mms,suddenly cooling the hill station down to a max. of 18.6c, while several other towns in Maratwada and south Maharashtra, including Goa and Konkan had rains between 3-8mms.Mimbai had a light drizzle on Tuesday night.
Now, due to the sudden incursion of moisture, the sporadic rains, though weak, will continue in interior Maharashtra till Friday, after which, the dry spell of winter will resume in the region.
A strongish easterly wave off the T.N. coast (seen in the steamline map) is expected to bring fairly good rains in coastal and inland T.N., south coastal A.P.from the 19th. The E.Wave will have a low embedded in it, which should increase the easterly current (and rains) around the 20th.
Some "monsoon like " conditions will be seen in the south now. Contiunity of fairly good rains are expected in these regions till the 25th.
Tropical depression Noul hit southeastern Vietnam on Monday, bringing heavy rains and flooding, in the tenth storm to hit the country this year.The storm, which was downgraded from a tropical cyclone as it made landfall near the coastal city of Nha Trang.
Noul has been weakening rapidly over land during the past day, and is forecast to dissipate fully over Cambodia later today, before emerging in the Gulf of Thailand.
Around the 25th.ECMRWF has predicted the formation of a depression in south bay. This is the maturing of the embedded low in the E.Wave.It is forecasted the depression can strengthen into a deep depression, or even a cyclone by the 27th.
Meanwhile, winter has made its mark in the northern sub continent. The minimum temperatures have gone down to -10c in Leh, and -8c in Quetta, with several stations in north Kashmir seeing -2c to -5c.The plains of Punjab are now in 8c range.
With another W.D. approaching the extreme north,more rain/snow can be expected in the higher reaches in a day or two.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Writing after 7 days, I was waiting for the low I mentioned in my prevoius blog, to appear. Well, it has certainly "appeared"' and swiftly swung into action, and has already become Tropical Cyclone 05B. As on 14th. night, TC05B was at 225NM north-eastof Chennai. Central core pressure is at 989mb,and expected to strenghten further.Now,it will steer clear of the ridge,to cross the Andhra coast near Vijaywada by the night of the 15th.Naturally, very heavy rains and very squally weather is to be expected off the Andhra coast today and tomorrow. The effect on the north Tamil Nadu coast will also be felt in the form of heavy rains in Chennai on the 15th./16th.
Interior A.P. will be affected the most,and some coastal towns in A.P.expected to record upto 200mms of rain in 24hrs.
Now,as the system moves inland, some interesting rainfall pattern is expected. After the system has covered the whole of A.P. with rains, Marathwada and north interior Karnatak can get some rains by the 17th. South Maharashtra, including Pune and Mahableshwar, can recieve rains around the 17th./18th and the "northern" ghats, meaning Lonavla, can recieve rains on the 18th. But the system will fizzle out quickly after moving inland, hence the Maharashtra rains will last only for a day or two.Mumbai has a 50-50 chance of some thunder cloud drifting over on the 18th.
In the northern regions, the W.D.mentioned has poured good rains/snow in Kashmir, and northern areas of Pakistan. Srinagar had 35mms of its first snow this season, with the day temperature not rising above 1.6c on the 14th.And also, in its moving away, a cold front has covered the "rear' of the W.D. Lows of -8 to -9c have been recorded in western regions of Pakistan on 14th.
Hence, I certainly expect a cold wave over Kashmir, H.P., Punjab, north Rajasthan,Delhi and Haryana after the 16th.In Delhi, minimum temperatures can go down to 10c, and places in Punjab will see 8c in the next few nights.
Friday, November 07, 2008
No rains period continues in the entire sub continent region. The reason is a dominant "high" in the 500-700hpa heights, stagnant over the north-west India areas. Resultantly, there is above normal warmth over the region, with places in Sindh and rajasthan recording upto 37c, in 2nd. week of November !
Nights are just about getting a bit cool, with the plains in Pakistan recording lows in the 8-10c range, and the northern plains of India recording between 10-12c, still, above normal..However, the southern half of India remains around normal. Srinagar reached 1.9c yesterday(6th.) and Leh was at -5c.Both are around normal.
Clearly seen in the IMD maps above.
We now have to look out for: - The "high" to shift eastwards, toenable some rain to commence in the south.
- The WD to move eastwards along the Kashmir region to produce some rain/snow over the northern areas.
- To wiat for the formation of a low, expected middle of next week, in the bay. Could later become a depression.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
The temperatures in the sub continent show no signs of the winter lows. The days and nights are still above the normal. Another WD is awaited for the actual winter to arrive in the region. The IMD maps above show the extent of the above normal temperatures.
Meanwhile the cyclonic storm "Rashmi" weakened and after passing through the north-eastern states of India, crossed into Tibet region.A massive snowstorm followed.
The snowstorm event was attributed to "Rashmi" which developed over the Bay of Bengal and drifted north. Heavy rain associated with the cyclone quickly turned into heavy snow across the Tibetan region as it collided with a cold air mass. Although heavy snow is not an uncommon event in Tibet, a snowstorm this severe was fairly unusual this early in the season.
Heavy snow fell for more than 36 consecutive hours earlier in the week averaging snow coverage of 1.5 meters, with drifts up to three meters in places. Many people were either frozen to death or crushed by buildings which collapsed from the sheer weight of the snow.
Meanwhile,there is a weak sign of an easterly wave bringing some rain in TN and south AP from the 5th.The rains are expected in TN for about 3/4 days, before drying out again. ECMRWF expects the next low in the bat around the 16th. Not much rain before that.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
I maintain, that the dry spell will last in the southern regions of India till about the 4th. of November. Around the 4th./5th., an easterly wave can bring some rainshowers to TN and coastal AP. No organised sysytem is seen forming till the first week of November in the bay.
In fact, a stationary ridge over the Arabian Sea and west coast of India will result in clear skies and slightly "warmish" days over the west/nortwest India and central /southern Pakistan.
Night temperatures have not dipped much over the sub-continent since my last write-up. Only the extreme north region, Ladakh, has seen a fall in the minimum temperatures, with Leh dropping to -5c.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
As a result of the strengthening , much of the moisture and rain clouds in the bay and in the southern peninsula today, will gradually get pulled towards the system. Resultantly, rains will decrease from the coastal regions and interiors of TN in the next 24hrs., and from coastal and interior AP after 36hrs.
Much rain, would now gain and concentrate in the Orissa, W.Bengal regions in the next few days.The system, cyclone "Abe" if named (Ashokbhai corrects me and informs the name will be "Rashmi"), would strike the WB/Banladesh coast around 28th.
Thus, I see a respite from rains for TN and AP from 26th./27th. The lull in the rains may last till the 4th. of November, when the effect of the system will wear off, and allow the easterly waves from the bay to bring back rain bearing clouds.
The bay depression is pulling in all the moisture from the weak low in the south Arabian Sea as well. The current rains in the southern peninsula is a result of the rain clouds being dragged across the land towards the east. Hence, this system in the western sea is expected to fizzle out soon.
Remarkably low temperature ( for this time of October),of 11.6c was recorded at Pune today, 25th.October, 18c is normal. Several stations in Maharashtra had 12c (Nasik and Ahmednagar).
In the extreme north, winter has started setting in the Kashmir/ HP regions. In HP, first snowfall has been recorded in the Rohtang Pass, and all the higher reaches. Kalpa and Keylong have recorded 0c as their lowest temperatures this season. In Kashmir, the low in Srinagar is now 4c, and -1c in Leh during the last 2 nights.
Next blog update of the cyclone and winter progress will be on 29th.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
All on schedule! The south -west monsoon has given way to the north-east monsoon on the 14th. of October. As yet no organised system is seen in the bay, so, as mentioned, the rains will not be widespread in the south. The ICTZ having moved south, to almost 5N, is cause of the belt of rain clouds seen in satellite images on the southern tip of India and below.
But a low is forecasted in the bay during the week 21-28 October. Its intensification needs to be observed, though a few models have projected a cyclone in the bay by the 24th. I would wait for the advancing W.D., now a couple of days away, and then determine the bay system's movement.
The anticipitated low in the Arabian Sea has formed, and is now at 5N. Its movement is projected towards Oman, on intensification, but I would not rush into any forecasting now !
Meanwhile, a fairly active W.D. has whitewashed the upper hills of Kashmir with the first snow, and the plains of north India with winter rains. A sharp fall now in night temperatures for the north from 17th.
next update on 20th.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
As per my last blog, the winds and the jet stream patterns, and the atmospheric conditions, show, and, as per my assumptions, confirm with the complete widhrawal of the monsoon from all regions north of 20N.
The last of the stray isolated thundershowers will pop up in Maharashtra on the 8th. ,and, I feel, the monsoon should be bidding farewell to Maharashtra, Goa, North Karnatak and A.P. from the 9th.
By next week, the reversal of the south-west winds would be complete in the peninsula area, and the westerly jet stream should slide to the regions below 15N. Hence, it would be safe to predict the North-East Monsoon current to be picking up and rain bearing systems to start forming for the commencement of the reverse monsoon thereafter, say around 14th./15th. of October.
For the north-east monsoon systems to form, the influence from the equator region decreases, and the formation of a system in the bay directly depends on the strenght of the north-east winds, and the high pressure in the north China region, which is the main "power house".
The northern regions of the sub continent, are now getting some showers/winter rains due to a fairly active W.D. crossing the belt along N.Pakistan/H.P./Kashmir regions. Higher reaches in Ladakh had snowfall today. A sharp drop in night temperatures in the northern regions is expected once the skies clear on the passing of the W.D.
Some meteorologists and a few forecast models had foreseen the formation of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea by the 2nd. week of October. I do not see any signs of a cyclone forming off the west coast of India in the next 15 days at least. I limit myself to 15 days now, as the formation of a cyclone in this area is directly related to the "October heat" in the region. So, a lot depends on how much the land would heat up in the first 2 weeks of October.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Heavy rain in most parts of the state and early snowfall in higher reaches of Kinnaur and Lahaul-Spiti have disrupted normal life in the state.
There are reports of snowfall in the higher reaches of tribal districts and Chitkul. Most parts of the state have been lashed by heavy rain. The monsoon has been very vigorous that triggered landslides and caused uprooting of trees.
In Shimla, there has been 111.58 mm rainfall since yesterday, causing landslides and disruption in vehicular movement. Trees have been uprooted at several places, including Khalini Chowk, and many of the link roads blocked due to landslides.
There has been 29 mm rainfall at Sundernagar, 30 mm at Bhuntar, 75 mm at Kalpa, 25 mm at Mandi, 79 mm at Solan, 45 mm at Kotkhai, 62 mm at Renuka, 97 mm at Rajgarh, 152.7 mm at Arki, 44.3 mm at Kasauli, 31.4 mm at Nahan and 48 mm at Dharampur.
Hundreds of vehicles were stranded on both sides of the 13,050 ft high Rohtang Pass, the gateway to Lahaul-Spiti valley.
Inclement weather conditions which worsened since Friday, caused hundreds of persons to spend the night in their buses and other vehicles due to fresh snowfall on Friday afternoon at both sides of the Rohtang Pass.
Leh, in Ladakh, also recieved its initial snowfall of this season on the 19th.
Punjab, too, had very heavy rain. The rains may not benefit the crops now, as they are not needed.
Also Gujarat, has had some record rains, with Dhandhuka, recieving a massive 500mms. in the 24 hrs. ended Thursday. Several places in Saurashtra recieved between 250-450mms in 24 hrs.
The "flood belt" is now spreading, and has covered Gujarat, Nasik and Nanded towns in Maharashtra, and Orissa in the east.
It seems , now , that the rains will drastically taper off in the flood affected states.
North will be much drier, and Maharashtra and Gujarat too will get some relief.
But, the IMD forecasted low in the bay next week is to be watched, before bidding farewell to the monsoons !
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The D.D. is expected to cross the Orissa coast by the night of the 16th., its centre was just 50 kms from the coast as on 17.30 IST.and move westwards towards M.P.
Meanwhile, the Upper Air Circulation over Gujarat since Sunday, is still persisting over the region. As a result, very heavy rains hs been recorded over several cities in Gujarat and Konkan. Very heavy rainfall of 20cms was recorded at Junagadh in Saurashtra region. Some stations in Saurashtra have had almost 250mm-300mm in the last 48hrs.
Now, the monsoon still may not relent. As mentioned earlier, the much delayed West Pacific Typhoon activity may yet throw up another system in the bay. ECMWF has forecasted another low in the region around the 24th. May not intensify much, but will certainly prolong the rainy spell over the heartland a little longer.
Meanwhile, the highly active bay, in the last 2 weeks, has concentrated on the formation of systems around the central bay area, which subsequently cross the Indian coast on the Orissa shoreline. This has resulted in most of the rain pouring down north of Karnataka and caused a slowing down of the precipitation over the southern peninsula.
Extreme northern regions of the country too, have had no rainfall due to the absence of W.D.s. No W.D. can be expected now, for a week, as back to back lows are crossing across the central regions.
Since the systems from the bay are moving along the monsoon trough axis, that is across central India, the regions above and below the "path" can remain comparitvely "rain free."
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
The low in the bay, off the Orissa coast, as on the evening of 9th., supplimented with a "low"circulation over Maharashtra, has literally pulled the monsoon axis to the 22N level, and normal easterlies have resumed over the region north of the trough, that is over U.P., M.P. and nort-west India.
The bay low and the Maharashtra low have produced widespread rains over all of Maharashtra, south Gujarat regions north Karnataka and A.P.
Now, predictions show that: 1. The bay low will move inland and travel along the monsoon trough, till, say in one day,before it merges with the low over Mahrashtra. Result: Heavy rains all over Maharashtra, M.P., A.P. Karnataka, and south Gujarat on the 9th.,10th.
2. The system is expected to move north-west, and cross into the Arabian Sea and move towards the Sindh coast, before fizzling out. Result: Rains and strong winds off north Maharashtra /south Gujarat coast on the 11th. Good rains in south Gujarat and Saurashtra regions on the 10/11th.
3. Rains subsequently can move towards the sindh coast by the 11th. and decline as the system fizzles out there.
4. We may yet see the other depression forecast by the ECMRWF by the 15th of this month.
The current change may prove to be a boon for the deficit regions of Marathwada and the mid September rains will boost the water table in the dry regions of Gujarat.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Friday, August 22, 2008
Ladakh lies in a rain shadow region of the east Kashmir Himalayas with most of the region above 3000 metres. The low rainfall results in a barren "moonscape" and the river valleys are green belts surrounded by snow peaks. The snow peaks, towering 5000-7000 metres, change colour with the changes in the weather and the different hues of the sunrays highlight the peaks.
The people are friendly and mostly follow the Buddhist religion. Refugees from Tibet have swelled the local population, as they find the climate and culture similar to home.
The avifauna is more Palaearctic than Oriental. The diversity of birds is not much as in other parts of India, but some specific species are interesting and worth seeing.
Our first day was at Leh, the capital. It is important to acclimatise for the first 24hrs. as the pressure is low and oxygen in the air is 30% lower than at sea level.
For visitors to Leh, strolling in the local bazaar, observing the varied crowd and looking into the curio shops is an entrancing experience.
In the other direction from the bazaar, around the foot of the palace hill, are the stalls of the Tibetan traders, where you can bargain for pearls, turquoise, coral, and many other semi precious stones.
The palace is in the grand tradition of Tibetan architecture and a miniature version of the Potala in Lhasa. It had 9 storeys, but is now dilapidated and deserted.
Next day was the Hemis Gompa. This largest monastery in Ladakh was built in 1630. It is 45 kms from Leh. It is impressive and different from the other monasteries in Ladakh.
Thiksey monastery was next on the list. It is a fine example of Ladakhi architecture. The main prayer hall has a 15 mts. (50 feet) high-seated Buddha. This 12-storey monastery complex contains many stupas, statues, wall paintings and pillars engraved with Buddha's teachings.
The Indus ghat was another site we visited on the first day.
Day 2 was a trip to the highest motorable road/pass in the world. Khardung La, at 18380 feet, was cold and we experienced a mild snowfall on arrival. A beautiful site with snow all over and near freezing temperatures kept everyone huddled in the canteen, sipping hot Maggi soup.
Camp at the Hemis National Park was memorable. Named after the famous monastery, this park is spread out over 600 sq. kms. It has an altitudinal range of 3300-6000 metres. It is in the catchments of the lower Zanskar river, and part of it is the Sumdah Valley. An abundant treasure of natural beauty with mountains, flatlands, deserts and the fast flowing Indus.
The Park is famous for its rare Snow Leopard, though we were not lucky enough. Our sightings were the Bharal, Ladakh Urial, Tibetan Fox and commonly seen birds like Himalayan Magpie, Citrine Wagtails, Rose Finches, Shrikes, Sparrowhawk, Golden Eagle, Redstarts of 2 types, plenty of Warblers and Hill Pigeons. The Chukar Partridge was an added attraction.
The camp at Tso Moriri was a tough one. This lake, in the Rupshu Valley is at a height of 4500 mtrs. with the most inhospitable weather conditions. We had to brave a night of freezing temperatures along with gale force winds at almost 70 kmph. (Wind chill factor becomes almost -5c). This lake is the breeding ground of Bar Headed Geese. Also seen around the lake were Ruddy Shelduck, Brown Headed Gulls, Sand Plovers, Ibis Bill, Stilts, Terns,
Alpine Swifts, Oriental Dove, Red /Yellow Billed Choughs, Tickells Leaf Warbler and plenty of Hoopoes and Larks. On the way to and from the Tso Moriri we saw the Black Necked Crane. (There are strict directions not to disturb them) the Lammergeyer and the Common Merganser. In the nearby smaller lakes were the Pied Avocets and Northern Pintails.
On the way back to Leh, along the Manali-Leh Highway, we spotted herds of Yaks, Zhos, Tibetan Wild Ass, plenty of Marmots and Pashmina Sheep. We cross the second highest pass in the world, the Tanala La Pass at around 17000 feet and enter the homestretch to Leh.
The fascination of the place, the people, the wildlife and the landscape are reasons enough to venture there and the pictures speak for themselves at this link.
Your views awaited at firstname.lastname@example.org
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Coming back to the sub continent monsoon scene, ast week saw the depression moving across central India. The highlight was the rain in Mahableshwar. On the 10th. and 11th. this station had 44cms. and 49cms of rain on each day respectively! This beats the highest ever rain in a day at Mahableshwar. The previous record was 462mms in a day. I am not able to get the exact amount in mms of the 11th. but 49cms certainly beats the record.
The scene now seems to be looking a bit subdued for the next 8 days. The monsoon trough having moved northwards, and the next low in the bay at least 6/7 days away, rainfall seems on the wane throughout India and the subcontinent for the next 7 days. West coast and Maharashtra seem to in for much drier weather for the weekend, and Mumbai too should have a dry weekend.
We can await a system to emerge in the bay from the latest typhoon, Nuri, in the west Pacific, maybe around 26th. This system is very necassary, as, according to me, it should keep the monsoon "alive" and prevent the reversal of winds ( meaning the W.D.s gaining strenght), in the northwestern sector of the subcontinent.
Link to Ladhak album here
Friday, August 08, 2008
The other low forecasted is now "more marked" and is positioned off the Oriisa coast on 8th. evening. It is possible for the system to gain strenght and move north-west. A slight difference in the monsoon trough position, than anticipated, is seen though. I had estimated the trough to remain in its normal position, but, since yesterday, the western end has moved northwards. As a result, heavy rains were experianced in the Punjab and Delhi on Friday.
Hence, the weekend will see heavy rains in Orissa, M.P.,Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab,and good rains in Gujarat from Sunday, due to the system moving north-west, and the trough off the west coast developing a vortex near the north Maharashtra/Gujarat coast by the weekend. For Mumbai, it will be a wet weekend.
From the 9th., I will be going to Ladakh, with the BNHS camp, hence will be almost out of touch with the weather developments. All of us will be admiring the environmental beauty and nature at its best there. Ladakh camping will be a different world, without internet and mobiles. Shall be back at the blog, with snaps, on the 20th.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Monday, July 28, 2008
The "God sent"upper air circulation has moved across the border into the sindh area. Though short lived, this will surely introduce the first rains into the region (Karachi included). As the monsoon trough will now remain south at its normal position, with its western end into sindh, the south/central Pakistan areas will continue to get cloudy weather with fair showers into the first week of August.
The upper air circulation forming over M.P. on Thursday (25th), rapidly moved across westwards, and at the time of writing, on Monday evening, lies on the Gujarat/sindh border.
In India, the much needed dry regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and north A.P. got the required relief by way of fairly good showers on the weekend. Though the interiors of Maharashtra required much more than the 20-25mms of rain it got per day on Saturday/Sunday (26th./27th.), it was a matter of the rains actually "starting" for the season in areas of marathwada and south Maharashtra.
The north Maharashtra coast recieved good rains, with Mumbai getting a drenching with about 470mms in 3 days upto Monday evening. Roha was highest with 370mms in 24hrs. ended Monday morning.
In the northern regions of the sub continent, it remained fairly devoid of rains as expected.
The suddenly formed upper air system, at 500-700hpa, may have delayed the formation of the low in the bay by a couple of days.
It can now be expected to form in the bay by the 31st. ,and move westwards into the states of central India. The system could be expected to get to some intensity, as this year, the bay has not produced a seasonal depression since the 18th. of June, and June/July are normally expected to throw up at least 2 per month.
First week of August will see the precipitation of good rains in Orissa, M.P.,Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Monday, July 21, 2008
As a result, we have rains continuing in north Pakistan. But the rains are yet to begin in the south of Pakistan, with Karachi having got only traces of rain for the season as of today.
Rains today are good in U.P. Bengal and the north-eastern states of India.
However, the rains still play truant in the rain starved states south of M.P./Rajasthan level.
Now, for some hope of positive developments.
According to the international forecast models, A system could form in the central bay, around 15N, by this weekend, around 25th, and progress towards the Orissa/A.P. coast. It may not strenghten enough to move inland. But, I think it can bring and pull the monsoon trough southwards towards its normal position, that is across central India.
Consequently, as the low forms in the bay, by Friday,25th. we can expect increased rainfall along the west coast, specially the Karnataka/Maharashtra coast and in Mahableshwar and Lonavala.
On the trough taking its normal position, rains can resume in central India and the interior regions of Maharashtra and the southern /central peninsula from Sunday/Monday (27th./28th.).
Hence, after the 25th.,and before the month end, it is possible to see a revival of the monsoon in the effected states of Gujarat,Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka and to some extent Kerala.
As the western end of the trough will be over south Pakistan by the 28th. of this month, sindh and Karachi can expect its first rains by then.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Monday, July 14, 2008
2. The rain will therefore be restricted to the states of Punjab, U.P.,Jharkhand,Bihar,Bengal and north-east. Flooding danger in east U.P.
3. Remaining south/central regions will be comparitively dry.
4. Deficit has spread to the west coast south of konkan,extreme deficit seen in Marathwada,adjoining A.P.,Kerala.
5. No emerging low seen in the bay till Friday,at least. Hence no change in rainfall pattern in affected areas till Friday/Saturday. Warmer conditions expected in Maharashtra/Gujarat, Karnataka and interior A.P. on Tuesday/Wednesday (15th./16th.).
6. As western end of the trough runs into northPakistan, rain to continue in northern regions of Pakistan. Central and south may remain dry thru this week.
7. Abnormally long period of break condition due to inactive bay. Resultant of dull west Pacific typhoon season and active W.D. season in the northern most regions.
Friday, July 11, 2008
the next ten days to two weeks looks to be drier than
usual across much of southern and western India and that
will perpetuate the drier bias further delaying some
summer planting. Early seeded crops have likely not
established well and the next few weeks will be critical for
getting significant rain into the region to avoid noticeable
cuts in production potential”
• Further, World Weather Inc opines that “The combination
of sea surface temperature anomalies and lingering La
Nina will result in lighter than usual July rainfall in Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, southernmost Maharashtra, Kerala
and Karnataka – basically the same southern crop areas
that were drier than usual in June will be dry again during july."
A close monitoring of weather in to south Maharashtra into
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka over the next two weeks will
be warranted, especially since computer forecasts are still
downplaying rain potentials during the next two weeks.
• Portions of Gujarat and far western Madhya Pradesh have
had their bouts of below average rainfall, too, this summer
and they are about to enter another period without much
rain. Recent rain has improved soil moisture in these two
areas and that will help provide adequate crop development
potential until a better period of rain evolves later this month."
Monday, July 07, 2008
Yes, and the deficit is growing in all the peninsula states, Gujarat, and the central region. (Aurangabad in Marathwada has reached a deficit of 75%).
Excess rain still holds good in the line along the trough, that is, Punjab, U.P.,Delhi, Bihar and Jharkhand.
Today,heavy rains held on to the western end of the trough, with Islamabad (Pakistan) getting 270mms in the last 2 days, and Jammu recieving 99mms today. The map shows how scanty the rains have been in the rest of the sub continent today. (The map shows rain from 5.30 a.m. till 5.30 p.m. on 7th.).
25th October... SWM Withdraws.. & NEM sets in. (Estimated earlier in Vagaries on 14th) See (below) complete withdrawal dates from coun...