Sunday, November 28, 2021

Posted Sunday 28th November

Heavy rains continue in Coastal T. N.... And will get heavy showers for two days more, thus completing a memorable 🌧 figure for Chennai for November. 

Below Stats of Chennai from PJ

Continuing from last post, 

BB-19 expected to reorganize at 925 hpa levels and above, as it enters the Arabian Sea tomorrow and becomes an Low Pressure, AS-5. 

This Low Pressure AS-5 will track north parallel to the West coast of India and can possibly intensify till well marked low (WML). Then will fizzle out around 3rd off the North Konkan Coast.

AS-5 will interact with an incoming westerly trough in jet stream at 200 hPa and will move in a northeast direction from December 1. 

W. D. rains effect in North & North West India from 3rd, for a couple of days. 

Mumbai:🌦Rains again next week, from Tuesday 30th evening, Wednesday and Thursday 2nd. ( It's not normal for Mumbai, but also not the first time we see December rains). 

 Expecting increasing cloudiness with light to moderate showers from Tuesday 30th November evening. Rain will increase further on December 1st and 2nd with moderate rain and occasional heavy shower for Mumbai. 

Cumulative rainfall from 30th November Tuesday t nuo 2nd December Thursday Night for Mumbai : Ranging from 20 mms - 45 mms. Cooler day temperatures below 30°C. 

Mahableshwar & Lonavala, going to be very pleasant on 30th Tuesday and 1st Wednesday with showers. 

Pune and Nashik:

End of November and again we see a cloudy ⛅ sky and warmer temperatures. Minimum temperature will rise again. 

Cloudy weather with light showers and cool daytime conditions ( 26c) expected for these regions on Wednesday 1st and Thursday 2nd December. 

Gujarat: South Gujarat🌦 (Surat/Bharuch) may see increasing cloudiness and light to moderate rain from 30th November till 2nd December. Cooler days. 

Parts of Saurashtra and East Gujarat (Ahmedabad - Vadodara - Bhavnagar region) may see some moderate-heavy rain on 1st and 2nd December. 

Compilation assisted by Vag. Shreyas. 

Friday, November 26, 2021

 Posted 26th November... 

BB 19 keeps NEM (over) Active

Rainfall as on 26th in cms

TAMILNADU: Kayalpattinam (dist Toothukudi) 31, Tuticorin (dist Toothukudi) 27, 

Tiruchendur (dist Toothukudi) 25, Nagapattinam (dist Nagapattinam) 19, Srivaikuntam (dist 

Toothukudi) 18, Kulasekarapattinam (dist Toothukudi) 16, Vaippar (dist Toothukudi) 15, 

Karaikal (dist Karaikal), Tiruvaiyaru (dist Thanjavur), Satankulam (dist Toothukudi), 

Ottapadiram (dist Toothukudi), Pelandurai (dist Cuddalore) 12 each, Tirupuvanam (dist 

Sivaganga), Srimushnam (dist Cuddalore), Sattur (dist Virudhunagar), Peravurani (dist 

Thanjavur), Labbaikudikadu (dist Perambalur), Palayamkottai (dist Tirunelveli) 11 each, 

Dindigul (dist Dindigul), Tiruvarur (dist Tiruvarur), Budalur (dist Thanjavur), Agaram Seegoor 

(dist Perambalur), Vembakottai (dist Virudhunagar), Sivaganga (dist Sivaganga) 10 each, 

Tambaram (dist Chengalpattu), Manimutharu (dist Tirunelveli), Nannilam (dist Tiruvarur),

Kvk Kattukuppam Arg (dist Kancheepuram), Satyabama University Arg (dist Chengalpattu), 

Chembarabakkam (dist Tiruvallur), Kadambur (dist Toothukudi), Maniyachi (dist Toothukudi), 

Cheranmahadevi (dist Tirunelveli) 9 each, 


Thiruvananthapuram 7,


(Thiruvananthapuram district) 6, Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Myladumpara (Idukki district), 

Airport Chakka ARG & Perumkadavila ARG (both in Thiruvananthapuram district) 5 each, 

Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram district), Kumarakom (Kottayam district), Chittur 

(Palakkad district) & Vellayani AWS (Thiruvananthapuram district) 4 each, 

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Posted 24th Night:

BB 19 expected to bring increased rains to T.N & A.P. this weekend, 25th thru 28th. 

The weak system BB 19 is expected to move West and cross into the Arabian Sea. 

This can bring precipitation to  Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra  next week. More on this later.

Mumbai & Pune will get dry and warm weather this weekend..25th thru 28th. No chances  of getting a major shift to cooler temperatures. 

Rain expected  again next week . Will track the system and quantify  later.

Since 1970, a total of 239 cyclonic storms have formed in the Indian Seas (Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea).  Out of this, 164 formed in Bay of Bengal and 75 over the Arabian Sea.

There are initial indicators for development of the first cyclone of this post monsoon season over Bay Of Bengal around end of November or start of December. 

A low pressure system BB -20, is expected to enter Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand around 29th November. This system B- 20, remains under observation for any significant development. 

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

23rd November

If no cyclone forms in next 7 days in north india ocean then for the first time after 1990 the north indian ocean will be cyclogenesis free in Oct-Nov months. 

Information study by Vagarian Vineet Kumar (IITM Researcher) 

Monday, November 22, 2021

22nd November:
Clear skies bring cold temperatures in J&K and Ladakh
Today's minimum
Drass -13c, Leh -8c, Numbra -9cKargil -5c. 

Mumbai: Outlook from today 22nd till Wednesday 24th November:

Light to moderate rain/Thundershowers expected in Mumbai region today. Some localized areas may get heavy shower for few minutes. 
Pune and neighborhood region to also get some rain with localized moderate intensity Thundershower today. Intensity reducing from tomorrow.

Rain intensity reducing over most of western Maharashtra from tomorrow. 

Dry weather from Thursday 25th onwards.

Sunday, November 21, 2021

 Thunder Showers covering Mumbai... @9.20 pm image

Posted Sunday 21st November

Goa Special  .... 

Massive Rains in Goa

This has become the wettest November ever for Panjim... With 9 days remaining. 
November ☔ rains till today total 223mms.Record was 212 mms in 1922.

Panji Goa received November Record Rains for 24hr period. 121 mms on 21st ,against old record of 109 mms in a day on 6th November 1922.

Cumulative rains forecasted for Goa ( Vagaries) was 75 mms ( 15th-19th) 

Saturday, November 20, 2021

 Posted Saturday Evening

As explained, BB 18 ( interior system) will fizzle out. 

In cms

Unusually Heavy rains in Udaipur.. As on 20th Morning

Friday, November 19, 2021

Some South Gujarat towns got good rainfall on Friday 18th specially between 4pm & 6pm..Valsad drenched 83 mn, Surat 40 mms.. Rains☔. ..2 Systems Managed the forecast of 14th ( vagaries). 

Posted Friday Afternoon:

Heavy Showers lash Bangaluru as BB-18 moves inland.

Bangaluru  A.P. 91 mms, City 74 mms as on Friday morning 24 hrs.

BB-18 is expected to fizzle out into an UAC  in the Interior Karnatak Region..

But, rains continue this weekend in the Interior Karnataka and southern Madhya Maharashtra and South Konkan.

Outlook for this weekend: 19th/20th/21st.

  • Goa: Light rains recorded on 18th. Moderate  type of thundershowers will continue till Monday 22nd.
  • South Konkan & South Madhya Maharashtra:  Moderate  type of thundershowers will continue till Monday 22nd.
  • Mumbai: Warm and humid conditions this weekend. Light to medium rains likely to continue in parts of Mumbai this weekend.
  • Pune: Moderate thundershowers likely in parts of Pune . Weather conditions will be warm and above normal winter temperatures.
  • Aurangabad: Some light showers on Sunday 21st.
Gujarat rains yesterday

Thursday, November 18, 2021

 Posted Thursday 16th afternoon

Rainfall as on 18th Morning from Depression..

Rainfall realised (cm) during past 24 hours ending at 0830 hrs IST of today: 

Tamilnadu: Tiruppur: Dharmapuram-13, Palladam-8, Tiruppur, Avinasi-7 each, Thanjavur: Thanjavur-12, Ayyampettai-10, Budalur-8, Thanjai Papanasam, Tiruvaiyaru-7 each, Tenkasi: Sankarankoil-11, Perambalur: Chettikulam-11, Coimbatore: Sulur-10, Valparai-8, Chinnakalur-7, Dindigul: Odanchatram-9, Palani-7; Erode: Bhavanisagar-9; Tiruvarur: Needamangalam, Valangaiman-9 each; Tirunelveli: Palayamkottai-9, Ambasamudram-7, Toothukudi: Srivaikuntam, Surangudi, Kayathar-9 each, Kayalpattinam-8, Virudhunagar: Sattur-8, Virudhunagar-7, Nilgiris: Avalanche-8; Cuddalore: Tozhudur-7; 

Rayalaseema: YSR District: Atlur-10, Penagaluru-9, Rajampet, Cuddapah Vallur, Utukuru-7 each, Chittoor: Tirupati-9, Srikalahasti, Thottambedu-7 each, Theni: gudalur, Veerapandi-7 each; 

Coastal Andhra Pradesh: Nellore: Atmakur-8, Vinjamur-7; North Interior Karnataka: Haveri: Hirekerur-10.

Depression  BB-18 Moving inland...

ThunderShowers expected around Mumbai Thursday evening

Radar of 4 pm⬇⬇

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

 Raining East of Mumbai... Mumbai ready

Posted 17th Morning

Some parts of Saurashtra may see TS development later today and tomorrow... Along with pockets in South Gujarat. 

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Posted Tuesday Night 16th

Twin Low pressure areas have formed on either side of the coastline. 

From the AS 4, 17th November, Coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra are likely to be lashed with fairly widespread rain and thundershower.

Rains in Mumbai & Pune on 17th thru 19th.

Pune already getting ☔rains. 

Rains expected to continue in Lonavala and in Mahabaleshwar. 

 Posted Tuesday 16th Evening...Image

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Posted 14th November Afternoon

Rains expected from 15th to 19th November in Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South Gujarat. 

Rains expected 15th - 19th in Lonavala & Mahabaleshwar

Mumbai : Cumulative rains expected from 16th - 19th: 10-15 mms. 

Pune: Cumulative rains expected from 16th - 19th: 30-45 mms. 

Goa: Cumulative rains expected from 15th- 19th: 60-75 mms. 

Friday, November 12, 2021

Posted 12th November Friday Night:

Rains to decrease now, for 4/5 days in Chennai & TN...till BB-18...

Monsoon rains will be good from the next system. 

Tuesday, November 09, 2021


Minimum temperatures in Maharashtra on 9/11/2021 in °C:

1. Mahabaleshwar(Nr Venna Lake):9

2. Pabal:11

3. NDA(#Pune):12.1

4. Pune IMD:12.7

5. Gondia & Jalgaon:13

6. Pashan:13.4

7. Rajgurunagar:13.5

8. Akola AWS:13.9

9. Daund:13.8

10. Aurangabad:13.6

11. Nashik:13.4

12. Talegaon & Washim:14

13. Beed:14.2

14. Nagpur:14.4

15. Yeola:14.5

16. Parbhani:14.8

17. Lohegaon (Pune) & Solapur:15

18. Gadchiroli:15.4

19. Buldhana:15.6

20. Nanded:15.9

21. Osmanabad:16

22. Satara:16.1

23. Sangli:17

24. Lavale:17.9

25. Kolhapur:18.5

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Monday, November 08, 2021

Posted 8th November Monday afternoon:

Approaching system BB- 17

Coastal Tamil Nadu will get full effect of the NEM on the 9th-11th of this month...that is week will begin with good rains and very windy along Coast.

Chennai will be getting heavy rains in the first 3 days of this week, with squally weather. Cumulative 3 days rain can be around 80-120 mms.

Interior T.N. will also get the heavy showers, especially heavy falls in Nilgiri Regions. 

Bangalore  will get the benefit of Heavy Showers starting on 10th and heavy on 11th (70-90 mms).

Mumbai: Dry weather with warm days this coming week. Days may top 34/35c with dry heat. Nights can drop to a comfortable 20-22c. 

Interior Maharashtra will be dry, but seeing a fall in night temperatures in Pune, Nasik and Aurangabad. Where the nights will be pleasant at around 11-13c.

अंतर्गत महाराष्ट्र कोरडा राहील, परंतु पुणे, नाशिक आणि औरंगाबादमध्ये रात्रीच्या तापमानात घट. जेथे रात्री सुमारे 11-13c असेल.

Friday, November 05, 2021


Friday 5th night.. Mumbai gets rain

For Mumbai.. So near.. Yet far... 9pm

 Diwali Rains in Pune District

Pune district thunderstorm rainfall figures ending 8:30 am on 05/11/2021(in mm):






6.Kasarsai 16






12.Pune IMD:4

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte


Thursday, November 04, 2021

Posted 4th Evening

True to yesterday's post, South Konkan Thunder⚡ showers on Diwali... 

Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Posted 3rd November afternoon :

Low from the Bay has crossed over to the Arabian Sea (now AS 3):

Diwali weather Outlook for Mumbai & Pune: 

Mumbai: Rain may not play a spoilsport on Diwali day for Mumbai MMR... however some light rain in parts is likely in Mumbai MMR region over the weekend (6th & 7th November). 

Hence this Diwali, if we get some rain, humidity may dampen a few "Diyas' and the November " So called Mumbai coolness " may not be felt. 

Pune: This time, the cool and dry wintry feel will be missing during Diwali. Instead, there is a chance of light to moderate rain/Thundershowers from 4th till 7th November in and around Pune. Western Ghats region may get some moderate-heavy Thundershowers during this period. 

Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and parts of Raigad district to also see rain/Thundershowers from today 3rd till 7th November.

Tuesday, November 02, 2021

Monday, November 01, 2021

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