See Mumbai Page for September Forecast
Thursday, September 01, 2011
AS-2 has now deepened to 996 mb, and is located south of the international border, just off the west Gujarat coast. It is now expected to remain as such till tomorrow.
As explained yesterday, precipitation along the line joining AS-2 with the seasonal low over Pak/Rajasthan border, in Sindh and west Rajasthan, is very heavy. Overnight Jacobabad in sindh got 99 mms. Jaisalmer in Rajasthan today received 64 mms.
BB-5 is also very much in the same position, at 996 mb over South Chattisgarh. Thursday saw good thundershowers in Vidarbha and East M.P.
Akshay from Nagpur has put up superb video of the thunderstorm, which is up on vagaries on the inter-action page.
Monsoon axis remains south of normal position.
Delhi (Palam) rose to 37.7c today, Thursday.
Northern states of Kashmir, H.P, Punjab can be ready for some rains next week. W.D. S-1 could possibly arrive.
We have discussed earlier, that the spell of heavy rains in the sub-continent is the result of an active MJO in the Seas around us. The current active MJO started around 24th August, aftera supressed MJO since 5th August.
Now, as per various estimates, we have a "normal" active MJO now around in our seas. Forecasts say that the MJO would in a supressed state from around 11th September. That means, "active" events of the SWM would stop from about the 10th/11th September.
Withdrawal of SWM would get a boost in this stage.
25th October... SWM Withdraws.. & NEM sets in. (Estimated earlier in Vagaries on 14th) See (below) complete withdrawal dates from coun...