30th November 

Possibility of a potential cyclone in the South Bay  remains. Various models are indicating its possible formation around December  2/3 rd 2023.

A well-marked low-pressure (BB 14) area persists over the southeast Bay of Bengal, expected to strengthen in the next 24 hours with a northwest track.

Easterly winds have resulted in a trough extending from Indonesia to Sri Lanka. The embedded Well Marked Low will get enriched moisture.

This could mark the fourth tropical storm in the Bay this year. 

As different models differ on the final track which is uncertain,Despite differing model predictions, Vagaries estimate a possible track to North T.N. / South A.P. Coast. 

 Hence heavy to very heavy rains could be  expected over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH

Solar storm to hit Earth on November 30, will disrupt mobile communication.

NASA and weather experts are issuing
a warning about an upcoming solar storm projected to strike Earth on November 30

This relatively minor storm is anticipated to disrupt radio and GPS.

NASA and weather experts are issuing
 a warning about an upcoming solar storm projected to strike Earth on November 30

This relatively minor storm is anticipated to disrupt radio and GPS

 Three and perhaps four CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of explosions on the sun this week. 

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. The biggest of the CMEs, launched on Nov. 28th, could sweep up some of the earlier, lesser ones, forming a Cannibal CME.

 

28th November 

Light rains 🌧 may continue in Pune and Sambhajinagar next 2/3 days.

Rainfall from yesterday's weather interactions

❖ Significant Rainfall Amount:

Mumbai Lakes (mm) Vaitarna 37, Tansa 47, Vihar 0, Tulsi 9, Upper Vaitarna 33, Batsa 56, Mid Vaitarna 31

➢ Madhya Maharashtra: (cms) Taloda (dist Nandurbar) 15, Jamner (dist Jalgaon) 9, Yaval (dist 

Jalgaon) 8, Nandurbar (dist Nandurbar) 7, Shahada (dist Nandurbar) 7, Shirpur (dist Dhule) 

7;

➢ Gujarat Region: (cms) Sagbara (dist Narmada) 14, Navasari_aws (dist Navsari) 13, Umerpada 

(dist Surat)12, Mandvi (dist Surat) 12, Kukarmunda (dist Tapi) 11, Kamrej (dist Surat) 10, 

Narmada_kvk Aws (dist Narmada) 10, Surat City (dist Surat) 9, Surat_kvk Aws (dist Surat) 

9, Netrang (dist Bharuch) 9, Nadiad (dist Kheda) 8, Nizer (dist Tapi) 7, Palsana (dist Surat) 

7, Ankleshwer (dist Bharuch) 7, Sankheda (dist Chhota Udepur) 7, Olpad (dist Surat) 7, 

Modasa (dist Aravalli) 7;

➢ Saurashtra & Kutch: cms :

Chuda (dist Surendranagar) 11;

➢ West Madhya Pradesh: Rama (dist Jhabua) 11, Niwali (dist Barwani) 11, Sendhwa(med) 

(dist Barwani) 11, Pansemal (dist Barwani) 10, Rajpur (dist Barwani) 10, Chachariyapati 

(dist Barwani) 9, Ranapur (dist Jhabua) 9, Badwani (dist Barwani) 9, Khargone-aws (dist 

Khargone) 8, Jhabua-aws (dist Jhabua) 8, Udaigarh (dist Alirajpur) 8, Warla (dist Barwani) 

8, Maheshwar (dist Khargone) 8, Kukshi (dist Dhar) 7, Pati (dist Barwani) 7, Kathiwada (dist 

Alirajpur) 7, Alirajpur (dist Alirajpur) 7, Bhagwanpura (dist Khargone) 7, Anjad (dist 

Barwani) 7, Jhirnya (dist Khargone) 7, Bhikangaon (dist Khargone) 7, Bhabhra (dist 

Alirajpur) 7, Sondwa (dist Alirajpur) 7, Gogawan (dist Khargone) 7;

➢ Marathwada:cms

 Purna (dist Parbhani) 9, Manvat (dist Parbhani) 8, Parbhani - Imd Obsy (dist 

Parbhani) 8, Jafrabad (dist Jalna) 7, Gangapur (dist Chh. Sambhajinagar) 7, Pathri (dist Parbhani) 7, Selu (dist Parbhani) 7;

26th Evening:

Scenario 1:

In a rare turn of events, heavy thunderstorms occurred in Gujarat, Mumbai, and M.P....

The reason :

1.A Western Disturbance trough  dropping Southwards ( Due to sharp temperature gradient in the upper most atmosphere).👇

2. A severe confluence of 850 winds around East Gujarat region.👇

3. An Upper air trough from Maldives to (off) Maharashtra coast (Unseasonal), with an embedded Circulation in it.👇

4. Confluence of East-West Winds due to the "Line of Discontinuity, causing thunderstorms 👇

The inter action of these systems and their corresponding East/West winds resulted in the heavy rainfall in the regions

Scenario 2 ..the other side

The Low developing in the Bay( 27th) could develop , and may turn into a potential cyclone next week,,after 30th...to be watched and tracked.

26th November...The expected 

Pre dawn Thunderstorm lashes Mumbai 

TOP FIVE BMC RAINFALL AMOUNTS

Borivali Fire Station: 14.47 mm

Malwani Fire Stn    : 14.8 mm

Kandivali Fire Station: 13.71 mm

Andheri Fire Stn     : 12.7 mm

Bandra Fire Station: 11.94 mm

Colaba 9 mm

Scruz 5 mm

Continuous lightning flashes....reaching 19 flashes /minute.

Lightning flashes at around 19 /minute 😲

Continuous lightning flashes dangerous video by Vag. Salil..

Unseasonal rains Special:

For Maharashtra and Gujarat - (continuing from the previous post)...

Mumbai: 

Unsesonal Rains in Mumbai may dampen the events and functions planned in open.

Hence adequate planning is advisable for outdoor events/activities. 

Total rainfall from 24th - 27th November may be between 30-60 mm. 

Heaviest rainfall for Mumbai/Navi Mumbai/Thane/Palghar regions (around 30 mm) is possible from Sunday evening to Monday evening and can be accompanied by thunder. 

Pune: Rainfall total from 24th - 27th November could be around 20-40 mm in Pune and PCMC regions. 

Planning for outdoor events should be done.

Ch. Sambhajinagar: Unseasonal Rains expected on 25th to 27th. Around 15 mms cumulative. 

Beneficial for standing Chana and Wheat.

Nashik: Hail may damage the Grapes in Nashik.

Rainfall from 26th will begin off the Maharashtra and Gujarat coast and spread eastwards into interior regions and also into Madhya Pradesh. 

Places in north Konkan, north Madhya Maharashtra (Nashik, Dhule, Nandurbar, Ahmednagar,Jalgaon), Marathwada (Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna) and Vidarbha (Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Washim, Wardha, Nagpur) may receive hails during 26th-27th. 

Bharuch: Rainfall total from 25th - 27th November can be around 30-60 mm. Rain likely to be accompanied by thunder. 

Some places in Gujarat may receive hail.

Initial rains from tomorrow could be triggered by a typical Line of wind discontinuity or wind convergence feature (moisture laden southeasterlies meeting the moist Sea breeze from Arabian Sea).

Forecasted winds on 25th November.

But Sunday onwards, the Western Disturbance due to dipping Jet stream can lead to thundershowers with chance of hailstorms in some areas. 

Rainfall and cloud movement during 26th-27th likely to be from west to east or southwest to northeast associated with the movement of the trough in upper-level westerlies.                                        

   

 

Forecasted trough in the Jet Stream at 200/250 hPa by 26th November.

700 hPa winds forecasted for 26th November - good moisture inflow.

Weather outlook from Tuesday 21st to Sunday 27th November - Rain returns again for Maharashtra and Gujarat

Somewhat similar to pre-Diwali, another round of rain/thundershowers possible in Maharashtra towards the end of the week!

Mumbai: Rains refuse to subside completely, not allowing winter to set in. The slight pleasant feeling during night/early morning may go away from Thursday 23rd or Friday 24th. Some cloud cover and rising humidity with a chance of some light rain/thundershowers from Friday 24th to Sunday 26th November. Overall cumulative rainfall maybe 10-15 mm for Mumbai region. Days can be warm around 33-34C. 

However, Mumbai's AQI can improve after the rain.

Pune: The cooler nights may turn warmer with minimum temperatures rising above 18C from Thursday/Friday. Chance of rain/thundershowers from Friday 24th to Sunday 26th November.

Madhya Maharashtra districts of Solapur, Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara, Pune, Ahmednagar, Nashik, Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon may get some rain/thundershowers from 24th-26th November. Southern districts such as Solapur, Sangli, Kolhapur may also see some showers from Thursday 23rd.  

Some areas in Marathwada (Beed, Latur, Dharashiv, Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Nanded, Washim, Hingoli) and Vidarbha (Akola, Buldhana, Amravati may also see increasing clouds with a chance of some rain. 

Konkan and Goa may also get rain/thundershowers during 23rd to 26th. 

Gujarat: Rain/thundershowers likely during 25th-27th November for areas in south Gujarat (Surat/Valsad/Bharuch). Saurashtra region may also get some thunderstorms. 

Reason for these unseasonal rains...👇

A trough developing in mid-upper level westerlies (600 hPa - 200 hPa) and dropping southwards will lead to increasing divergence ahead/east of the trough axis - unusual for this time of the year. 

Moisture will be pushed north into Maharashtra from southerly/southeasterly winds at low levels. 

A weak wind convergence/wind discontinuity feature may develop along Ghats of Maharashtra as well, further enhancing cloud formation and thundery developments.  

Moisture from southeasterlies at 850 hPa

Trough at 600 hPa dropping into the Arabian Sea

Trough (orange dashed) also seen in the 300 hPa dropping into the Arabian Sea. Region inside yellow boundary can see increased mid-upper level divergence. 

More updates by Thursday/Friday if any changes...

 26th Night...

Mumbai

Mumbai has been through hot days and warm nights from immediately as the rains stopped. Days above normal at 36°c for almost the last 23 days, and nights far warmer at 25/26°c.

But, coinciding with the Divali festival, the city will get much more comfortable. 

As the warm east winds ( from interior Maharashtra) give way to the cooler Northerly winds, the city will cool down by 5/6°c at night.CN expect around 18/20°c.

For Mumbai, a "cool pleasant " night is termed as the temperature going below 20°c.

Helped by a rain system crossing North India, the city will now graduate to pleasantly better climates.

Winds flow on 16th Night..North winds for Mumbai and BB 12 position...

 

16th... 3 p.m.

15th Evening IST;

Expected track will be NW and then as it faces some resistance from an approaching W.D. trough , will curve N\NW towards West Bengal Coast. Spiral bands indicate low level vorticity and thus signs of deepening (Intensification).

Kolkata can get some thundershowers on 16th evening and night. Showers may be also possible on. 17th.

#sa v/s aust and #worldcup semifinal may be affected. 

Meanwhile heavy rains reported from coastal T.N. due to an UAC off the coast.

Chennai drenched

Mumbai: 

Since the start of November, Mumbai has seen hot days, specially around 36c, which is above normal.

Nights too are missing the slight "Mumbai Nip". Well, now for Mumbai, going below 20c will be "getting the winter feel".

From 17th, now, we may see the temperatures getting to comfort levels, that is below the 20c mark. Mercury should record around 18-20c from this weekend (18th onwards).

14th November:

Continuing from our previous post...

IMD mentions a low pressure area to have formed in southeastern Bay of Bengal. 

Vagaries' view is that a broad region of vorticity/wind circulation is seen developing over southern Bay of Bengal (BB-12), and the low pressure may eventually strengthen to a depression by tomorrow night. It can have an elongated structure in north-south direction by tomorrow. 

Two regions of increased vorticity in the Bay, can merge to become an elongated low pressure circulation

BB-12 may intensify into a cyclone, but the subtropical westerly jet stream at 200 hPa is dipping southwards, and this will cause southerly/southwesterly wind shear over the system, with clouds getting pulled northwards. 

Odisha/West Bengal coasts may receive moderate to heavy rain during 16th-17th November. 

The ICC Cricket World Cup semifinal match at Kolkata can be affected by rain. 

Below forecasts from IMD GFS highlighting the approx wind pattern and rain.

13th November 

Big update: 

Strong Depression ( cyclone ?) will form in Bay of Bengal by 15 Nov as per latest indications.

As of now North Odisha & WB are probable in line of system. 

Will keep track...to watch out for Kolkata Cricket Semi Final.

 12th November 

Vagaries...Always vouching for positive thinking 🤔 

Divali Day....It is presumed to be the most polluted in Delhi...but the good news 👇

Reported by ToI 😐

Some Divali Night AQI checks

-----------------------------

And, as for Mumbai..even better 😀

Happy Divali 😊 

 

Courtesy Mr. Hosalikar

Prominent Rainfall Amounts for Southern Maharashtra and Konkan as on 9th Morning:

Panhala 65 mms, Sangli 57 mms,Colaba 24 mms, Dharashiv 21 mms, Karjat 19 mms, Kolhapur 6 mms, Mahabaleshwar 5 mms.

 Anticipated improve in air quality ..After light showers on Wednesday 

Light showers in South Mumbai on Wednesday 8th evening with thunder 

Large scale moist air has moved north in association with a Low pressure over Arabian sea and trough extending from it.

(Courtesy Vagarian Gokul)

Posted 8th Wednesday Morning:

Continuing from yesterday's post...the rainfall amounts as on 8th morning from Goa, south Konkan and South Maharshtra

Karad  AWS 106 mms

Vengurla AWS 78mm

Panhala 74 mms

Ratnagiri 30 mm

Solapur 28 mm

Karad 50 mm

Goa👇

Margao 103 mm

Dabolim 104 mm

Panaji 99.4 mm

Mormugao 60.4 mm

Mapusa 44 mm

Mumbai AQI ..First figure is 2022 avg

Followed by Jan -Oct 2023 ..avg.

Outlook from Monday 6th till Saturday 11th November:

Rain likely to return for Maharashtra!

 Active NEM spell was seen over south peninsular India. Clouding now seen shifting west into the Arabian Sea. 

Mumbai: Mumbai continues to manage the over 36c mark for the 20th day at a stretch !

Increasing humidity and discomfort. Chance of some showers/thundershowers in MMR region during Wednesday 8th to Friday 10th November.

Air quality can improve as pollution/haze may reduce by some extent in Mumbai region after rain. 

Pune: Increasing cloudiness from Tuesday 7th November. Rain/thundershowers possible from Wednesday 8th to Saturday 11th November.  Day temperature may drop a little because of clouds, but night temperatures to increase. No winter feel till Friday/Saturday.

Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Goa: Rain/thundershowers possible from today till Saturday 11th November. Intensity and spread of rainfall increases from Tuesday 7th/Wednesday 8th onwards. 

Districts such as Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Kolhapur, Satara can get some moderate-heavy showers. 

Light-Moderate showers also possible in parts of Nashik, Ahmednagar, Sangli, Solapur districts.

Marathwada: Chance of some light rain in Districts of Latur, Dharashiv, Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Nanded. Few localized areas can see moderate showers.

Interior Karnataka to also get some moderate rain/thundershowers with heavy in few places around Belgaum, Dharwad, Hubli, Vijayapura regions. 

Bangalore/Mysore regions to continue getting moderate-heavy rain/thundershowers.

Low pressure area AS-5 likely to develop in the Arabian Sea west of Karnataka coast by 8th November. Moist southerly winds along the west coast will increase humidity and rain chances. 

Forecasted winds at 850 hPa for 8th November

Forecasted winds at surface level for 8th November

There will also be moisture from southeast winds at 850 hPa, with a weak trough like feature forming over western Maharashtra in the easterlies. 

October Weather 2023

October 2023 Weather Summery..

The average Maximum temperature in October 2023 in India was the 3rd highest since 1901. It was 0.93c above normal...Ranked 3rd. The minimum average for October 2023 was also 0.73c above normal..Though it was ranked 10th..meaning there were 9 warmer Octobers.

(IMD)

For Maharshtra, we see the October day Temperatures around 1-2c above normal.

The Night temperatures around 1c below normal...so overall, it has been just about Normal October for Maharshtra.

But, Mumbai has seen almost 16 days, more than half the month, day time temperatures above 36c , i.e.2 degrees above normal and at least most of the other days around 35c..so Mumbai overall would be averaging 1.5c above normal days in October 2023.

Night also have been around 2c above normal in Mumbai this October.

Scanty below the normal rains of only 11mms in October (Santa Cruz) and 28 mms in Colaba.

Weekend,  Saturday 4th and Sunday 5th 

Mumbai will be hot, maybe touching the 37° mark. Hazy day and nights without chill at 22°.

Chances of some showers on9th/10th to dampen Divali  ? But then..The + side.. could clear the smog ..Will review estimate again... 

Pune, still not sufficiently cool fir thus time, with days at 32°...May not show much improvement as clouds gather. 

To probably bring thundershowers by Tuesday 7th or Wednesday 8th.

A Meteorological explanation for the Air Quality over Mumbai:

 Last 15 day Mumbai  continuously >36°

A Meteorological explanation for the Air Quality over Mumbai:

The red line shows temperature variation with height. We can see temperature inversion in this case, i.e., temperature rises with height for few hundred meters above the ground before dropping above it.

This phenomenon happens every time during the winter months, wherein the air near the ground cools and this cool air near the ground is trapped below a layer of warm air. As warm over cool structure is stable, there is no vertical mixing of air. 

Therefore, all the particulate matter/pollutants get trapped in this low, near surface layer of air. Often, fog/mist forms when windspeed is low (seen in rural Konkan belt), but in cities, pollutants cause the fog to become smog/haze. When windspeed in the lower 2-3 km of the atmosphere is less, the pollutants do not disperse and this phenomenon persists.

Air quality only improves during the post-Monsoon or winter months when there is strong wind (which usually happens due to passage of a Western Disturbance or some other weather system) or after some rainfall, which is rare from mid October to February.

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