23rd Morning:
Vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Monday, October 21, 2024
21st Night Post
Mumbai/Pune: Finally! Post Monsoon rains for Mumbai and Pune will cease from 23rd October.
As the consistent prevailing moisture " rains off ".
Rising October heat for Mumbai ( 35/37°) and cooler clear nights for Pune ( 17/18°).
But with low humidity and less 😓 sweaty.
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The unexpected and unusual post monsoon rains in Gujarat on 20th/21st October
Friday, October 18, 2024
18th October:
South West Monsoon winds are over....
A Low in the Arabian Sea forms to move Westwards.
Maharashtra: Due to the large incursion of moisture from the pervious Low from the Bay BB14), some pre monsoon showers will linger on in Maharashtra till 22 and October. Interiors of the State will get moderate thundershowers in localised patches till 22nd .-----------------------------------------
Mumbai & Pune: The stray localised thundershowers will pop up in the evenings till 22nd October.( Post Monsoon).
Cumulative Monsoon Rains total as on 18th October:
Colaba: 2754 mms ( 108 ")
Santacruz:3160 mms (124")
Pune :1165 mms (46")
Goa: Valpoi (197"), Sanguem (188") and Sanquelim (168") Panjim 3856 mms (152")....
Goa: Similarly, stray thundershowers till 23rd October.
South Gujarat: Due to proximity of the moist regions, Surat and South Coast will get light rains till 21st October. This includes Bharuch also.
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
15th October:
NE Wind directions show a gradual transition of change as the SW Monsoon winds have diminished.
The Low Pressure (BB 14) in the Bay will strengthen into a depression and cross T.N. Coast by 17th. Proper N.E.Monsoon set in will be established from 17th. However, Pre Monsoon showers in association with the system BB 14 has commenced as seen in the map
(IMD Statement on 15th October::Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country today, the 15th October 2024. Simultaneously, the Northeast monsoon rainfall activity has commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala today, in association with A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over central part of south Bay of Bengal.)
As the withdrawal of the SWM has begun with the change in winds, the South West Monsoon season will be over by 17th. October.
As the BB-14 system moves inland into Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and entire South Peninsula will get thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. We can associate these rains with the advancing North East Monsoon system.
Mumbai: The transition of season change has started with reversal of winds. As the Monsoon withdraws by 17th, Mumbai can get the few local evening thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. Post monsoon rains in Mumbai have been witnessed before.
Pune: Getting warmer, but local thunder showers will continue till 18th October.
Saturday, October 12, 2024
ISRO’s satellite imagery shows significant expansion of glacial lakes in Indian Himalayan river basins, aiding in climate change adaptation
See Author's Page
Auroras sighted in Leh: How a solar storm led to this rare phenomena...See Space News Page
Friday, October 11, 2024
11th Night Post:
The Well Marked Low ( AS- 3) in the Arabian Sea is keeping the Monsoon " alive" in Maharashtra and rest of Peninsula India.
Now, AS-3 is expected to move away Westwards. But, we have another Low ( BB-14) in the Bay surfacing by 14th October.
BB-14 is expected to strengthen into a Deep Depression and strike T.N. with heavy rains.
Subsequently, as the system is strong, it will cross South India and re emerge in the Arabian Sea as a Low around date 17th/18th. So, effective thunder showers will continue till 19th in Maharashtra, Goa and Mumbai.
Mumbai and Pune will continue to receive a the evening " retreating" thundershowers till 19th/20th October. Intensity may decrease, and showers quantum may vary daily and on a few days will be localised.
Sambhajinagar (Aurangabad) will get thundershowers on few days till 20th October.
Gujarat: Rains/thundershowers continuing for another 3-4 days.
Saurashtra, Bharuch and Ahmedabad regions can get rain till about 14th October.
South Gujarat areas of Navsari, Valsad, Surat can get rain/thundershowers till 15th October.
Weather after 15th depends on the track of the new low from Bay of Bengal.
Thursday, October 10, 2024
*10th October...3hr rainfall from 7.15pm to 10.15pm in Mumbai (BMC)*
B Nadkarni Park Mun. School, Wadala : 70.8 mm
Talchekar wadi Mun. School, Lower Parel : 64 mm
Worli Fire Station : 63 mm
MHB Mun. School, Malad: 62.6 mm
Gokhale Road, South Mun. School, Dadar: 62.6 mm
Supari Tank Mun. School, Bandra: 55.4 mm
Sewri Koliwada Mun. School, Sewri: 53.8 mm
Thursday 10th 8.30 pm
Wednesday, October 09, 2024
Tuesday, October 08, 2024
Posted 8th Night:
South West Monsoon Limit line 👇
Conclusion drawn by few parameters, but the prominent factor is, Anticyclone Winds in the North/West Region 👇and the Westerly 200 hpa winds in the North.👇👇
Moderate-heavy thundershowers likely in Interior Maharashtra and Ghats from 11th - 15th October. Heavy localised thunder showers in Marathwada on 15th.
Sunday, October 06, 2024
Posted 6th Night:
Mumbai:
7th - 12th October: Partly sunny in the day till late afternoon.
Thunder clouds forming from late afternoon in the East, could drift over parts of Mumbai. Resultantly could give moderate rate thunder showers. ( 20-40 mms per day)
11th/12th could get a heavy thundershower. (Exceeding 30 mms).
Monsoon Persisting till 15th October.
A Low Pressure ( 1004mb) may form in the Arabian Sea Off the Kerala Coast by 12th October. The wind systems and High pressure ridge in NW India and Shear indicate the System to strengthen to 1000 mb by 16th. Tracking NW away from West Coast.
Pune:
7th-12th October: Sunny warm day, with thundery developments by afternoon.
Clouds can drift over parts of Pune to produce thunder showers. ( 10-15 mms per days).
Monsoon persist till 15th October.
Aurangabad:
Expect retreating thundershowers from 9th - 13th th October. Heavy in small pockets.
Monsoon over by around 15th October.
Gujarat: Main monsoon current can be declared as withdrawn by 8th, as the dry winds from North) have started.
But, some stray showers can be expected in South Gujarat Rigion( Surat, Bharuch) on 12th -15th October.
Friday, October 04, 2024
Posted 4th October Night:
South West Monsoon Withdrawal and retreat continues:
Having retreated thus far Southwards, there may be a slight "slow down" in the Monsoon withdrawal now , in the coming next week.
Further withdrawal into Maharashtra and Remain Gujarat, M.P and Peninsula could be after Dussera.
Mumbai:
5th/6th/7th/8th October: Hot sunny spells in the day , around 33-35c. Some thundery developments in the evening. Stray shower in parts of city.
9th/10th/11th October: Partly cloudy with hot daytime temperatures ..Thundershowers in the late afternoon/Evening.
Pune: 5th -8th October: Hot days and cloudy by evening. Some stray localised thunder showers.
9th -12th October: Hot daytime, thunder showers developments by late afternoon/Evening.
Mumbai and Pune Region Monsoon persisting till 12th.
Thursday, October 03, 2024
Monsoon Analysis by Prof. Ranjan Kelkar , DGM (Retd) IMD
Eight Successive Years of Good Monsoons for India 2017-2024
October 2, 2024
It has been a long-accepted practice of meteorologists in India as well as globally, to compute statistics of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) over the 4-month period of 1 June to 30 September. While nature is not obliged to strictly follow the months of the Gregorian calendar, and it rarely does, meteorologists find this convenient, particularly because it makes comparisons easier. It does not mean that May and October never contribute to the monsoon rainfall, of course they do, but the ISMR is a useful indicator of the overall monsoon performance.
In a statistical sense, the 2024 monsoon has come to a close just a couple of days back, and the ISMR has been 8 per cent above its long term average and very close to the official predictions. An 8 per cent excess rainfall for the country as a whole is not something that happens often. It could be called a “great” monsoon if a non-meteorological word was permissible.
What is also important is the fact that for the past seven years, the monsoon rainfall has been normal, meaning that it has consistently remained within the margin of plus or minus 10 per cent of the long term average. The year 2024 is the eighth year in this series of good or satisfactory monsoons.
In the years from 2011 to 2016, India’s annual food grain production had remained stable around 250 to 260 million metric tonnes. In 2017, with a good monsoon, it increased to 275 mmt, in 2018 to 285, in 2020 to 298, in 2021 to 311, and in 2023 to a record breaking figure of 330 mmt.
From the viewpoint of the nation’s food security, this steady rise is very significant. It is a result of sustained efforts in multiple areas, but it has once again brought to light the direct hold that the monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has on Indian agriculture. It also needs to be noted with caution that long epochs of successive good monsoon years have been very few historically, and it will be worthwhile to attempt predictions of monsoon rainfall over longer time scales.
Wednesday, October 02, 2024
Weather Vagaries Goa!
SWM 2024 END OF SEASON STATISTICS IN CHARTS:
SWM 2024 set new records for Goa with seasonal Area Weighted Average
Total rainfall of 4401 mm (173.2”) which is 46% above Normal!
Salient Features for SWM 2024:
* Total Average Area Weighted Rainfall for Goa for June + July + August + September for 2024 is highest in the last 10 years since Weather Vagaries Goa started keeping records, and since IMD Goa started maintaining this statistics of Area Weighted Average Rainfall.
Prior to 2014, Total Rainfall of Panaji was recorded as the Rainfall for Goa!
* Every month in 2024 from June to September recorded excess rainfall. Unprecedented 92% Excess rainfall was recorded in July, followed by 50% excess in September, 33% in August and 3% in June.
* This year Goa received 46% of total rains in July, 22% in August, 21% in June and 11% in September.
* Valpoi (197"), Sanguem (188") and Sanquelim (168") were the wettest places this year!
Check the charts for other details!
** ( Data and Daily Rainfall Chart sourced from IMD Goa Centre. Compiled and other charts by Weather Vagaries Goa)
Tuesday, October 01, 2024
FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2024
A weak start this monsoon season with
June having an 11% deficit soon turned into an above normal July (+9%) and a
still better August (+16%), finishing with September at 11% above normal.
Overall the monsoon this year was almost 8% above normal. As seen in the chart below the red line shows the current year monsoon status and where it lies on the
monsoon distribution curve since 1901. A total of 44 years have seen more
rainfall than the current year since 1901.
In this century, 2013 (937.2 mm), 2007
(942 mm), 2020 (958.5 mm), 2019 (971.8 mm), were years with monsoon rainfall
higher than 2024.
X-axis represents years with monsoon
rainfall starting from highest of 1124.2mm in 1917 (extreme left) to the lowest of 697.4 mm
in 1972 (extreme right).
Monday, September 30, 2024
2024 South West Monsoon
The South West Monsoon season 2024 ends officially today (30-Sep-2024) on a calendar period basis. The observed cumulative All India mean rainfall for SWM 2024 ended with 934.8 mm and a cumulative rainfall departure of + 7.6 %. This puts the Monsoon 2024 in the "Above Normal Monsoon year" category. A look at the spatial distribution of cumulative rainfall anomalies across the country shows that the Monsoon rains were normal/above normal across many parts of the country with below normal rains over parts Indo Gangetic plains, parts of east India and parts of North East India. The east-west asymmetry in rainfall anomalies along the core Monsoon zone continues this years as well. Congratulations @Indiametdept for the accurate seasonal rainfall prediction.
Script by Vag. Gokul.
Saturday, September 28, 2024
28th Night Posting :
In the next 2 days, by 1st October, the South West Monsoon will have withdrawn from Kashmir, H.P, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West U.P, West Rajasthan and entire Kutch.
Monsoon current prevailing South of these regions ...
Outlook for the week 29th September - 4th October
Maharashtra will have light and scanty rainfall till Friday 4th October,
Gujarat will get Decreasing rains this week, with the Monsoon bidding good bye in Kutch and North Gujarat.
Bharuch: light rainfall and scanty showers continue till Friday4th. Not likely to hamper the celebrations .
Outlook for next week: 29th September - 4th October
Mumbai:
Substantial decrease in rains from Sunday, and almost negligible rains from Monday 30th Sept. thru Friday and 4th. October.Hotter and sunny days.
Initial days of "Navratri" celebrations may not be disturbed by showers. Later, after 5th, there could be evening thunder showers in Mumbai.
Monsoon not withdrawing at least till 8th October.
Pune: Very little and scanty rains during the next week, with hotter sunny days.
Initially, the "Navratri" celebrations may not be affected, but there could be thunder showers in the evening after 5th October.
Friday, September 27, 2024
Thursday, September 26, 2024
26th September
Mumbai had very heavy rains on 21st to 25th ..these 4 days cumulative rainfall was 320 mms. Now that is 83% of the normal September rainfall total of 384 mms.
This year we have 507 mms in September till date..4 days still left.
The wettest September ever was in 2019, with 1116 mms received.
However, this rain last few days is no record. Yesterday Santacruz recorded 170 mms in 24 hrs..while the 24 hrs record for September is 318 mms in 1981.
Pune
Highest 24-hour rain for September at 133 mms. Beating previous record of 132.3 mms of 1938.
Seasonal total at 1184 mms
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
25th Night 10,30 pm
Mumbai: Experienced very heavy rains sinceWednesday afternoon, some regions reaching 200 mms in 5 hrs !( See quantum till 9 pm below)
The outlook wold be :
25th Night: Rains diminishing after Mid Night,,down to light rain with the odd heavy shower. Morning readings will be between 15 -275 mms
26th: Heavy showers and thunder showers later in the day,.with heavy downpours. Another 100 mms on the cards.
Pune:
25th Saw heavy consistent rains , with huge amounts.Pune Rainfall(mm) 17:30 dt. 25.09.2024, CHINCHWAD 127.5 SHIVAJINAGAR 124.0 WADGAONSHERI 71.5 KOREGAON PARK 63.0 NARAYANGOAN 55.0 NDA 42.0
26th: Expecting heavy rains , maybe around half 50-80 mms during the day.
System BB 11 moving into Gujarat as mentioned.
25th Night
Unbelievable rainfall last 3 hrs
Last 3 hrs rainfall in mm in Mumbai (BMC) (top)
N WARD OFFICE 182
Tagore nagar mun. School Vikhroli 177
Mankhurd Fire station 210
Trombay municipal school 162
Maravali mun. school Chembur 146
Sewri mun school 128
Tembipada Bhandup mun school 123
Vihar Lake and wadala fire station 108
Club Vagaries 105
23rd Morning:
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Pune recorded 87 mm ending 8.30am today. With this achieved 1000 mm mark! Seasonal Rainfall stands on 1018 mms now. Last night Widespread...
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Short Narration: Monday 1st/Tuesday 2nd : The heaviest rains are in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka and No...