29th February..

Fairly Strong Western Disturbance approaching North/North Western India

Effect in Northern Hills will be with heavy rain/snow 1st - 3rd March. Moisture flow will be strong from the Arabian sea

Forecast of 2nd March👇

Northern Plains( Punjab, Haryana,, Delhi,  Rajasthan, West U.P, ) to be affected with widespread rains/hails from 1st --3rd March

What about Mumbai..?

Rollercoaster temperatures in February ! Highs of 37.5c to 15c...Hotter than Normal..then few days of cooler weather.

To begin with in March, :From 1st March, Mumbai will again see a slight drop in temperatures. A fall of 5c from 37c to 31/32c in the daytime. A fall of 4c from 23c to 18/19c in the night. A "pleasant" Weather scenario (by Mumbai Standards)

Improving Air Quality levels.

Pune: 

Been very warm at 35c, will also see a nominal drop...Days around 32/33c and better nights at 15c 

As Warned in last post (below), interior heats up on 26th

Karjat.. 38.4°C

Panvel 38°C

Thane & Navi Mumbai 37.8°C

Kalyan 37.7°C

Santacruz 37.5°C 

Badlapur 37.4°C

------------------------------

26th February India's top 10 hottest  places 

Mumbai Lake Levels...24th February👇

Outlook for next week till Thursday 29th February:

Temperatures expected to rise across Maharashtra and Gujarat. Chance of thunderstorms for Vidarbha region and Madhya Pradesh.

Mumbai: 

*The pleasant daytime weather is likely to turn much warmer, with max temperatures rising to 33-34C.

 

*Interiors in Thane district could see 35-37C max temperature. 

*Nights along the coast will get warmer from Monday 26th, and min temperature can rise to 20-22C in the upcoming days.

*Sea breeze on Monday 26th and Tuesday 27th can be more from W/SW directions, so a rise in humidity can be expected during evening/night time.

Pune: 

*Days will be hotter with max temperatures in 34-35C range. 

*Nights will see a significant rise in temperatures from Monday 26th, and min temperature may rise to 17-20C during 28th/29th February. 

Unseasonal thunderstorms in interior Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh - Monday 26th and Tuesday 27th may see thunderstorms across Jalgaon, Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia, Washim, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli districts of Maharashtra, with chance of hails. Eastern MP to also get thunderstorms during this period. 

Parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha may get some rain/thunderstorms during 26th-29th February.

Gujarat: The pleasant weather may continue for another 2 days across the state. Days to get hotter to 34-35C in many areas (Surat, Bharuch, Baroda, Ahmedabad, Saurashtra) from Tuesday 27th. Nights to get warmer gradually, with minimum temperatures rising to 17-20C from Tuesday 27th February in most places. 

A weak-moderate intensity Western Disturbance will affect the western Himalayan region from 26th-27th February, giving light-moderate snowfall mainly in higher elevations. 

Delhi NCR could see some cloudy weather and light showers during 26th-27th February. 

A much stronger WD is expected to affect the western Himalayas and most of northern and northwest India in early March.

PETER JAMES SPIELMANNJune 30, 1989

 Read This old message 👇( 35 years old) on Author's Page 

Message Issued in 1989...

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked

PETER JAMES SPIELMANNJune 30, 1989

"Substantial Snow Returning to the Pacific Northwest U.S."

22nd February

Japan beset by record-breaking heat wave..on World Weather News Page

Meanwhile :

"Substantial Snow Returning to the Pacific Northwest U.S."

----------------------------------------------

Record Jet Streams push commercial flights to speed of sound. Resulting in bumpy flights ✈️ 

https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/benzinga-epaper-benzinga/nearrecord+winds+push+commercial+jets+to+speed+of+sound+creates+bumpy+ride-newsid-n585219576?sm=Y

 

 21st February 

And the expected improvement 👉in Mumbai air quality. 

This indicates that air quality is much dependant on wind direction and moisture. 

20th February:

Big Day/Night Range:

Churu 👇

Pune 👇

Records from Vagaries' Extreme Blog: Extreme Event Temps Page👇

 19th February: 

3👇

4👇

1👇

W.D.

Mumbai:  

This Year, the general impression may be its "Hotter than Normal" or "There is no Winter"..

So, Some facts on February Behavior till 18th:

Highest this year (Feb) yet in 2024: 36.2c on 2nd 

Highest Ever Recorded : 39.6c on 25th 1966

Normal Average February Daily Maximum : 31.7c

Average Daily Maximum this year till 18th: (Approx) 32.0c

Lowest this this year (Feb) yet in 2024: 16.7c on 11th

Lowest ever Record :8.5c on 8th ,2008

Normal Average February Daily Minimum: 18.1c

Average Daily Minimum this year till 18th:  18.9c

All Facts threadbare>>> You Decide

Data courtesy IMD

Presentation Courtesy Vagaries.

 

Posted 15th Thursday Night:

Mumbai: 

After the upcoming weekend temperatures around 34c in the day and a " pleasant " 20c at night, Mumbai all set to feel a drop in temperatures from Monday 19th.

Pleasant weather Mumbai style next week,  around 30c (days) and 17c (nights) can be expected. 

Later, After 25th, warmer weather ahead.. 

Pune: Current Temperatures will continue till Monday 19th. Next week expect a slight drop and cooler nights. 

North India: Fresh WD. this weekend:

After a week of dry days and  warmer nights, parts of North and Northwest India are set to welcome another Western Disturbance,  with wet weather yet again from this weekend onwards.

 Under its influence, light to moderate intensity rain/snow accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, are expected across the Western Himalayan Region from Saturday to next Wednesday (Feb 17-21).

Places in Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh will also be in for heavy rain and/or snowfall  on Sunday (Feb 18).

Precipitation will also cover the northwestern plains—of Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh— from Sunday to next Wednesday (Feb 18-21).

Delhi: Cloudy days, some rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds are coming back, making it feel a bit like winter again.The cold will slightly return, with temperatures dropping at night, before it gets warmer again.

Strong winds to bring back some winter feel  until February ends.

 

Ashok Patel’s  (GujaratWeather.com) Analysis & Commentary : On Latest ENSO Status...on World Weather News Page

 13th Evening Posting:

Overall March 

Max Temperature Estimate (IITM)👇 Above Normal

March Rainfall Estimate (IITM) : 👇

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai: 

Currently temperatures at 32c - 17c.

Expected:14th - 19th : Slight warming in the coming days with days around 34/35c,- 20c

19th - 21st: Drop 30c - 18c

Interior towns ( Panvel, Karjat, Navi Mumbai, Badlapur) may touch 38 or more next few days.

Pune :

Current Temperatures : 34c - 12c

14th - 19th: Slightly warmer nights: 33c- 14c 

19th - 21st: Better at 31c - 12c.

Gujarat:

Partly cloudy weather in Kutch on 14th. Very light drizzles on South Gujarat. 

Dry and  getting warmer.

Bharuch: Getting warmer during the week, as temperatures rise to 33/34c.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Climate Change and Warning Models and Observations... Worth thinking over on the facts..on " Climatology Data Page " of this Blog.

12th February 2024:

East M.P. & Vidarbha rainfall Today 

Strong W.D Effect in Middle East:

12th Satellite Image👇

Rain in UAE: Hail in Abu Dhabi, heavy rain, thunder, and lightning in parts of Dubai, Ras Al Khaimah, and Fujairah

Rainfall last 24 hrs:

U.A.E.

1Dubai International Airport (United Arab Emirates)41.0 mm

2Sharjah International Airport (United Arab Emirates)28.2 mm

Oman:

1Sohar Majis (Oman) 76.8 mm76.8 mm

2Buraimi (Oman) 61.4 mm61.4 mm

3Marmul (Oman) 55.0 mm55.0 mm

4Sunaynah (Oman)21.8 mm

5Al Amerat (Oman)21.4 mm

6Sur (Oman)19.0 mm

7Nizwa (Oman)17.2 mm

8Qumaira (Oman)12.2 mm

9Seeb, International Airport (Oman)11.0 mm

10Jabal Shams (Oman)7.4 mm

 Long, But Must Read the New Article on .."Climate Change and Warning Models and Observations"..By Roy Spencer , Former Scientist NASA

Worth thinking over on the facts..on " Climatology Data Page " of this Blog.

Meteorologist and Journalists, please read this article.

"Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.

It is simply what the climate system does. This is actually quite easy for meteorologists to believe, since we understand how complex weather processes are." ...Spencer.

Cold Wave Continues To Persist In North India, Widespread Snowfall Witne...

8th February Posting 

Rain, cooler temperatures in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh: 9th- 12th February:

This is the position of the very meagre rainfall in Vidharbh this year...from January. 👇

Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh have recorded less than 1 mm of rain this month. Madhya Pradesh fared slightly better with 1.5 mm accumulated between Feb 1-7.

But, some positive news on the cards.

From 12th -15th, fairly good rains are expected in Vidharbh and East M.P.

Even parts of Marathwada can expect showers. 

Rainfall Expected on 12/13th February ( NCMRWF)👇

 7th February 2024...Day temperatures 

North India 👇

Maharashtra 👇

India👇

Northern Hemisphere 👇

Extended Outlook For Summer and Partly for Monsoon for Gujarat and Maharashtra.

At its Meeting on 4th February,  (Actual and Virtual) Vagaries' discussed the possible weather expected in Gujarat and Maharashtra State Regions this summer 2024.

There is much hype going on that 2024 could be the hottest year on record...now let us analyze the probability;

Note: After a certain agency announced that 2023 was the hottest year, Vagaries displayed a chart of several other agencies, which showed much variation to the statement.

1.Moderate El Nino effect in February/March/April: : An early summer is expected from late February thru April. Above normal temperatures expected in March and April. 

In March itself, or even late February, Interior Konkan may see the mercury touching 40c.

This excessive heating may see temperatures rising in April in excess of.41/42c in Vidharbh and parts of Madhya Maharashtra.

Above normal rise in Interior Saurashtra and South Gujarat Region in Mid March thru April.

2. The unusual heating may bring local Thunder showers in Mid March to Madhya Maharashtra(Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kohlapur).

As a Line of Wind dis-Continuity forms in Central Maharashtra, more ( Pre Monsoon) Thundershowers can be expected in Mid April in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.

Thundershowers may pop up in pockets in Saurashtra around April.

3. El Nino effect decreases, to become weak El Nino from May/June/July;  Probably we may see the extreme above normal summer easing, becoming milder from May.

May could be around Normal/above normal, Summer temperatures. As studies have shown that the entire summer suceeding a strong El Niño has generally, to some extent, a little above normal temperatures in most of India.

4. Decaying of El Nino and strengthening La Nina:   Maharashtra and Gujarat (Barring Kutch)..... Now this shows a good indication of a normal -Good Monsoon. As the El Nino decays, the South West Monsoon get normal to above normal from July.

The overall Northern Hemisphere Summer will not be severe from June -August, thus reducing chances of a record heat year.

This Long Term Estimate is based on the studies by Vagaries' study and not binding or should not be solely taken for commercial purposes. 

There may be variations in the outlook in the forthcoming Months.

 

Pune minimum temperature in January

Must Read World Weather Page for " Alaska..Severe Cold"

Variation of minimum temperature in Pune Shivajinagar in January month from 2022-2024. Data: IMD

Delhi Weather summary for January 2024

 Delhi Safdarjung 

Average maximum temperature: 17.9c (2.2c below normal)

Average minimum temperature: 6.5c (1c below normal)

Highest maximum temperature: 28c (28 Jan)

Days with maximum temperature above 20c: 5 days

Lowest minimum temperature: 3.3c (15 Jan)

Rain: Trace

Number of cold days: 5

Number of cold waves: 5

Data: IMD

Outlook for 3rd/4th weekend 

Mumbai:"Warmish" days expected over the weekend , 3rd/4th.  for Mumbai with daytime temperatures rising to 32°C-34°C range.

Nights may remain around 18°C.

But,...Days can again drop to around 30°C from Monday 5th , and nights again becoming cooler around 16-17°C.

Pune also getting cooler from Monday to around 9/10°c.

Bharuch can expect cooler weather from Monday for 2/days. 

Another active WD to affect northern regions from 3rd to 5th February. Rain/TS with chance of hail in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, west UP and rain/snow in Himalayas with moderate to heavy snowfall in high elevations.

Meanwhile,Pahalgam recorded a low of minus 11.9°C.

MeT officials said that It was the 3rd lowest temperature for Pahalgam in the last ten years after minus 12.6°C and minus 12.7°C recorded on 2nd and 9th February in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

 The all-time lowest minimum temperature for Pahalgam during February was minus 17.2°C in February 1984.

Fresh Snowfall Grips Kashmir Valley And Northern India | India Today News

Alaska Snow Record:👇

Anchorage has received a record-breaking 104.9 inches of snow as of Jan. 30, making it the earliest on record the city has seen 100 inches or more of snow after eclipsing that mark on the 29th.

In comparison, Anchorage typically sees 48.8 inches of snow on average by this point in the season, so it's currently running 56.1 inches above average.

And there’s a lot of winter left to go, providing more opportunities for the city to pick up additional snow accumulations.

Must Read World Weather Page for ""Does Extreme Cold Weather Signal A Warming Earth?" 

First rainy day of the year for Delhi

Last 24 hrs rain (ending on 1 Feb 8:30am)  in Delhi 

Safdarjung: 26.5mm

Palam: 20.1mm

Lodhi road: 24.6mm

Ridge: 23.4mm

Ayanagar: 7.5mm

Also with 26.5mm rain at Delhi Safdarjung, it is the highest 24hrs rain in February in Delhi after 2013.