Saturday, July 31, 2010

Update from Pradeep:
In continuation to Rajesh's Post the other places are (Highest All India Rain Total as on as on 31st. July 2010 from 1st. June)

Gaganbawada: 3370
Buxa: 2728
Karwar: 2302 (+356)
Harnai: 2218 (+648)
Chinnakallar: 2156
Bhagamandala: 2155
Kannur: 1977
Kottigehara: 1972
Peermade: 1880
Jalpaiguri: 1825 (+348)
Kozhikode: 1762 (+16)
Valparai: 1674
Coochbehar: 1655 (+120)
Dahanu: 1646 (+460)

Monsoon in Mumbai, clicked on Saturday,31st.

Highest All India Rain Total as on 31st. July 2010 from 1st. June.
Cherrapunji: 5499 mms (+255)
Agumbe: 3406 mms
Shirali: 2935 mms
Honavar: 2628 mms
Mangalore: 2434 mms
Penambur: 2452 mms
Ratnagiri: 2521,( +751)
Mahableshwar: 2515 mms (-700)
Panjim: 2227 (+483)
Mumbai Colaba: 2046 (+775)

The current low, now over west M.P./Gujarat at 998 mb, is maintaining its precipitation strenght. With Good rainfall along its path, and good capacity to attract cloud mass from the Arabian Sea, it has generously drenched Central India, Maharashtra coast, and many pockets of Gujarat too.

A vortex (see map) in the north Arabian sea has suddenly increased precipitation along the north maharashtra coast (MUmbai) on Friday.Vortex ex
pected to merge with the incoming system.
Keeping up the trend, like the previous low, this system should wipe out the "red" region totally.

Well, as a reader has asked,, could it now track SW ? Difficult ! My estimate is that a weakening system should move, along the axis, west-northwest, into Rajasthan. Precipitation will also shift from M.P. to Konkan,Gujarat and South Rajasthan from Saturday. At this rate, Konkan and Gujarat should be piling up in surplus.
More Rains for this weekend (Saturday thru Monday) in South Rajasthan, Gujarat, especially coastal Gujarat and Konkan getting very heavy falls on Sunday (up
to 150 mms in pockets) in 24 hrs,and then the wet patch rolling into Sindh coast from Tuesday.
What next for the week ?? See a system on the east coast of Thailand ! Take your binocs and lets watch out for a pulse emerging from it in the bay ! Taking a clue from this forecast map of 6th. Aug from "Weather Zone"

Standing out prominently is the rainfall at Dehra Dun. 364 mms in 24 hrs eneded Saturday morning. Another noteworthy reading, Bareilly, 75 mms. Reason: Yesterday, another cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. was over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarakhand. Interacting with western disturbance as an UAC in the same altitude, there was an instant formation of high clouds (rain bearing) in the region, as a cold front was locally created.

Mumbai: With the help of a 3 hour drenching on Saturday morning, Mumbai Colaba season's total has overshot the 2000 mms mark, and stands at 2046 mms as on Saturday morning. The 3 hour downpour overshot my forecast of 30 mms for saturday by 24 mms.

Saturday and Sunday will also be wet, as per the analysis above. Would not hesitate to expect 150 mms Saturday thru Sunday.
Very frequent rains during daytime Some extremely heavy falls could flood low areas. Rain intensity tapering a bit by sunday evening.

Monday:expect frequent showers to continue, but with 40 mms of rain that day.

And not a soul is going to crib in Mumbai ! The combined lakes are now at a storage level of 6.7 lmlitres, against a full capacity of 13 lmlitres. 51.5 % full up.

Friday, July 30, 2010

New on "Vagaries": Mars Weather !

"This is the first dust devil that NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has observed in the rover's six-and-a-half years on Mars. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell University/Texas A&M

The Opportunity rover has captured an image of a dust devil, and surprisingly, this is the first one ever that Oppy has spied. Spirit has seen dozens of dust devils over on the other side of the planet in Gusev Crater, and even the Phoenix lander's camera captured several of these whirling dust dervishes during its short four-and-a-half month life. Plus the different orbiting spacecraft have seen evidence of plenty of dust devils by using their eyes from the skies. But this is the first one Oppy's cameras have managed to shoot. This tall column of swirling dust appeared in a routine image that Opportunity took with its panoramic camera on July 15, 2010. The rover took the image in the drive direction, east-southeastward, right after a drive of about 70 meters (230 feet), and was taken for use in planning the next drive.

But obviously, over the years, Opportunity has benefited from dust devils – or perhaps just gusts of wind – as she has had a series of unexpected boosts in electrical power when the pervasive Martian dust gets cleaned off her solar panels. And just one day before Opportunity captured this dust devil image, wind cleaned some of the dust off the rover's solar array, increasing electricity output from the array by more than 10 percent. These unexpected – but welcome – Martian "car washes" have helped extend the life of both rovers.

"That might have just been a coincidence, but there could be a connection" between the cleaning event and the dust devil in the image, said Mark Lemmon of the rover team from Texas A&M University. The team is resuming systematic checks for afternoon dust devils with Opportunity's navigation camera, for the first time in about three years".

Please give feedback if readers are interested in "vagaries" write up on Mars Weather.I would also welcome more such info. from readers.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

"The low pressure area over northwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal off south Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh coasts now lies over north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Orissa and south Chhattisgarh. It is likely to move west-northwestwards" - IMD bulletin for Thursday evening.

The low, well marked by now, is at 994 mb. enough to give meaningfull rains along its track.It can deepen a bit more on Friday, before starting its inward journey .
With the movement of the system ,rains could be expected along the path, that is thru North A.P, Orissa, Chattsigarh from Thursday evening and moving into Maharashtra and M.P from Friday. I see concentrated heavy rains in M.P. and Northern Maharashtra regions on Saturday.

Not venturing yet to forecast beyond this point today ! :)

Strong south-westerlies are hitting across into the Goa,Karnataka and Kerala coasts since yesterday.Coastal stations in Karnataka have received very heavy rains.Kammardi (Chickmagalur dt.) 170 mms, Kollur (Udupi dt.) and Bhadrachalam 160 mms each, Agumbe 150 mms, Mudibidre (Dakshina Kannada dt.) 140 mms, Shirali 107 mms, Honavar 80 mms. And in Goa, anguem-150, Margao-130, Gaganbawda, Canacona-110each, Pernem, Ponda, Valpoi, Dabolim,
Mormugao-100 each, Panjim -90.

As anticipated, now with the weekly monsoon report (as on 28th July), we see the previously "Red" regions in the central states have turned to a favourable "green"
The deficit now drastically reduced to-5%.
Our poll results should end here now, with -5% as the final result. With .37.% voting for this number, we see it in the 1st position as the most voted .

Mumbai, lull (in rains) period seems to be over ! Increase in rains, as the low has crossed the coast in the east. Gradual increase now till the weekend. I see very heavy rains culminating on Sunday/Monday as the system moves in closer to Mumbai.
Trying an experimental detailed Mumbai Forecast:
Friday will be occasionally wet with moderately heavy showers,some prolonged and mostly in the pre noon peroid, about 30 mms.
Saturday will be cloudy, with showers in the afternoon time. Evening may see an odd shower. Rain 25 mms.
But Sunday rains will increase to 35 mms, and peak on Monday, with heavy rains during the daytime, to around 60-75 mms.
(Forecast valid/subject to change if system deviates from expected/estimated lines).

Mumbai Colaba received 59 mms in the 12 hrs till 8.30 pm on Thursday, and S'Cruz 29 mms in the same time gap.
Was a bit taken aback and surprised when i heard thunder around 3.30 pm today in south Mumbai. Was i imagining it, or was it some other urban city noise? Please confirm if anyone had heard thundering ? Recorders of "thunder in Mumbai" please clarify ?

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Stage 1 of our estimate is surprisingly on schedule. Today, 28th. we see the formation of a 1002 mb low off the A.P./Orissa coast. Like I mentioned, this should now deepen, to at least 996 mb for a "major" effect along its path,( Whichever path it takes) and along the west coast. But contrary to my expectations, it is precariously close to the coast, and i feel it may not deepen much. Anyway, lets wait i see, i may be proved wrong. Also we see the winds picking up along the Kerala/Karnataka coast, rushing towards the nascent low. See map of accumalated rains). Hope my presentation is clear and precise this time ! :)
We see the monsoon axis, seasonal trough, running along the line joining the seasonal low in Sindh, thru a 1002 mb low embedded in the trough towards the new low in the bay.
Hence, we could see some rains along this line next 2 days. The erstwhile low, having drenched Gujarat, has weakened into the sindh desert, and should dissipate by tomorrow. Rainfall along the sindh coast and interiors will decrease and diminish from Thursday evening, as the low dissipates.

Mumbai,utilise this lull till the new low deepens and crosses the coastline. (Maybe by Thursday night/Friday??)

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Extraordinary Desert Rain !!
And the Rains continue to lash Gujarat !
Sure, I did mention yesterday that there is 1 more day of rains there, but least imagined it would be with such vigour !

Kutch and Jamnagar districts bore the brunt.
Heaviest amonst the Gujarat rains as on Tuesday morning ( 24 hrs) were:
Kutch : Abdasa:103 mms, Anjar: 190 mms, Bhachau: 173 mms, Bhuj: 73 mms, Gandhidham: 100 mms,
Mandvi*: 449 mms, Mundra:116 mms,Nakhatrana: 95 mms, Rapar:104 mms
* Mandvi we discussed yesterday had recieved 124 % of its seasonal rain. But with another whopping 449mms, its got more than 250 %, with all the season's rain in a day yesterday !!
These are phenomenal for a day's rain. C'mon, this is desert territory, not a coastal region.
Kutch, has by now measured 97 % of its season's rain till Tuesday morning.

And another rain battered region,Jamnagar:
The 24 hrs rainfall as on Tuesday morning:
Jamnagar city: 466 mms,Jodia: 212 mms, Khambhalia:208 mms,Lalpur:164 mms,Kalyanpur:155 mms and Dwarka :97 mms
This district has by Tuesday recieved 97% of its season's rainfall !

Now, with Mumbai Colaba having reached its season's total, it can afford to adhere to our estimate of 2/3 days of "rest period". Required for "cleaning up" and restoring roads !
Today (Tuesday) morning, the Colaba rains for this season totalled 1923 mms. And the season's normal quota till Setember end is 1920 mms.
So, all in excess now ! I'm not talking about the lakes, mind well !

Monday, July 26, 2010

The "red" region are now turning towards "green' !
And what we have discussed and hoped for in Friday's blog, is precisely what has occured !
The system a well marked low on "landing", moved thru Chattisgarh, M.P. and is today (Monday) over the Gujarat region. In its trail, it has precipitated heavy rain in M.P. and almost throughout Maharashtra.
Sunday/Monday Rains in Maharashtra/M.P (cms): Damoh 25.4, Jabalpur 16.0, Guna 11.5, Durg 11.2, Raipur 7.5, Wardha 6.5, Amraoti 4.8,
Gondia 4.7.
Other Centres with copious rains in the peninsula and Gujarat regions (cms): Mahabaleshwar 29.1, Deesa 11.1, Bhira 10.4, Jayapura 9.9, Agumbe & Ratnagiri 9.1 each,
Kollur 8.0, Panjim (Goa) 7.8, Gandhinagar 7.6, Satara 7.4, Kolhapur 6.6, Sankeshwar 6.5, New Kandla 6.2, Ahmedabad 6.1, Gudallur 5.5, Belgaum (Sambra) & Siddapur 5.4 each, Honavar 5.3, Devala 4.5,

Adjoining East Rajasthan (cms): Bilaspur 8.0, Udaipur 7.7, Erinpura Rd. 6.4, Chhachhrauli 5.6, Mandi 5.5, Chittorgarh 3.6,

As mentioned ,"rain starved" Mahableshwar received 291 mms in 24 hrs ended Monday morning, and the total for the season jumped to 1986 mms, still 850 in the deficit.

Gujarat state is getting ample precipiation with Mehsana & Banaskantha districts feeling the brunt with Khadi 293 mms, Becharji 270 mms, Dhanera getting 233 mms, Dantiwada 155 mms, Detroj 154 mms, Kalol 125 mms,Virangam 124 mms, and a lot of stations receiving between 60-120 mms. And with 1 more day of rainfall yet for Gujarat tomorow (Tuesday).
When the water lakes &reservoirs fill up in the desert region of Kutch, there is a ceromony and celebrations amongst the villages. The residents of many Kutch villages yesterday distributed "ladoos" and had a small puja on the waterfronts. The district has had good rains this year, with Mandvi having already received 124% of its seasonal rains, 465 mms against an normal of 365 mms.
On an average, the other towns in Kutch have got around 60% of the normal season's rain.

Now, with the system tracking west, 1 more day's rain for Gujarat, and a decrease in rainfall for Maharashtra. System may move the sindh coast, precipitating rains.
Mumbai will see a decrease in rains from Tuesday. With a chance to "clean up the roads", as the city will get just about 20 mms/ day. A respite for the next 2/3 day is imminent.
Mumbai Colaba rains are just shy of 40 mms to reach the rainfall total of the full season, 1920 mms !

The axis of the monsoon extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. and passes through Bhuj, Indore, Jabalpur, Jamshedpur, Digha and thence southeastwards to east central Bay. The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persists

With the axis down south now, Look out for the next low forming in the central bay ! An initial low of 1002 could be expected in a couple of days. A rush of winds onto the Kerala/Karnataka coast, and towards the nascent low could be expected.

Flash Report from Shiraz:
Mahableshwar deluge: 291 mms rain in 24 hrs ended 08.30 am Monday !

Sunday, July 25, 2010

For Those Interested. Details of Current US Heat Wave.(From Mark).


Frank Roylance Blog (Baltimore Sun Newspaper)
Temperature record falls at BWI-Marshall The official temperature for Baltimore topped 97 degrees sometime between noon and 1 p.m. Saturday. By the 1 p.m. reading it was 99 degrees, breaking the old record of 97 for the date, last reached in 1987.
UPDATE, 3:15 p.m.: The temperature at BWI reached 100 degrees at the 3 p.m. reading Saturday. The dew point is 72 degrees, yielding a Heat Index value of 110 degrees. It is the sixth day of 100-plus temperatures at BWI this year. That has happened in only three other years since record-keeping began in 1871 - in 1900, 1930 and 1988. Earlier post resumes below:

-3.00PM ET: Williamsburg, Virginia is currently 108 degrees according to AccuWeather News Summaries
-2.14PM ET: Feels-like 112 degrees at Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, 104 degrees at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 100 degrees at LaGuardia, New York
-2.05PM ET: Washington DC currently at 99 degrees, feels-like 107 degrees.
-2.05PM ET: Norfolk, Virginia currently at 104 degrees, feels-like 117 degrees.

More details on Mark's Blog Here.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Mumbai city and the konkan coast was lashed by heavy rains on S
Winds from the Arabian Sea rushing into the Bay Low, pushed moisture and rain clouds into the Maharashtra coast. As mentioned, the winds picked up really fast after the forming of the low. And rains commenced in the city early
Saturday morning.
Now, the system should move west, and will be over East M.P/Vidharbha/Chattisgarh by Sunday. As the peak intensity is done with, the rains along the coast may sober down to some extent on Sunday.

In the 9 hrs, from 08.30 am till 5.30 pm, Saturday, Mumbai Colaba measured 135 mms and S,Cruz 97 mms of rain.
On sunday night, city should get another spell of heavy rains, and the night rains should measure about 35-40 mms, adding upto aroound 170 mms in 24 hrs ending Sunday morning. Sunday rains will be heavy at times, but not as consistent as Saturday,and more spaced out. With somewhat frequent showers, Sunday should guage up about 60-75 mms.
As the system moves towards west M.P, a slight increase in rains on Monday would be expected, to about 75 mms.
Tuesday, I would see some decreasing of the Mumbai rains.
Interior Maharshtra, and ghats rains will decrease after Tuesday

By Tuesday, system would have crossed Gujarat, with a tendency to move back into the Arabian Sea.It would not be out of place to expect some rains on Tuesday, (when the system will re-emerge),along the Karachi coast.
COLA estimates the new low in the Arabian Sea to move into Oman.

The Northern belt, already reeling under floods, will get a respite from rains next week. Central India will get the brunt of heavy rains this weekend.And Gujarat form Sunday thru Tuesday should get good rains.

Its on now! Another low could be expected to form in the bay around the 27th/28th. a off shoot pulse from the latest typhoon in the Pacific.

Reporting at 11 am, on Saturday.Dark and very overcast ! That is what Mumbai is today morning. With heavy rains, 80 mms/hr rate at times, my estimates/forecasts have been pre poned by a day.Revising my Saturday forecast, I estimate Mumbai should have a very wet weekend. What was anticipated on Monday, as per my blog yesterday, has occured and taken place 24 hrs ahead of estimate.
What happened ? The low, has formed in the bay, off the Orissa coast, and before we could say "jack robinson", it has intensified to 996 mb, and spread its clouding far and wide. As if to say "sorry for the delay" it has come and swung into action almost instantly.

And the prevailing/existing low has all but vanished, or merged with the new low.
The flows towards the low from the Arabian Sea off the Maharashtra coast too were swift, and started almost "overnite," Resulting in intense clouding and heavy rains commencing all along the Konkan coast. Surely taken aback with the speed and "efficiency !
Hopefully, maintaining its momentum, the low will move inland across the heart of India, and rewind my forecast put up yesterday, along similar lines, by 2 days.

Friday, July 23, 2010

The sea level low which had formed a couple of days ago in the bay, is now just inland ,near Orissa.and at 996 mb.Seen in the evening map from Thai Dept.
Expected to weaken fast, it should precipitate some rains along its path following the axis corridor.
Before this current low, if you remembe
r, an UAC had tracked thru central Ind
ia and had remained stationary over
N.Gujarat/rajasthan. As expected, the map enclosed shows the UAC now along the international border, and should move westwards into sindh region..

We can expect rains along the sindh coast and southern interiors of the region for the next 2/3 days.Karachi sho
uld may receive about 10 mms of rain Saturday/sunday, with a bit more (40-45 mms) on Monday/Tuesday.

My observation as mentioned before, is that there has been a dearth of lows and depressions from the Bay of Bengal. There should be the lows that track westward/northwestward thru cent
ral India bearing heavy rains.
Now, this is all because of sparse and few western Pacifi
c typhoons. In fact only one before the current Chanthu. These typhoons send pulses westward into the Bay.

Now,the weather system to watch will be another low forming near the head of the Bay by the 24th./25th, substantiated by the today's UAC seen in the map.
We have hopes from this system for good rainfall in the deficit regions, and anticipate the system tracks westward through the heart of Indian region to the
Arabian Sea during the following week.The NCEP/GFS rain accumalation map of the next 7 days indicates the path of the low, which I pray turns out to be correct.

Mumbai's lakes measured good rains last 2 days. The rainfall on Thursday was Tulsi-150 mms, Vaitarna-140 mms, Tansa, Vihar, Upper Vaitarna, Bhatsa-80 mms each.
Mumbai will see a brighter Saturday, with sunny spells. Sharp showers on Saturday/Sunday will be less frequent and shorter in duration.Rain guage will measure upto 20 mms on saturday.
Rains intensity will subsequently increase from Monday.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

The seasonal average as on 21st. July for India is now at -14%, from -13% last week. For this last week the rains were -17%
The position as on same date for the last 5 years was: 2005: 0%, 2006:-14%, 2007:+11%, 2008:-2%, 2009:-19%, 2010:-14%.
Notice the deficit is in the belt which would be normally covered by the passage of depressions from the bay. Hitherto absent this year.
The off shore trough off the west coast has kept the region in the normal range, while the monsoon axis interacting with W.Ds has kept the anomaly normal in the north.
The A.P.coast, T.N, and Rayalseema regions are in excess.But here, the rains are anyway not too heavy, and a heavy spell pushes up the average.For eg.T.N. needs only 87 mms to remain normal and with 157 mms, it is in excess.

The blog poll has a majority of votes for the last category, -5 to -10%.
Heavy rains lashed Saurashtra region of Gujarat as a result of the south westerlies rushing in and the formation of a low in the bay. Heaviest rainfall figures for Wednesday: Visavadar: 396 mms, Talala: 225 mms, Kodinar: 205 mms, Dhari: 142 mms, Valsad: 139 mms, Bhagasra: 124 mms, Mahuva: 115 mms,Upleta: 107 mms, Doraji: 105 mms.

Reproduce from "Vagaries" of 16th:
" From this weekend, I maintain of good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan (refer my blog ).Again,I am encouraged by the he FNMOC forecasts which shows heavy rain over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan border and then moving further into N.Gujarat/Rajasthan during this period, when,all parts of the State are expected to receive rains during the week ending July 22".

Reproduce from "Vagaries" of /19th20th:
" Mumbai received 30 mms of rain on Sunday, pushing up thr total further upto 1479 mms at Colaba and 1433 mms at S'Cruz. Monday/Tuesday will be partly bright, with passing rain showers, not too prolonged. With rainfall of about 25 mms/day. Wednesday will be windy and an increase in rain intensity to 75 mms. Possibilities of sudden heavy showers."
"Rainfall increase, upto 75 mms/day, in Mumbai from Wednesday thru Friday due to stronger off shore winds and possibility of low in bay."
Impact: On Wednesday, Mumbai received frequent rains throughout the day and was windy. Rainfall at Colaba 84 mms.And S'Cruz 94 mms.
UAC* has moved inland (Map), and the winds have turned to due west.
Impact on Mumbai/Gujarat will be heavy on Thursday.
I mentioned 150 mms yesterday for 3 days, out of which 90 mm are done with. Should get another 100 mms.

* UAC is Upper Air Circulation.Short framed by me due to frequent use :)

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

An UAC has formed in the bay today,(link here). "Vagaries" estimate, and insistance, of 21st. has been proved right.
Well, I would put the system as almost a low at MSLP, as seen in this Thai map.
As indicated, the double effect has geared up on the west coast, specially the Konkan
region.Strong south-westerlies are blowing on the coast.and should continue.
Some of the heaviest rains along the Goa/Maharashtra coast as on Wednesday in cms were: Mapusa-24, Sangamneshwar-21, Kodinar-17, Dodamarg, Gaganbawda, Margao, Pernem-15 each, Dapoli-14, Valpoi, Sanguem, Guhaghar, Ratnagiri, Lanja-13 each, Quepem-12, Malvan, Sawantwadi, Chiplun-11 each.
And the good news ! Reports from Shiraz speak of the Mahableshwar lake overflowing today evening, but about 20 days behind the normally late June overflowing date. Consistent rainfall from Mahableshwar reported 77 mms last night, and about the same in the day today.

Mumbai too, recieved good rains throughout the day on Wednesday. Should reach our estimated figure of 75 mms by tonite. Colaba had measured 66 mms till late evening (8.30 pm), and S'Cruz gauged up 50 mms in the same period.Thursday and Friday will have consistent frequent periods of rains, with a higher rain intensity on Thursday night.Watch for flooding Thursday night. Current 3 days may accumalate rains upto 150-175 mms in Mumbai.
U.S. Heat Wave
Your america today forecast
Though it's still very hot, highs will fall a few degrees today from yesterday in Las Vegas from 113 yesterday to near 110 today, whilst Pheonix actually rises from 110 yesterday to 112 today! Death Valley's may fall, like Vegas will from 123 yesterday to nearer 120 perhaps today... As for coastal California, it's going to continue cooling with a thicker marine layer in place and the thicker the marine layer, the tougher time the sun has burning it off, particularly when the land heating energy decreases slightly on the other side of the coast range. Los Angeles will likely see a cool morning with low down near 60 with a heavy stratus deck covering the basin and lapped up against the mountains, burn off will commence by mid-morning, giving way to party to mostly sunny skies by noon, breezes will increase out of the NW , holding temps to around 77 Downtown this afternoon.
southeast & florida
A torrid summer afternoon is in store with the thunderstorm threat reduced to under 20% for most today and it's all down to blistering sunshine and building heat throughout the Southeast today, tired of the summer heat and humidity yet? Highs today in New Orleans will warm to 88 with thunderstorms possible, if any, confined to nearer the Gulf where land heating and sea breezes can ignite PM storms. Inland where there's little in the way of clouds, it will reach a toasty 95 in Atlanta, 95 in Memphis, 96 in Charlotte and a scorching 98 in Norfolk, Va. Even throughout Florida, as the atmosphere is capped and the high builds, it's going to heat into the mid to even upper 90s in places, particularly inland locations. Drier air is crossing Florida, capping the atmosphere and supressing t-storm development. There is likely cooling breezes along the coast but these will likely not produce storms. Lows throughout will merely cool to the 75 to 81 degree level tonight!

detailed report of other regions of U.S. on Mark's blog.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

All India Rainfall from 1st. June to 20th. July.

Cherrapunji: 4854 mms(+282)
Agumbe: 2021 mms
Shirali: 2004 mms
Honavar: 1759 mms
Harnai: 1707 mms (+488)
Goa Panjim: 1660 mms (+197)
Karwar: 1655 mms
Mangalore: 1626 mms
Ratnagiri:1611 mms (+173)
Mumbai Colaba: 1485 mms (+432)
Mahableshwar:1043 mms (-1339)

Today's rain accumalation shows good rains in Punjab and H.P. 103 mms during the day in Simla and 76 mms in Amritsar.
And rain along the western off shore trough.
See any signs of a low in the bay off A.P.??

Rainfall increase, upto 75 mms/day, in Mumbai from Wednesday thru Friday due to stronger off shore winds and possibility of low in bay.

Monday, July 19, 2010

The upper air circulation over Rajasthan has moved on into Pakistan on Sunday. But, it has considerably weakened, and has not brought meaningful rains for Rajasthan yet. As estimated in "vagaries", the W.D. did interact, and rainfall was recorded in east Rajasthan, north M.P and Haryana as a result.
Continuing our discussion from yesterday's blog, the wind flow in the Arabian Sea off the west coast has gained speed from Sunday, and is now re-routed (after the demise of Conson) to flow across India into the bay, and thence north-eastwards.
As a result, we will see the west coast rainfall momentum keeping up this week. A burst of temporary "over strengthening" of the winds on Wednesday, 21st, will result in increased rains in Konkan on that day.
The Monsoon trough is seen slanting south-east from Rajasthan in the Thai Map. The Bay end of the trough can be deemed to be conducive to form a low off the A.P. coast by 21st. And hopefully, July will not end without a system !

The central regions along the trough, M.P, Vidharbh, Chattisgarh and A.P. will continue to get moderate rains. From 21st, coastal A.P. may get some heavy falls.
Rest of interior south will have scattered rains this week.

Mumbai received 30 mms of rain on Sunday, pushing up thr total further upto 1479 mms at Colaba and 1433 mms at S'Cruz. Monday/Tuesday will be partly bright, with passing rain showers, not too prolonged. With rainfall of about 25 mms/day. Wednesday will be windy and an increase in rain intensity to 75 mms. Possibilities of sudden heavy showers.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

For Mumbai,Sunday dawned bright, but frequency of rain has now increased. As estimated (on Wednesday), city should get the projected 40 mms. Further increase from Tuesday night thru wednesday, to 75 mms.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Mumbai rains and water position as on 15th. July:

Rainfall at Colaba: 1411 mms (+452)
Rainfall at S'Cruz: 1318 mms (+351)
Rainfall at the
Lakes:Vihar1500 mms,Tulsi:1100mms, Bhatsa: 865 mms, Tansa: 660 mms,Vaitarna: 562 mms, Upper Vaitarna: 504 mms.

Lakes Storage Full Capacity: 13.0 mllitres :
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July 2010: 2.42 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2009: 1.85 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2008 : 3.88 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2007: 6.23 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2006: 8.04 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2005: 8.67 mllitres
Average of last 5 years Storage as on 15th. July: 6.71 mllitres.

Normal Requirement of City /Month: 1.02 mllitres
Supply today/ Month: 0.87 mllitres
So Today, we have a stock of 3 Months supply !

Bikinis in Moscow: Northern Europe wilts in heat wave

From Russia's Urals mountains thru western Germany to Scandinavia, high temperatures hovering stubbornly in the mid-30s C has baked northern parts of Europe, which are usually spared the heat of the Mediterranean.
With the maximum in the day touching 34c in Moscow on Saturday, there was the rare sight of women in bikinis sunbathing Thursday in Kolomenskoye park in Moscow.
But it hasn't been all fun and games. The air-conditioning systems on board the high-speed trains of Germany's national rail operator Deutsche Bahn broke dow
n several times. With locked windows, dozens of passengers were afflicted with heat exhaustion after spending hours trapped in temperatures of up to 50 C (122 F).

And, drowning deaths were up in Eastern Europe as people flocked to seas, lakes and rivers in search of a break from the blistering heat. More than 230 people died in the last week alone across Russ
ia, with 21 perishing over two weeks in Latvia, according to officials,
On Friday, Finland, reported a 75-year record of 34.2 C , stocks were quickly running out of fans and air conditioners. The same happened in Germany and Hungary, where the mercury hit 37 C (99 F).

The highs in Europe on Saturday were:
Decimomannu ( Italy); 40c,Mostar ( Bosnia and Herzegovina): 39c
Lamia (Greece): 38c, Rome (Italy): 35c,Budapest (Hungary) :35c,Senkursk (Russia): 35c,Berlin & Liepzig: 35c. While the hottest in Germany was Cottbus at 36c.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Yes, I have read the IMD bulletin of the monsoon axis moving northwards,to the Himalayan foothills,and no systems forming in the bay.

But, prefering to stick to my estimate, as published in my blog,early next we
ek the axis will shift southwards, and have embedded systems within, from Sunday.Infact,I would visualise it a bit south today itself, with a low of 998 mb pulling it.See Thai map and make your own judgement,as things such as monsoon axis is always an imaginary thru a trough of lows with wind flow east above and west below.
FNMOC,of the US Navy also estimates,easterlies beginning to sweep the northern plains around this time, confirming the axis shifting south.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting quoted model predictions to suggest that the monsoon axis may lie along near-normal position during the next three days.

From this weekend, I maintain of good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan (refer my blog ).Again,I am encouraged by the he FNMOC forecasts which shows heavy rain over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan border and then moving further into N.Gujarat/Rajasthan during this period, when,all parts of the State are expected to receive rains during the week ending July 22.

The UAC,(in map) now over M.P. may move westwards, and with embedding in the
monsoon axis, may coincide with the rains in Gujarat/ South Rajasthan, this weekend.

Meanwhile,Tropical Storm Conson is expected to turn north-west hit southwest China coast,around Saturday.
Now, another factor !
After striking land, the wind flows from the Arabian Sea, now cutting across the peninsula, or rather by-passing the Indian lanmass, would get a relieving chance to readjust and give the go-ahead for monsoon flows to revive over the west coast from Tuesday (or approx.3 days after the typhoon hits land).
The flows are now being diverted to feed the Pacific storm.

All this, will coincide for the west coast around Tuesday/Wednessday, when a low is expected to pop up in the bay. The winds will gear up with double momentum, if the sequence really works out together.

Further into the following week, after 25th. we may see the rains dragging further west of India into coastal sindh region as a weak current.

Mumbai will continue to get the showers with bright spells its getting now till Monday. From Tuesday night, expect an increase in rains,upto 75 mms on Wednesday.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

As one reader has mentioned, the rainfall in this strategic region is very poor. Mahableshwar, the "water reservoir" of Maharashtra, is very important as it originates 5 rivers from its catchment. The most prominent, The Krishna river flows from the Mahbleshwar catchment down through the plains of Satara dist. rest of Maharashtra, thru A.P. into the Bay. The entire south Maharashtra and Ksishne Basin region of A.P. depends on the rains in this station.
This year, 2010, the station has recieved 890 mms till date, 14th. July, against a normal of 1920 mms required till date.
Last 3 years, end July totals are:
2006: 4733 mms
2007: 2118 mms,
2008: 1200 mms,
2009: 2662 mms.

The driest July was in 1899, with1084 mms during the month.
The highest ever seasonal rain was 10221 mms (1896)
and the lowest 3545 mms (1899).

But the rains are scanty in the ghats, and even though nearby Pune (60 kms away, but on the plains) has recieved 325 (+116) mms, and Satara, 60 kms away in the plains recieved 269 mms (_33). But,the actual rain days are less.
Rain days diagram of Pune and Mumbai (Coastal city) for rainy days comparison).
Another station, Lonavala, is also weak in rains this year.
As on end June, the rainfall there was 437 mms.

Last few years comparison of June shows the situation there.
2008: 1187 mms,
2009: 175 mms.
2010: 437 mms

What actually brings rains to the western ghats are depressions from the bay, not off shore troughs. Normally there should be at least 1 in June and 2/3 in July.This year, we have had none, and got 2 weak systems, that too UACs. Surprisingly, depressions are in drought this year, as are Pacific typhoons !

The UAC embedded in the axis is positioned over east U.P. and north-est MP. Rains in the region may can continue for another day.
The W.D. over North-West India and neighbourhood has continued to persist as an upper air system, and couldstay put for another two days.
This may result in moist south-westerlies interacting with the W.D. and bringing rains to the north-west region next couple of days.
W.D. or monsoon, rains are always welcome and needed.

Also, as mentioned yesterday, the monsoon trough is likely to shift southwards from Thursday. Central peninsula regions could then hope for a renewed spell, especially M.P.
Some models forecast an UAC forming over west/central M.P. around Saturday. This could result in good weekend rains over Gujarat. Also, we could see the northern end of the western off shore trough gaining strenght around weekend on the North Konkan/south Gujarat coast.
FAQ about the west coast: West coast will continue to get the on going moderate rains till Sunday, after which I expect some increase.

Mumbai: Same estimate of moderate 20 mms of rain, in sudden showers, Thursday thru Saturday.
Increase in rain frequency with heavy spells on Sunday/Monday, with around 40-50 mms of rain .

Yesterday in the blog, I mentioned that weather prediction models have estimated the formation of a low over the Bay by the 20th. and the
The Pacific has formed a typhoon, named Conson, which is bracing up to hit the Philippines. Conson, may stike Phillipines and after entering East China Sea, it could undergo further intensification,
This could have implications on the low in the bay. NCEP has also mentioned the formation possibility. (Some models/IMD mention of a low forming as early as Thursday. I personally think it could be around the 19th/20th).

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The North Konkan coastline continued to get some moderate rains due to the "compressed" off shore trough. The trough, as shown here, now lingers of the Gujarat coast down to north Konkan.

The 12 hr accumalated rainfall map shows the rain restricted to the northern-western coast, and theChennai region. The rain and the west-east cloud flow and cover from the Arabian Sea across the peninsula thru the eastern coast is due to an upper air circulation over the Thailand region. The wind flow is seen in this Thai map. Part of the clouding precipitated rains as seen in the image. Meanwhile, the monsoon axis is running thru the 2 lows shown in the Thai map, along the Northern plains, with a trough in the Bay.The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur, Karnal, Bahraich, Patna, Midnapore and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. The other branch of it has become less marked.

On Monday,Mumbai rains contined in moderation, with 15 mms in Colaba, and Santa Cruz measuring 57 mms. The off shore trough promises rain along similar lines Tuesday and Wednessday with sudden heavy spells. rains will measure about 25-30 mms/day, diminishing toa bit, to 20 mms Thursday.

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